How so? They are both meaningless in the fact that neither are legally enforceable numbers.

Because your not seeing the bigger picture, they rock bottomed it out so bad that people started flat out crashing the planes. This caused the laws to change (FTDT and 1500 hour rule). They made it such a bad industry that a handful of people are coming into this industry. Add into that the gas prices, and lack of much student loans, and the trickle keeps shrinking. You got 30,000-40,000 major airline pilots retiring in the next 20 years, many of which start over the next 3.

The last 10 years of churned up a huge storm when it comes to helping out the guys on the bottom, the current model is unsustainable. Everything goes in cycles.

Any news on PBS? We all know its coming, I think its a good thing if done right.

You nailed it rickt86, you said the "current model is not sustainable". That is correct. The model is going to significantly change. Always has, always will. Ask an old mainline guy if in 1990 they saw the RJ coming. Ask a retired mainline guy about the dawn of the jet age in the late 60's. That was a real pilot shortage, and they hired people without any flying experience, oh the humanity.

I don't discount the significance of the 1500hr rule change. But, that's just it, it's a rule change. Meaning, they can make another change to accomodate some shortage. Look at how quickly the retirement age went from 60-65.

BE76,

They are not equal if they try and take some of those planes for somebody else to operate.

you seem like a cool person.

http://static.tumblr.com/ldps02p/1l1...rolls_eyes.gif

NO SECTION 1113 MOTION HAS BEEN FILED IN BANKRUPTCY COURT TO ABROGATE THE PILOT AGREEMENT.

Until such a Section 1113 motion is filed, sworn tesimony is given by management, in court, regarding the fairness and equity of its demands, and ALPA has responded in defense of our 16 year industry average agreement, the bankruptcy judge has NO AUTHORITY to interfer - much less abrogate - the American Eagle Pilot Agreement.

ALPA is deliberately spreading a malicious lie to coerce the American Eagle pilots to vote "yes" on a sub-standard set of concessions that are not justified, and will never be justified, in bankruptcy court.



a employee of the National Mediation Board, who is an American Eagle employee on a five year leave of absence, and who coincidently was the past chairman of the ALPA MEC Negotiating Committee, was invited to attend the NY PUB event. It must be remembered that this individual was a tireless advocate on behalf of management for the sub-standard, unwarranted and unjustified concessions that the American Eagle pilots are fighting against today. His attendance at this ALPA sponsored event is a gross conflict of interest.

Section 1113 will be filed the very moment that this TA doesn't pass. Thats why is very important to vote yes.
Guys, we are NOT in negotiations, we are a bankrupt company with a judge deciding your fate.

The negotiations between the company and ALPA should not have begun until they have filed the 1113C process. Once they file the 1113 we have 51 days to negotiate. Time is on our side. The risk/reward of going to the judge outweighs this AIP that ALPA has just offered the pilots of American Eagle. The union members are falling hook, line, and sinker into what the managers and lawyers want for this company. Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt is how this company negotiates and they have our own union members spreading it like a cancer throughout the pilot group.

Are we bankrupt, or are we a profitable company who leads the industry in revenue units and are under bankruptcy protection for reorganization. there is a difference. How come they didn't file the mechanics 1113 yet, they voted it down and the company said they "may" file. They haven't filled 1113 for any Eagle workgroup as of yet, why is that... I don't know but there has to be a reason an is not kindness of heart!

American Eagle Holdings is hiring FA, Mechanics and ramp personnel. THe company will do what it will do, 43.1 million is not going to alter their plan, they will get saving one way or the other.

+1, I am voting no because of this, and because I want to send a clear message that TEAM TONY MUST GO!

Yesterday the mechanics got a new term sheet that the company says it will file and impose if granted by the judge.

