So upgrade is just shy of 7 years now?

 

Talked to some people in the know. Word is upgrade is going to drop HUGE next year with captains going to AA, Delta, United, Southwest, etc....

 

yes around 6 ½, there were many folks hired in 2007, but as you get to 2008-2010 the list isn't as saturated. For example I am an early 2011 hire and just under 400 numbers away from the most junior CA on the active list, I also have just over 600 FO below me active.

*** I think you will find that many regionals are in the same situation with a huge amount of guys hired in 2007, then in 2008 things slowed down and picked back up late 2010 early 2011. And you know these numbers are as such due to age 65 kicking in late 2007 and economic downturn 2008 with things improving in late 2010. Eagle was one of the first regional to hire in 2010 because they took delivery of 22 CR7 that were mostly growth at the time, then later in 2010 the flow thru started for guys who had numbers at AA. Hiring in 2011 was negligible as we furlough 50 folks and offered LOA to 100 IIRC. Anyway, on paper the upgrade time is 6 ½ years but there are many FO's who were hired in 2007 so it will take some time to work thru those, then things will speed up and then slow down again as you get into 2011 hires. But as you know things are fluid, you need the airframes to be able to have CA and the FO to be able to upgrade.

 

CAs will be going places but our fleet size will have more to do concerning potential upgrades than attrition.

 

Best thing you've said on these boards. FedEx hires w/any type of TPIC. Pretty much, everyone else too.

 

Absolutely!

 

I am logging TPIC in a crappy turboprop and I doubt FedEx will even look at me with no glass or jet time. Anyways, they aren't hiring anyone, so its a moot point.

 

Well, when the times comes, you won't know until you try

 

It's kind of misleading.

We did little to no hiring between mid '08 and mid '10.

Which means once the upgrades reach the 08 hires later this next year it will jump to the mid/late 2010 hires. So within the year upgrades will be around the 4 year mark. Possibly less.

 

I hope you're right.

My thought is that they will get some replacement to the EMBs and we will be a 150 airplanes with 1500 pilots in the next 5 years.

That would mean 2010 hires and early 2011 will be captains probably by 2015, and will keep moving on.