He's making a prediction of upgrade times for a new hire starting today.

Current upgrade time is about 6-7 years. Keep in mind that we have almost zero people hired from 4/08 to 4/10. For a list of about 2300 pilots, we only have 53 pilots on the seniority list from 4/08 to 4/11 (i.e. 53 pilots for 3 years on the seniority list). Historically, we lose about 30 guys a month or 360 pilots a year. Upgrade times will be dropping as soon as they start getting past the 4/08 hires, which should be this year. Even if you take into account the guys coming off the Q400.

Opinions are like *********s, everyone's got one, but I'm just not seeing 7-10 year upgrades happening at this point. I don't think we will ever get back to 2 year upgrades, but at current attrition rates, with no growth, we should settle into an average of 4-year upgrade, assuming no increased attrition and assuming 1 in 4 guys leaving is an FO, which is a reasonable assumption IMHO once the rush to places like TSA/PSA finishes.

 

Your 30/month number is an inaccurate. I'm a very senior FO and there the people senior to me that leave every month is about half that number. Last month is was seven.

Seven.

Now, that being said, I think that your 4 year number is not too far off, but I think that it's gonna be closer to five years.

 

Maybe the 30 a month he stated included FOs?

 

It did, it just didn't accurately reflect upgrade opportunities, which is the point that I was trying to make.

 

By the time we maybe get 145's over half of the current Pilot group will be a Mainline. And you guys will be still crying over a new contract and you'll be still crying over how ENVOY, PSA and Piedmont screwed you guys over.
hahahahahaha

Lather Rinse and repeat.......

 

Then maybe you can take concessions for Doug at AA too!

 

Concessions???? Piedmont Pilots took concessions??? I don't/didn't see any concessions.

You folks went to RAH knowing it had the worst contract of any other regional and probably the worst insurance benefit package of all the regionals.

 

Yep. Remember that loa that doubles your insurance rates over 5 years? That is concessionary. I like how you pretend it doesn't exist because it doesnt take effect until the 145s show up. So once again. Doug will love having push overs like you at AA!

 

Insurance rate increases and pay caps are concessions.

 

And a 10 year contract is a very big concession.