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Old 06-27-2013, 12:05 PM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by Cubdriver View Post
Here we go again. $5000 is pocket change, salt peanuts, walking around money, disposable income when you are an airline looking at serious labor costs such as

• training and simulator time
• employee retention (loss) issues
• larger salary raises each year for employees
• starting salary increases to equal similar professions
• COL raises
• performance bonuses, I could go on.

BozoPilot, you regard what amount to petty lures as serious evidence there is a shortage of some type, but I totally disagree they are anything like that. They are simply cash lures hung out like cheap jewelry to lure people who are on the fence into doing something for short term advantage with no implication to the long term. Dime store candy. One-time retractable offers. When you see a 25% across the board salary raise for all line pilots working for the firm, or a 12.5% raise if you like to argue numbers, or maybe 5%- THEN you have evidence of a genuine line pilot shortage.



Yep. I am surprised how pervasive this delusion about a pilot shortage is. A few cheap, retractable incentives pop up at a few firms, and the downtrodden masses shout "pilot shortage" from the mountaintops. Pure baloney as far as I am concerned. It is wishful thinking driven by loads of prior hardship.
Everyone I know with ATP minimums has gotten multiple interviews and at least one job offer, I have been through the interview circuit recently with multiple job offers. It's pretty obvious there's a regional pilot shortage.
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Old 06-27-2013, 12:28 PM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by Cubdriver View Post
Here we go again. $5000 is pocket change, salt peanuts, walking around money, disposable income when you are an airline looking at serious labor costs such as

• training and simulator time
• employee retention (loss) issues
• larger salary raises each year for employees
• starting salary increases to equal similar professions
• COL raises
• performance bonuses, I could go on.

BozoPilot, you regard what amount to petty lures as serious evidence there is a shortage of some type, but I totally disagree they are anything like that. They are simply cash lures hung out like cheap jewelry to lure people who are on the fence into doing something for short term advantage with no implication to the long term. Dime store candy. One-time retractable offers. When you see a 25% across the board salary raise for all line pilots working for the firm, or a 12.5% raise if you like to argue numbers, or maybe 5%- THEN you have evidence of a genuine line pilot shortage.



Yep. I am surprised how pervasive this delusion about a pilot shortage is. A few cheap, retractable incentives pop up at a few firms, and the downtrodden masses shout "pilot shortage" from the mountaintops. Pure baloney as far as I am concerned. It is wishful thinking driven by loads of prior hardship.
Cubby I dont care if there's a shortage-just explain why they feel the need to be generous. Have they been in the past? Why now? Ive never once said theres a shortage btw. But you keep trying to explain why you bounce interviews by claiming that there's an abundance of pilots...
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Old 06-27-2013, 01:16 PM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by Cubdriver View Post
Here we go again. $5000 is pocket change, salt peanuts, walking around money, disposable income when you are an airline looking at serious labor costs such as

• training and simulator time
• employee retention (loss) issues
• larger salary raises each year for employees
• starting salary increases to equal similar professions
• COL raises
• performance bonuses, I could go on.

BozoPilot, you regard what amount to petty lures as serious evidence there is a shortage of some type, but I totally disagree they are anything like that. They are simply cash lures hung out like cheap jewelry to lure people who are on the fence into doing something for short term advantage with no implication to the long term. Dime store candy. One-time retractable offers. When you see a 25% across the board salary raise for all line pilots working for the firm, or a 12.5% raise if you like to argue numbers, or maybe 5%- THEN you have evidence of a genuine line pilot shortage.



