The only way flows are going to work for the up-and-coming generation of pilots is to have a defined career path with a defined, realistic time line for the payback. These kids have plenty of other options and most don’t think the pilot career is all that attractive to begin with.

This more informed generation has the advantage of easy access to the internet providing all the information they want to know about a career. They are not going to invest $150k+ and several years for a career that “may pay off” in the future.

With the substantial financial and time commitment it now requires to become an ATP, they want and need to know what the payback will be and when it will be.

For example, a flow MAY work if at the end of 36 months, the pilot is still at the regional, they now have a mainline number and are paid on the mainline pay scale. Without this commitment from the major airlines, they won’t be committing to $150K+ of debt and several years of training.

 

Yea buddy. It's a real hard sell right now to get me into a regional... I'm still debating on it and I'm right at the door step of qualifications...

 

They're doing it all day long though. Maybe not for flight training, but the college bubble is spewing out millions of worthless degrees in nothing with price tage every bit as expensive as learning to fly.

There's nothing about access to that list of free material in the age of instant hyper accessable information that warrants such high costs though. Likewise it doesn't cost 150K to get your ratings, and the time will take care of itself because the system is going to need instructors. Lower cost, higher value programs will emerge (no thanks to these "summits" of course) and getting slightly more than "12 and 2" won't be any bigger deal now than it was not that long ago.

 

Bank loans. If you aren't rich, and you can't get a bank loan,u aren't flight training, no matter how motivated you are. I think AA/UAL/DAL will either have to guarantee loans, or hire student pilots to make it work. If the new regional guys aren't already main line employees before day one, a flow through will work great if they have a mainline seniority number on day one.

And foreign student pilots? First of all, they don't have the right to work in the U.S.. and, even if they did, the mainline carriers would still have to pay for all of their training. Prospective pilots in China and India don't have the money to train themselves.

It makes no sense for the majors to pay for foreign students, when they could instead pay for U.S.students...that is why we won't have thousands of foreign students taking jobs away from prospective U.S.students.

 

So all of those pilots who financed their own flight training out of pocket over time didn't actually get flight training?
No....you can't get flight trained in 3-5 months; and the industry at times tells you that getting trained quickly provides rewards on the back end with a higher seniority system.
It is a choice, and a chance, you take when when you make the decision which path to take towards your career goal.

 

Since the mortgage debacle, it has been MUCH more difficult to get bank loans, including loans for flight training, then it used to be...and the cost of training keeps increasing, without increasing compensation.

 

How many more news stories, conferences, symposiums, gatherings, studies, etc with all these so called experts are there going to be before someone realizes that the fix is simple and that's pay a decent wage. This isn't a complex issue.

 

I thought the federal government looked into it a year ago and came to the conclusion that the shortage is caused by pay.

If you want to fix the shortage, for the long term, get rid of the regional airlines. Their model doesn't work with high compensation, and it's their purpose in life to keep wages low to maximize their competitiveness with their major partners...

So, my suggestion would be for ALPA to negotiate wages for smaller airplanes, and realize that every regional pilot they employee at the major airlines breeds more job security for the major, and stability for the industry.

 

The $150k+ isn't just to get your ratings. It's ratings + the college degree currently required by the majors. If you think it's possible to get a degree and all the required ratings for less than $150k, maybe mentor a student who is trying to do that. I think you will be surprised. I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm saying that on a daily basis I talk to people trying to do it, and that is the consensus.

 

And as stated, the banks capped loans for flight students at $80k because so many pilots defaulted on their loans.

Yes, there are other routes to get there, but they will take longer than the 6 years it already takes to get a degree and ratings. And then remember, you need to get to the 1500 hours. So it is a long, expensive road now matter how you get there.

The payoff has to be there. And right now, it isn't.