"Today, we are presenting the proposed terms that the Company intends to implement, should the Bankruptcy Court grant our Section 1113 motion to reject our collective bargaining agreement with the AMT and Related employees. Absent a consensual agreement on this proposal, the Company intends to file its motion for rejection next week.
Today’sproposaldiffersfromtheoriginalMarch2s1t1113 proposalfortheAMTand Related group in that certain terms reflect the fact that the Company has agreed with some positions taken by the union negotiators, during the period that we’ve been negotiating, including issues of valuation. With the failure of our tentative agreement, this proposal reflects our best judgment on what the Company needs to successfully reorganize, and we will move quickly to take the steps necessary"

http://aa.twu.org/LinkClick.aspx?fil...%3d&tabid=1494

You are not sending anything by doing so. AMR will file 1113 next week to every group that votes NO.

I really doubt that!

so if we vote no, then we get a LBFO, so our current one is only the 2nd to last best final offer?? Sounds like a no to me.

Im a no vote just because they haven't filed it yet. Why give them concessions if we don't have Fleet Plan? The union said "No fleet plan, no TA", and suddenly "Ohhh we have a API"...

Screw them...

Btw anyone that have seniority number below 2,000 should vote no, why?

Because the so called "95% furloughs protection" is based in 200 planes.

if you between 2000 and 3000 seniority, you are not included in the furlough protection at all!!

You have been left behind! Its clear AMR has a plan to make Eagle a 200 airplane airline. The question at this point is when will that plan actually happen, and how many pilots will be here then anyway!

By the end of 2013. They are accelerating the retirements of the 135's-140's with a possible furlough of 1000 pilots.

Word from our side of the fortress is you guys are less than 270 airframes now; will shrink to 205ish before growing back to 230ish. The rest to be outsourced to other vendors.

Personally, I think Eagle will shrink to the 200ish and stay there as none of the regionals will be able to attract or retain pilots.

Was going to happen anyway. Just happening sooner.

all the above is just speculation at this point. All this is subject to the outcome of AA scope relief, the outcome of a merger, and the possibility we are sold or spun off. It also is subject to the ability to vendor out the flying and have it staffed properly.

This would all be fine if AA were actually going to start hiring and take the 824 sometime before they hit 65.

Yup it sounds like a NO brainer for sure! Why are we accepting anything prior to the company filing an 1113? We don't even know if they would file the same term sheet.
They have been negotiating with the union regarding the values assigned to each item on the term sheet and both sides have come to an agreement on those values. For example, the cost savings associated with PBS. It now has a much higher negotiated value than what was put on the original the sheet. The company would be foolish to file that term sheet after adjusting and AGREEING to the new values with the union.
Just say NO and make them file and play their hand.

My sources say less then that. The variable is how much Eagle might be part of any future AA/U consolidation. The combined carrier will have 10 regionals and perhaps 600 aircraft and how that all shakes out is still fluid. Eagle will almost certainly be a player, but could very well be 150-200 aircraft, but that will take time.

if it can hold out 5 more years, it wont matter because a huge shake out of movement will happen. If people want to admit it or not, the hard numbers have been posted on here, you have upwards of 40,000 retirements coming over the next two decades, with a good chunk of that in the next 5-8 years. I dont think there are even 40,000 pilots at the rj level. Weed out the idiots, weirdos, drunks, wife hitters, felons, crooks, and check ride flunky frequenters and your pool drys up more. This isnt any new knowledge.

The question on the airplane numbers is, AA is looking at up to 375 regional jets, Eagle has 250, your all thinking they can shrink 50 more planes and bid out 175, all in the next 3 years. This would be a stand alone picture, but IDK, its a rough market. I still think they want to spin this company off, and let it go to town on the free market of regionals. Its claimed to be the most profitable regional, and that's factoring in an industry average fee for departure rate.

EF how do you come up with 10 airlines, since there are only about 4 holding companies left that can bid for AA/USair flying. Transtates holding (TSA/Compass/blowjets), Skywest Holdings (skywest/asa/expressjet), and Rah (republic/shuttle/chq). PNCL is out of the game and is basically a unit of delta, and air willy is out of the came and is basically a unit of us air. Mesa is the only other player. You have some turbo prop units, but that is all I can think of. They can come up with all the funny names they want, some of which are thanks to AA to begin with, actually most are, ie at TSA and RAH. You got 4 players left anymore, RAH, Skyw, and Mesa, thats it. If the majors start hiring you got 3 companies that cant staff their flying.