Yep. I am surprised how pervasive this delusion about a pilot shortage is. A few cheap, retractable incentives pop up at a few firms, and the downtrodden masses shout "pilot shortage" from the mountaintops. Pure baloney as far as I am concerned. It is wishful thinking driven by loads of prior hardship.
Everyone I know with ATP minimums has gotten multiple interviews and at least one job offer, I have been through the interview circuit recently with multiple job offers. It's pretty obvious there's a regional pilot shortage.
The cycle will continue... The majors will suck up all the people that have been at the regional level for 6 to 10 years leaving most of the new hires behind until the next "so called" shortage in 20 years.
Enjoy your next 15 years at the regional level.
It will never end.
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Old 06-27-2013, 01:31 PM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by Bozo the pilot View Post
Cubby I dont care if there's a shortage-just explain why they feel the need to be generous. Have they been in the past? Why now? Ive never once said theres a shortage btw. But you keep trying to explain why you bounce interviews by claiming that there's an abundance of pilots...
Some suggestions. I think we both agree it isn't affection and desire to share the wealth, but it might be

-a way to get better applicants
-a way to get people who are still thinking Recession to update their applications
-a way to meet some unspecified deadline

Could be a lot of things, and pilot shortage does not need to be one of them. People rush to that conclusion. Even parked airplanes does not prove anything, there may be some other explanation like HR is weak, cash flow is bad, need to avoid some taxation, need to steer a contract negotiation- you name it. But everyone says "oh thank god there is finally a pilot shortage so my job will finally improve". It is not supported by solid evidence and everywhere you look there is evidence saying there probably is not one. Pilots like me get on these boards all the time and say, "I interviewed, felt good about what happened, and then I was sent home with 4 others out of 6". I am not buying "pilot shortage" with that going on, regardless of my own fate.
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Old 06-27-2013, 04:41 PM
  #25  
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Originally Posted by Cubdriver View Post
Some suggestions. I think we both agree it isn't affection and desire to share the wealth, but it might be

-a way to get better applicants
-a way to get people who are still thinking Recession to update their applications
-a way to meet some unspecified deadline

Could be a lot of things, and pilot shortage does not need to be one of them. People rush to that conclusion. Even parked airplanes does not prove anything, there may be some other explanation like HR is weak, cash flow is bad, need to avoid some taxation, need to steer a contract negotiation- you name it. But everyone says "oh thank god there is finally a pilot shortage so my job will finally improve". It is not supported by solid evidence and everywhere you look there is evidence saying there probably is not one. Pilots like me get on these boards all the time and say, "I interviewed, felt good about what happened, and then I was sent home with 4 others out of 6". I am not buying "pilot shortage" with that going on, regardless of my own fate.
Believe what you will- Ive referred 7 guys this year and only 1 got bounced-not sure what that means, but 4 regionals are aggressively recruiting now- I get the emails/phone calls 3x a month. I wish you the best of luck- some advice though: You seem to be well versed in arguing pointless points-Who cares about a shortage-Network, interview and wake up every day thinking about your goals. I can tell that you're a smart guy, now focus that intelligence and you'll succeed. Good luck- I truly mean it.
Im Sorry to the guys that need eagle interview info-lets get back to that topic. out
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Old 06-27-2013, 06:02 PM
  #26  
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Republic's bonus and fancy planes are quite literally sucking up pilots from other regionals.

The 5,000 dollar bonus is chump change, but it gets you the pick of an already proven labor pool. People are interviewing in MASSIVE numbers over there.
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Old 06-28-2013, 05:29 AM
  #27  
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I can show you guys hundreds of articles on this I've accumulated, but lets look at this from the World Aviation Training Conference & Tradeshow (WATS) a few days ago (some excerpts):

"the final session of the day looked at the issue of US regional airline pilot supply and demand, and was led by the Regional Airline Associations (RAA) Training Committee. According to Airlines for America, with some 27,000 pilots to retire between now and 2025, the community will need about 44,000 pilots. Complicating matters is pending congressional legislation for new hire F/Os, including 1,500 hours and an ATP. "

"Front and center was a pilot labor forecast research project by the University of North Dakota (UND). A mere 53% of instructors surveyed will choose the career full time, and 32 percent are re-thinking their plans due to the 1,500 hour rule. ExpressJet stated that the pilot shortage is already here - airline job fair attendance is down by 50%, their pool of applicants is nil, and only some 30% of applicants to the airline are actually qualified for a job offer.

