Eagle Vacancy Bid - Upgrades/New Hires
12-06-2013, 08:43 AM
#31
Line Holder
Joined APC: May 2013
Position: EMB-145 Left
Posts: 74
Originally Posted by SebastianDesoto
What makes you so sure upgrades will go into the 2008 hires? I'm a late 2007 hire and do not see upgrading next year as a probability.
This is a shrinking airline. 21 planes gone in 2014 is approximately 190-200 pilots less required. The flow is suppose to be metered, as said by Bartle (we know that can change). If the flow can get through 300 pilots next year, that would be amazing! But it is already partly offset by approximately 200 less pilots required. And I think 300 flowing is also very optimistic.
Now, you can reasonably assume the majors will take some captains here as well. But trying to estimate that is difficult at best. I'd love to hear some real expectations on that.
I'm not trying to doom and gloom. I believe there will be some upgrades and movement. That is a good thing. But I want some real hard facts and numbers, not projection based on feeling.
Currently, attrition is coming as much from the bottom as it is the top. Attrition never presents the same kind of opportunities that growth does.
This is a shrinking airline. 21 planes gone in 2014 is approximately 190-200 pilots less required. The flow is suppose to be metered, as said by Bartle (we know that can change). If the flow can get through 300 pilots next year, that would be amazing! But it is already partly offset by approximately 200 less pilots required. And I think 300 flowing is also very optimistic.
Now, you can reasonably assume the majors will take some captains here as well. But trying to estimate that is difficult at best. I'd love to hear some real expectations on that.
I'm not trying to doom and gloom. I believe there will be some upgrades and movement. That is a good thing. But I want some real hard facts and numbers, not projection based on feeling.
Currently, attrition is coming as much from the bottom as it is the top. Attrition never presents the same kind of opportunities that growth does.
12-06-2013, 09:47 AM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,216
Originally Posted by embraer
Be cool, baby. Your turn is right around the corner. Make sure your displacement preference has all the Captain options listed.
Momentum is the reason if you are looking for one. There is no reason for AMR to reverse the current trend of upgrades. In fact they will probably increase as the flows to American increase in 2014. Don't forget attrition.
If you want more than that then all I can say is wait until around February-ish. Big Pedro has a plan for L-Eagle which AMR/AAG has agreed to. They are waiting to exit bankruptcy before making it official.
They will also attach PBS to it, make no mistake. But, like I said: Get your displacement bids in order. Now.
Momentum is the reason if you are looking for one. There is no reason for AMR to reverse the current trend of upgrades. In fact they will probably increase as the flows to American increase in 2014. Don't forget attrition.
If you want more than that then all I can say is wait until around February-ish. Big Pedro has a plan for L-Eagle which AMR/AAG has agreed to. They are waiting to exit bankruptcy before making it official.
They will also attach PBS to it, make no mistake. But, like I said: Get your displacement bids in order. Now.
I'm not saying what you heard is not correct, because I have no idea quite frankly, but what's the significance of waiting another two or so months?
12-06-2013, 12:54 PM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Posts: 545
Originally Posted by Bozo the pilot
Not always. No absolutes.
Once all the military applicants dry up TPIC still won't make a difference. Already we are seeing FOs with zero PIC time being hired by majors. PIC is not as valuable as it was 10 years ago. It amazes me how some people still live in the past in regards to the "chasing PIC time" mentality.
12-06-2013, 01:38 PM
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: B737 /FO
Posts: 345
Originally Posted by RyanP
Places like emirates want jet glass time above 30 tons. Partially why I moved over to the CRJ7
If you are at a company that is insisting on more concessions which would put you in a position to suffer 2-5 years in working conditions you did not sign up for, I would highly recommend giving them consideration. At least if you are going to suffer through crappy work rules, get compensated for it
I got an acceptance letter from baby Emirates (flydubai) and they do not need the +30 tons. Jet time is a must. 737 Type rating is highly preferred.