JJ has his sources. Or so he claims.

US Air Express:

1) Mesa
2) Piedmont
3) Republic
4) Sky West
5) Air Wisconsin
5) Tran States
6) PSA
7) Colgan (not any more)
8) Eagle (?)

His number was a little hight but the premise still stand, US Airways has the most regionals doing the feed for them.

9) Chautauqua

-------------------

Delta isn't far behind.

Pinnacle
Skywest
ExpressJet
GoJet
Compass
Shuttle America
Chautauqua
Silver

As what pointed out (a wierd sentance........:rolleyes:), my number was a bit high as I was estimating the number of current combined U and AA feeders. My point was regarding the combining of AA/U, not stand alone AA. In that case, that will leave too many feeders and consolidation and elimination will occur as part of streamling feeders. I expect Eagle to still be a player, but smaller then present. Unfortunately, the economic pressures on regionals will continue if not increase due to the 3 legacies adopting or strengthening their whipsaw models of several feeders under staggared contracts that must periodically rebid for their flying and the future AA will be more aggressive then the others if history is any lesson. This reality will only put less leverage in the pockets of regional pilots and thus the compensation packages including minimal staffing and poor scheduling will intensify. If AA stands alone (the least likely result of this BK fiasco), then Eagle will indeed see at least one and likely 2 others come in for part of that flying. The premise Eagle can muscle others aside for future contracts flying for DAL or UAL is uncertain, but IMO carriers already entrenched at those networks are more likely to remain provided they captitulate to the economic demands of their daddy legacies and that doesn't bode well for Eagle future industry prostitution efforts.

The future AA (merged with U) will likely allow for 75% of its domestic narrow-body fleet ops to be provided by Catagory A and B operators and that is likely to be approximatley 650 or so aircraft, which is about what is currently being operated across the board for both carriers. The major change will be the proportionate increase (35% of scope) in larger RJ's up to the E-175/CRJ-900 size which would be perhaps 300 aircraft and another 350 smaller RJ's and some turboprops (45% of scope), most of which would be E-170, CRJ-700 or Q400 types. Eagle will play a part, but a smaller part then present. 200 aircraft for Eagle would be almost 1/3 of the total ops and that would likely mean 3 regionals, if all of similar size, but my guess is 4-5 regionals (one of which may be all turboprop), so 150-175 aircraft for the former Eagle is not an unreasonable assumption. Of course, this would require a period of transition and during that period the combined mainline operation which includes operating catagory C aircraft like the E-190 and CRJ-1000 will be mostly a replacement scenario UNLESS aircraft deliveries for AA slated as replacement aircraft over the next 5 years or so (2018) are switched to expansion which would mean most of the S80's will be pressed for another 5 years or more. Under that possibility, the "expansion" aircraft due AA post 2018 would then become replacement. This MAY be the "sneaky" part of the future plan for AA/U, i.e., the reversal of "replacement" and "expansion" aircraft to allow rapid expansion on top of theat provided by the merger of the new combined carrier to overtake the others rapidly AFTER the merger is consummated and if that occurs then your assumptions of significant (but not huge) "shakeout of movement" would indeed likely occur, but I digress.......