Many of the airlines in attendance echoed the shortage theme. American Eagle had a pool of 500 applicants but today there are less than 100 in that pool. Few saw any relief in the immediate future, but all agreed that the industry needed to do a better job of marketing the career and to be Ambassadors of Aviation.

GoJet Airlines challenged delegates to consider going from the traditional Continuing Qualification (CQ) three day classroom and two days in the simulator, to just two in the simulator and incorporating on-line learning. These efficiencies were seen as helping to mitigate the personnel shortages. ExpressJet continued the theme with its discussion of AQP adoption and the lessons-learned. "

"The FAA opined that the new Flight Duty and Rest rule will increase safety but also increase demand for qualified flight crew members, which some see as further exacerbating the pilot shortage."

Extracting and Enhancing Human Performance | Halldale)

Call it what you want, but the regional airlines and the FAA are calling it a pilot shortage. Patience young grasshopper, your time is coming.
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Old 06-28-2013, 05:45 AM
  #28  
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Scott, my point was the shortage if there is going to be one is not here yet based on my experience. That's all. It may come at some point, probably will, but my practical experience after applying to all of, and interviewing at many regional airlines during the last few months tells a clear story that talk be damned, no regional is very serious about staffing shortages because they do not have them. That notion simply does not square with their actual hiring behavior. If there were a real shortage, or strong evidence of one, I would simply admit as much. I am not trying to salvage my own ego, I am in fact about to leave pro flying for other pastures because I can't find a job here. What's more, I think it is a disservice to other entry-level pilots to spread these ideas of a shortage when there is none. I have a decent although admittedly less than impressive resume, and yet I can't get an airline job. Similar for many others I know.

Last edited by Cubdriver; 06-28-2013 at 05:56 AM. Reason: clarity
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Old 06-28-2013, 06:39 AM
  #29  
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Sorry that things aren't working out for you Cub, probably not a reflection on you or your resume. I grew up in this industry, the airlines used to be some of the best run companies in the world: efficient and disciplined from top to bottom, and proud of it. Now they are their own worst enemies.

The regionals are beginning to see their end is near, another cycle that will put large numbers of pilots on the street and starting over at food-stamp wages. Starting pay will certainly go up, but even doubled, it isn't much money for the many middle-age pilots raising families and keeping a home who will be starting over. The execs at the majors are sitting back and waiting for it to develop, it will be good for them, very good. This is happening, the dollar signs are all lined up, and they are never wrong.

A guy like you will find a job, but will soon be competing with kids who have one year of training and experience, partially paid for by an airline who they owe. They will desperately work for peanuts to pay their debt and obligation, and you will be competing with them. This shortage is not reason to celebrate.
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Old 06-28-2013, 06:42 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by Cubdriver View Post
Scott, my point was the shortage if there is going to be one is not here yet based on my experience. That's all. It may come at some point, probably will, but my practical experience after applying to all of, and interviewing at many regional airlines during the last few months tells a clear story that talk be damned, no regional is very serious about staffing shortages because they do not have them. That notion simply does not square with their actual hiring behavior. If there were a real shortage, or strong evidence of one, I would simply admit as much. I am not trying to salvage my own ego, I am in fact about to leave pro flying for other pastures because I can't find a job here. What's more, I think it is a disservice to other entry-level pilots to spread these ideas of a shortage when there is none. I have a decent although admittedly less than impressive resume, and yet I can't get an airline job. Similar for many others I know.
I know people starting at eagle, expressjet, awac, republic, mesa, skywest, and commutair in July. None were military or prior 121. All received offers on their first interviews with the companies. All are just your average cfi/GA applicant. They all took interviews seriously studying ifr regs, jepp charts, interview gouges, basic 121 regs. When the interviewers tell you during the introduction that "they want to hire all of you, and your job is to not convince them otherwise" they are serious. The gouges were pretty accurate for where I interviewed at as well.
Getting hired isn't the end of the story either, you still have to pass training, getting hired won't solve your problems if you aren't prepared to be successful in training.
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