Tony made a personal decision to leave.

 

is that why he was coming up as banned for awhile?

 

I tend to agree. One noteworthy aspect of the Eagle term sheet is the inclusion of rates for up to 76-seats and only arbitration if something larger should be flown. It also includes rates for larger turboprops. As such, it would seem they are confident of getting RJ's in the CRJ-700/900 and E-170/175 range to provide feed in the 64-76 mixed class range. The Q400 also seems to have a place. I would expect the above 5 aircraft to be the bulk of the replacement for AA feeders. Horton is open to merge with U, although it would appear he wants to do it after reorganization vs. Parker's before exiting. Regardless, it's then just then a matter of when, not if AA and U start canoodling. U mainline pilots fly E-190's I believe and thus when AA and U merge, it would seem to draw the line at 76-seats for the combined feed operation.

 

They also have Mesa flying 190s. Delta has 90 seat feed, USAIR has 90 seat feed, and UAL has near unlimited 70 seat feed. AA is miles behind the industry average.

 

I believe so.

 

Mesa doesn't fly ANY Embraer aircraft. Delta does NOT have 90 seat feed, nor does UsAir. Seats are restricted to 76 and 86 respectively.

 

86 mind as well be 90, i mean come on man. Also USAIR has a large amount of these 75/86 seater planes at the regional level. Someone posted this recently, in a graph. Also Delta has a limited amount of 86 seat jets but they have them at mainline. UAL has a boat ton of 70 seat jets allowed.

 

The same argument can be made with JetBlue and or Alaska! AMR has stated that they could see consolidation in the future but not necessarily with US Airways! PHL doesn't help with the issues AMR is facing in the NE, Delta is attacking AMR hard and fast, 7 flights were added between LGA/DFW this week I believe!

 

The smallest aircraft Delta operates is the DC9-50. It's configured to 125 seats in a 2 class configuration. Delta does not operate any 86 seat jets. The CRJ900's operated for UsAir with 86 seats are in a single class configuration. If AA wants to maintain a 2 class product in their larger RJ's, they'll be forced to fly the CRJ700 at around 66 seats and EMB175/CRJ900 at 76 seats.

UAL may have unlimited 70 seaters, but that is the seat limit....70. No one has scope that allows 90 seats. That's a fact.

 

Code-shares with the above are a certainty and merges at some point with one or both within the realm of possibility. As for the RJ's, AMR will get hundreds of up to 76-seaters, but above that, a limited amount and hopfully none. Remember that for every one of those 76-seaters, means perhaps 10 less new-hire slots at AA. That means much slower attrition from the top at Eagle and if some of Eagle's flying is parted out, that's not good.

In reading the Eagle term sheet, it looks like a current 50-seat topped out E-145 captain will be flying the 76-seater for about the same pay......actually less, considering the guarantee is 5 hours less. The TS ensures those rates via limits till 2016 and then 2016 comparison to the lowest out there till 2020 will mean that snenior topped-out captain will make about $80K/year till 2020. By 2019, if you're lucky enough to be one of those captains, the equivelent earning power in 2012 dollars would be about $50-55K/year, i.e., that pay stays the same, while inflation and increased health care make you 5% poorer every year. If you're stagnated junior to that, well...............

That is the future in store for a large portion of hopful regional pilots at least on the AA and possibly AA/U side as more and more mainline flying is replaced by these aircraft. It's a fabulous deal for airline managers, but the end of a profession for pilots.