It wouldn't surprise me to see a very low show rate, but if so, it would be no different for most regionals including Eagle. Fact is, there is a tsunami coming in the regional F/O business. The legacies and LCC's will likely not have a problem for several years finding pilots and you can usually keep older, senior regional captains, but VERY few pilots are in the pipeline for where it's going to be needed most and you need to fill the right seat to operate those jets. The college programs will fill a fraction of the needed requirement and outside of that there is virtually no one. My local airport is now a ghost town and the pattern is deserted on beautiful weekend mornings when in the old days it would be full, many of which were future airline hopefuls.

It will be interesting to watch the apparently clueless executives of the legacy carriers and "Big 3" networks figure out how to solve this impending disaster to their business models. SWA and other LCC's will benefit most and Delta made a step in the right direction putting less dependance of RJ's with their 50-seater for 717 move, but the others who are setting themselves up to depend on their in-house regionals or outsourced commuters may find their global networks crippled at the domestic feed level and watch brand new 76-seaters go from Canada or Brazil directly to Arizona for a scorpion fest in the next year or two. I still have my popcorn ready for the inevitable 3 stooges warm up to this comedy show. Of course, then they'll coming running to mainline unions begging for help, but this time they'll have to anty up. Fact is, they went too far in turning this profession into that of a glorified bus driver from a compensation persepective and now the ultimate result of that will soon be evident. They wanted that so bad they could taste it and have been intoxicated on that philosophy for the last 10 years. Well, sooner or later the hangover kicks-in and now it's time to pass the Ibuprofin.

"Be careful what you wish for" comes to mind.

The "proactive" moves I see so far are feeble at best and are but a fraction of what is needed. Eventually, they will come to the sobering realization they'll have to actually make this career attractive to get people to want to do it and in the long run it will have cost them more the way they did it (gutting airline pilots) vs. a more modest realignment of pilot compensation. You can smell this coming like dogs&#t.

I for one, can't wait.

 

I agree, I just hope the impending doom is as large scale as described above. I am grabbing my popcorn and adult beverage this **** is gonna be fun... .

 

I think some of you lack an appreciation for how politics work in this country. Mark my words, Congress will change the rules at the first sign inconvenience to mainline carriers.

 

haha ABSOLUTELY. order me 2 to start off with

 

I'm glad someone else said this. I too suffer from SDS......commuting sucks!

I'd gladly fly the Q, as long as it's out of the base I want. And for the record, it is not.

 

They can change any rule they want, but ultimately the laws of supply and demand will rule and OUT rule politics. This law is now a global one and that supply will never be met unless and until you make it attractive.

No cheap band-aid for this one.

 

The union's latest tactic is a letter-writing campaign to elected officials.

Yup, our contract negotiations literally depend on an act of congress.

 

ME TOO!!! fingers crossed that my base stays open for me to interview this summer.....

I'll take the Cessna 150 out of SDF please......

 

Really? I seem to remember a horrible event in Buffalo.

 

Planes start arriving in July for flying to commence on or around the 1st of August. Hiring has been continuous and they will continue to hire for sometime to staff up the AE operation.

New hires have a good chance of getting ORD. Keep in mind that if you get S5 ORD, you will never be able to cross over (under the current contract) to the RW side as an FO. So you could be stuck on reserve as S5 ORD, while people junior to you could end up with great lines at RW ORD. That said, there should be enough FOs upgrading out of S5 ORD that I think both sides are likely to offer good movement.

How long to hold a line is anyone's guess. For RW ORD, it would likely be months if not weeks of reserve.

Attrition is steady, but we are a big pilot group. Losing 30 pilots out of 3000 doesn't really make a huge difference in seniority progression.

Upgrade times: Right now, most junior CA awarded is about July 2007 hire (almost a 6 year upgrade). We have over 200 planes now (excluding F9), so an additional 47 jets will grant some new upgrades, but it's not going to provide a quick upgrade for anyone coming here as a new hire. Attrition to the majors is really the only thing that will get a 2013 hire into the left seat within the next decade.