12-06-2013, 02:25 PM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2011
Posts: 894
Originally Posted by SebastianDesoto
Thanks for posting that. Some people are discounting ME carriers and other foreign carriers (Air Japan). They do not need TPIC time and offer good pay to start. Not easy jobs to get, but they seem to be fine with getting disgruntled regional FOs, especially ones from Endeavor, PSA and Eagle.
If you are at a company that is insisting on more concessions which would put you in a position to suffer 2-5 years in working conditions you did not sign up for, I would highly recommend giving them consideration. At least if you are going to suffer through crappy work rules, get compensated for it
I got an acceptance letter from baby Emirates (flydubai) and they do not need the +30 tons. Jet time is a must. 737 Type rating is highly preferred.
If you are at a company that is insisting on more concessions which would put you in a position to suffer 2-5 years in working conditions you did not sign up for, I would highly recommend giving them consideration. At least if you are going to suffer through crappy work rules, get compensated for it
I got an acceptance letter from baby Emirates (flydubai) and they do not need the +30 tons. Jet time is a must. 737 Type rating is highly preferred.
Good luck if you go.
12-06-2013, 06:08 PM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2013
Posts: 2,594
Originally Posted by embraer
In fact the only thing "golden" these days is military flight time. Without that you are at a huge disadvantage. In particular at Delta and AA. All the TPIC time in the world won't make a difference.
Once all the military applicants dry up TPIC still won't make a difference. Already we are seeing FOs with zero PIC time being hired by majors. PIC is not as valuable as it was 10 years ago. It amazes me how some people still live in the past in regards to the "chasing PIC time" mentality.
Once all the military applicants dry up TPIC still won't make a difference. Already we are seeing FOs with zero PIC time being hired by majors. PIC is not as valuable as it was 10 years ago. It amazes me how some people still live in the past in regards to the "chasing PIC time" mentality.
12-07-2013, 12:06 PM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2010
Posts: 120
Originally Posted by Bozo the pilot
Agreed- my friends who chased pic Turbine in a TP are realizing it was not worth it. Pdt/commuteair etc.Hope it works out for them but theyre goin against guys with glass jet/military time.
I know some jet FO's and CA's getting on at United, Delta, Southwest.... but I don't know of anyone getting on at those places with just turboprop time, even with turboprop PIC.
12-08-2013, 06:24 AM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 122
Originally Posted by What
yes around 6 ½, there were many folks hired in 2007, but as you get to 2008-2010 the list isn't as saturated. For example I am an early 2011 hire and just under 400 numbers away from the most junior CA on the active list, I also have just over 600 FO below me active.
*** I think you will find that many regionals are in the same situation with a huge amount of guys hired in 2007, then in 2008 things slowed down and picked back up late 2010 early 2011. And you know these numbers are as such due to age 65 kicking in late 2007 and economic downturn 2008 with things improving in late 2010. Eagle was one of the first regional to hire in 2010 because they took delivery of 22 CR7 that were mostly growth at the time, then later in 2010 the flow thru started for guys who had numbers at AA. Hiring in 2011 was negligible as we furlough 50 folks and offered LOA to 100 IIRC. Anyway, on paper the upgrade time is 6 ½ years but there are many FO's who were hired in 2007 so it will take some time to work thru those, then things will speed up and then slow down again as you get into 2011 hires. But as you know things are fluid, you need the airframes to be able to have CA and the FO to be able to upgrade.
*** I think you will find that many regionals are in the same situation with a huge amount of guys hired in 2007, then in 2008 things slowed down and picked back up late 2010 early 2011. And you know these numbers are as such due to age 65 kicking in late 2007 and economic downturn 2008 with things improving in late 2010. Eagle was one of the first regional to hire in 2010 because they took delivery of 22 CR7 that were mostly growth at the time, then later in 2010 the flow thru started for guys who had numbers at AA. Hiring in 2011 was negligible as we furlough 50 folks and offered LOA to 100 IIRC. Anyway, on paper the upgrade time is 6 ½ years but there are many FO's who were hired in 2007 so it will take some time to work thru those, then things will speed up and then slow down again as you get into 2011 hires. But as you know things are fluid, you need the airframes to be able to have CA and the FO to be able to upgrade.
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