Should the above possibility not occur, then expect no real increase in mainline size and likely even contraction as the larger RJ's take more of the mainline pie and thus considering that retirements at most of the mainline carriers between now and 2018 are NOT that high (they increase dramatically after about 2020) and the increased pressure for many to fly until they drop or age 67/70 arrives, which ever is sooner will likely mean another period of stagnation and in the AA case, transition for the pilots who fly for its feeders. Yes, a large number of U east pilots would be gone within 5-7 years, but how much of that is taken over by catagory A and B feeder ops and the overall size of the future AA is a question mark. As far as the future of Eagle and its pilots pie is, think of it as shuffling of the deck chairs with perhaps 65-70% of the chairs needed. Thus the 1000 or more Eagle pilots "furloughed", might actually be simply trnasitioned to another carrier picking up that feed with new deliveries replacing Eagle's E-135/140/145's. In fact, Parker has already mentioned that specifically as a consideration. If you get whacked rick, it may mean you spend little or no time on furlough, but may start as a new hire at another AA feeder.......unless of course, greener pastures beckon. The majority of the "transition" for Eagle will occur BEFORE that "5-8 year good chucnk of retirements" which actually aren't really that good until AFTER that 5-8 year window. 67 or 70 will throw another 2-5 years of delay there as another possibility.

Still several paths available, but with the fresh NDA between AA and U, it seems more clear these two are eventually going to be canoodling. Since they both are now going to be privy to each others buysiness plans going forward, if they do not consummate their courtship it's going to leave both in an akward position going forward from a competitive standpoint, no ?

To me it seems obvious AA and U are destined for marraige (hopefully for the pilots, not a stormy one), it's just a matter of timing. In 5 years as a 4th year F/O flying an E-175, you then might have the opportunity to jump to AA mainline and fly the E-190 for $40/hour and that's when the big bucks start rolling in (Louie Anderson in "Coming to America"). ;)

See the above in bold, 6 holding companies would be involved.

Its only 4 companies, the RAH units are one seniority list, so you can make as many names as you want, its one company. Skywest and EXJT are 2 lists for now, but still one company. Pinnacle is a hair from being a wholy owned in principle.

If they do not marry up, I think it leaves USAIR in a much worst position than AA. Usair has no wide bodies in the big picture, I think less than 15? AA has near that many 767-200s. USAIR NEEDS AA, I am not sure AA needs Usair. I am no Harvard grad, with a JD in business, but it seems to me AA could raise the capital for a Jetblue or Frontier, to provide them with a growth spurt via competition elimination, as well as ripe them up for the Airbus's. Buying USAIR is not much different than buying Southwest in all reality.

I think Alaska is the PERFECT match for AA, and I would not be surprised if AMR follows the United model, and gets out of BK and then guts the place to become ripe for the RIGHT buy out (Alaska). This is not exactly like CAL taking over UAL but it is similar (minus the large airplane order by AA). Alaska has a low debt ratio, and could easily raise the capital if AA was a proper suitor. I guess time will tell. I also think Jetblue is not a bad unit to the mix. I think Jetblue is a much better option than Frontier, however anyone with Airbus's seems to be needed going forward.

Just my opinion but I think the USAIR deal sucks for AA. Another TWA, in many ways. I just think better options are out there. USair is 90% a North America airline, with airplanes that are fairly dated (older 737s, and the PDT Dashs). The hubs are not that great, even CLT is a market losing its appeal. Not to mention the possible labor disaster. Once the dust settles and its time to complete the marriage, I think people will be realizing the mess they got in to, and wanting an annulment, like waking up married to a stripper after a drunk night in vegas.

All Frontier has to offer is an Airbus program and AA is well on their way on the AA program, Frontier has gone down to shuttling people in and out of DEN with their low prices, do you think AA will want to enter DEN and compete with Southwest and United?

We know how AMR is with the books and their finances, what makes one think that they will disclose all of their "secrets". This could very well be just a posturing move, AMR was quoted yesterday as saying that they have enter into NDA with others but won't comment on who at this time. Much going on behind the scenes that we don't know about... Just follow the money.

