They haven't, and don't have the tech today. Single-pilot operations (I'm not predicting pilot-less) require the plane to be able to fly to an alternate and land, without pilot inputs. Current airliners can't do this, maybe some of the newest ones could with some improvements. The next generation certainly will be capable, that's why NASA gives it 15 years, for the next generation of airliner to be in use.

But it isn't the airplanes that are the difficult part, it is the runways. There are not many auto-land runways in the world today, only a few at the biggest airports. They are very expensive to set up and operate, and they would be needed in great numbers and many at remote and difficult alternate airports. The technology that would greatly simplify auto-land systems is coming, will easily be here within 15 years, but it has not been sitting on the shelf.

I've worked in industrial automation for over 30 years, the stuff I'm seeing on factory floors is unbelievable, right out of sci-fi, and it is advancing fast. A vision system that can see the runway surface, airport layout, approach terrain, air and ground traffic, is not far off. They are already offering them for self-driving cars and trucks. Things like that are getting rapidly cheaper and more reliable, multiple systems could be mounted on airliners without much weight or expense.

ATC needs huge upgrades to handle all this, 15 years of technical advances will allow huge upgrades. 15 years is a long time, 20 years is a very long time, especially in technology. But it is way too soon for someone entering this profession today.

 

How many people retired from United beteen 2008 and 2013? I was under the impression that it was around 10-20 per year, which would suggest that if the age is raised again, the vast majority would continue flying like they did before.

 

Even though this "summit" is weak sauce, I think it is an indicator of two things -- (1) flight schools are feeling the pinch and (2) the regional airlines are recognizing that the profits they've been enjoying may not be sustainable with the current business model. I do not believe for a second, however, that they're going to roll over and raise wages overnight to attract pilots. They simply aren't that desperate yet.

In lieu of this so-called 'shortage,' the regionals are still turning a very nice profit. Hmmm. If this were a true labor shortage, regional airlines would absolutely have to offer higher compensation. We still have enough starry-eyed kids lining up with hope of landing the big widebody captain job someday.

Things are going to change, but what that change looks like and how long that change takes to come about, I have no idea. I am fully expecting it to be drawn out...

 

20 years is too soon for most professions I think. Youtube 'Humans Need Not Apply' and Google 'the Technological Singularity'. This will affect most, if not all jobs, not just pilots.

 

Pilot PayShortage

 

So I tried googling this conference and I am not coming up with any results. Are the proceedings and testimony from this conference being with held from public knowledge, or is my google foo on the fritz? (yes I can see articles referencing that the conference was taking place, but not the results)

 

Truth, I'm thinking hard about whether I dare quit my career in automation when I make captain, no shortage of demand for automation. Repetitive jobs and dangerous or super-critical-precision jobs are the ones getting automated first. Third-world countries are the most ripe for automation, they are way behind and labor costs are rising.

The next 15 years will be a boom time for automation and for pilots, then I'll retire, phew. But I do worry about the younger pilots.

 

Two thoughts:
1) The link, in the original post, was to a press release from Embry Riddle. The media contact is listed as [email protected]. You could always send Mr. Roddey an email and ask him if he is willing to divulge the findings of this star-studded "board of inquiry" and ask what measures the airlines are likely to take in order to deal with the "pilot supply" issue, (hint: don't expect any of those measures to include a substantial pay increase,.....because it was pre-determined that pay is not a factor in the "pilot supply" conundrum).
And
2) If you get a response, at all from the ERAU media contact, it's likely to tell you to mind your own business because the findings of this particular Star Chamber are proprietary and double top-secret and that findings are disseminated on a "need to know" basis,........ (and you don't "need to know"!). If this brain trust wanted us to know what they talked about, they would have allowed media personnel to attend the event. You could always threaten to file a request under the "freedom of information act" since the event allegedly include public officials from the Whitehouse and the FAA, but I don't think that would initially scare the powerful media arm of Humpty Diddle Aeronautical University.

 

LMAO. Just illustrates the gross imbalance in favor of the industry. Now that Colgan is distant memory--- it's time for repeal.

 

I'm sure that was bullet point number one, (in underlined BOLD italics) on their list of ways to deal with the "pilot supply" crisis.