Agree U needs AA more then the other way, but now both will know what the others plans are. If AA goes alone (or another path, i.e. Jet Blue, etc.), then U is a fragmentation target to be picked up by others (perhaps some of it even by AA). I can't see that working out for Parker, unless he gets the control yoke of AA (he won't be touching anyone elses controls, that's for sure). No, something's up, it's just a timing issue if you ask me. In fact, I think they've already agreed to a framework for moving forward as they needed that understanding BEFORE each agreed to let the other look under their respective dresses to examine the goodies.........and the goods. ;)

Alaska is fiercly independent and their model and culture works well for that. Any closer alignment with AA (or others) only strengthens that. I think AMR knows that any realtionship with Alaska would be tenuous and that is why the language in the 1113 (and failed TA) allows for the domestic ASM's that the eskimos would fly to be shifted elsewhere should that relationship flop. I'll bet Frontier and its busses and 190's could be picked up for a song from Bedford considering he's losing his ass in Denver, especially now that Southwest is targeting that city. He's been trying to unload that albatross for awhile and in fact, if his other operations are guaranteed feed contracts and pieces of the future catagory A and B flying for AA/U, I could see him easily being brought aboard. He has a great reputation for hammering his regional pilots as well, which is always a boon in this business. I hate to say it, but you may even find yourself under his employ in the not too distant future. :(

Well, most all AA pilots would prefer a stand alone AA that expands internally, but that wouldn't solve the problem in the northeast with slot controls. Airlines merge and remorph themselves over time with hubs, etc., so nothing new there. AMR used to be a leader back in the Crandall days, but I think we can all agree they've not only been followers since then, but tail-end charlie's to boot. Not going to waste energy flapping the TWA rug and putting all that pointless dust in the air as it serves no purpose going forward. This won't be an "asset acquisition" with an "offer of employment" of an ailrine with 3 months operating expenses in the bank anyway, but a full blown merger of two essentially financially healthy airlines that just have competitive disadvantages seperately that can be solved together.

Just my opinion as it's ALL opinion here.

You're getting a little ahead of yourself there. SkyWest and ExpressJet are still 3 lists (+ASA). I'm not holding my breath on it becoming 2 lists anytime soon and 1 list is highly doubtful.

The only NDA even sent out was to U. The only reason it's gotten this far is the UCC has demanded it, but in return they've agreed to cirlce their wagons around AMR management, especially in regards to those pesky and uncooperative pilots. :rolleyes:

The UCC has members with short-term "quick payoff and be gone" interests like the banks and long-term players like the aircraft manufacturers. AMR management wants to control the merger for maximum payoff and at this point save face and avoid any scenario that gives the appearance labor (especially the pilots) have beaten them and Parker wants to get his AA CEO's seat. The pilots want a competitive and fair contract. I think everyone wants a robustly competitive future carrier that is profitable in the future.

Tsk, tsk..........how to get everyone what they want ?

It's possible, but just a matter of pressure and time (and timing). A new group of smaller creditors has now banded together with claims of equity infusion to strengthen AMR's standing as well as BA willing to jump into the sack and thus the tug-of-war changes direction almost weekly, because although the two players playing go back and forth,......... Parker-AMR-Parker-AMR, others have a grasp on the rope as well, like the UCC, the pilots, a judge and now a smaller group of creditors and other investors. A tug of war with too many players takes time to sort itself out, but time changes the the pulling strength of the players and exclusivity can alter that overnight. Ultimatly though, for the final disposition to the satisfaction of all parties to occur, a stable pilots CBA is imperative, if you ask me.

doesnt the scope suck in the TA between AA and USAIR???

No to stir the pot but SCOPE will suck under any agreement, the senior guys (most) are like management, they care about short term payout since they will not be here longterm, they care about getting their pay but will turn around and tell us how we are dragging the industry down when they keep selling the jobs away. Yea Eagle is the enemy, but fail to realize that we fly what they give away or in this case forced.

Delta pilots sold larger RJ for pay, didn't matter what the TA had those CRJ 200 were gone!

1 Paragraph of scope, 16 volumes of exceptions.

Depends on how you look at it. It's comparable to DAL's provisions, but nowhere near the disaster of AMR's desires. It allows for hundreds of E175's and CRJ-900's and hundreds more smaller RJ's, but aircraft larger then that go to mainline and the code-share provisions are leaps and bounds above AMR's wipeout proposals there.