Pilot Shortage (2015 Embry Riddle summit)
#221
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 265
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From: Captain - Retired
What do I support? That's a pretty broad question. I like puppies and world peace, although I think soccer is stupid (but so does the rest of America thankfully). 
As for promoting the growth of flight schools, its clear that we lack sufficient infrastructure for training new pilots relative to projected demand. Its not necessarily a matter of more schools, but we do/will need more instructors and students going to flight schools. This isn't even debatable.
While we may collectively gain some amount of pricing power from a "shortage" that will be short lived and is not a strategy towards restoration. If we can't get enough new pilots into the system we will all suffer because our entire industry will lose out. Eventually the pressure to allow cabotage as well as further aiding and abetting foreign enemy airlines hell bent on poaching our entire industry out from under us will only increase if we can't find a way to asuage our pilot shortage at least to a reasonable degree.
As for taking the lower cost comments out of context, I think we have way too much 6 figure Bravo Sierra in all our education systems. Way too many flight schools are gravitating to insane all glass hyper expensive fleets/programs when what we need is experience. Its not going to be "cheap" either way, but the issues we face will only get worse if the only solution we throw at it is a 6 figure flight school model on top of a 6 figure bachleors degree. That's asinine, unsustainable and completely out of scale with reality.

As for promoting the growth of flight schools, its clear that we lack sufficient infrastructure for training new pilots relative to projected demand. Its not necessarily a matter of more schools, but we do/will need more instructors and students going to flight schools. This isn't even debatable.
While we may collectively gain some amount of pricing power from a "shortage" that will be short lived and is not a strategy towards restoration. If we can't get enough new pilots into the system we will all suffer because our entire industry will lose out. Eventually the pressure to allow cabotage as well as further aiding and abetting foreign enemy airlines hell bent on poaching our entire industry out from under us will only increase if we can't find a way to asuage our pilot shortage at least to a reasonable degree.
As for taking the lower cost comments out of context, I think we have way too much 6 figure Bravo Sierra in all our education systems. Way too many flight schools are gravitating to insane all glass hyper expensive fleets/programs when what we need is experience. Its not going to be "cheap" either way, but the issues we face will only get worse if the only solution we throw at it is a 6 figure flight school model on top of a 6 figure bachleors degree. That's asinine, unsustainable and completely out of scale with reality.
Some of the finer points of what you said...
The regional path is and always will be a great way to gain time and experience, but there are other great ways too. FWIW I am LOVING watching the dirt bag bottom feeder regionals scramble for pilots and raising compensation. I want thier costs to go up and go up a lot. That takes real pressure off of the bottom end of mainline scope issues, which we also need to address and improve.
Your thinly veiled point is still completely ridiculous though. You think that because there are 76 seat RJ's flying around that ergo soon legacy pilot groups will sign away widebody international FO positions to out of seniority MPL pilots. That is not going to happen. Ever.
Trends can be a useful tool, but its important not to take them out of context. Do you white knuckle your armrests and start screaming "AIRSPEED! STALL! AIRSPEED!" every time the other pilot slows 10 kts? That's the trend, after all. 

#222
Pilot shortage affecting TSA:
Quote (Originally by v1valarob)---
Not a new guy to management tactics. My 4th rodeo, but K2 came in to new hire class and said that negotiation open later this year, but that upper management want the contract done by fall.*
I dont believe him, but its the rumor they want spread.
---End Quote---
I don't make it a habit to trust management.* That being said, if you look at this from the outside looking in, a labor dispute in the middle of trying to hire 600 pilots will not be good for business.* They know they are competing against PSA, Mesa, and Envoy with shiny new airplanes and/or flow-throughs.* They saw what bad labor relations are/were doing to places like Envoy and Expressjet.* More people leaving than coming on board.* When you're trying to triple the size of your airline, quick and dirty is the best way.
Quote (Originally by v1valarob)---
Not a new guy to management tactics. My 4th rodeo, but K2 came in to new hire class and said that negotiation open later this year, but that upper management want the contract done by fall.*
I dont believe him, but its the rumor they want spread.
---End Quote---
I don't make it a habit to trust management.* That being said, if you look at this from the outside looking in, a labor dispute in the middle of trying to hire 600 pilots will not be good for business.* They know they are competing against PSA, Mesa, and Envoy with shiny new airplanes and/or flow-throughs.* They saw what bad labor relations are/were doing to places like Envoy and Expressjet.* More people leaving than coming on board.* When you're trying to triple the size of your airline, quick and dirty is the best way.
#223
#224
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 514
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From: Left seat of a Jet
If there were a shortage of accountants then companies that require the services of accountants would pay more and/or do something to make the career appear more attractive.
Regional carriers caused the problem of poor wages, work rules, and have lowered the career expectations and long term earning potential of pilots, therefore, screw the regional managements. They cry about no pilots, so what....
It is supply and demand, and as we are reminded on occasion, the best piece of safety equipment an airline or an airliner can have is a well trained and experienced pilot.
My main concern long term is that majors won't have access to well trained and experienced pilots. What we don't want to see is major airline pilots learning the business with somewhere around 2000 hours and 1500 of that in GA aircraft.
Regional carriers caused the problem of poor wages, work rules, and have lowered the career expectations and long term earning potential of pilots, therefore, screw the regional managements. They cry about no pilots, so what....
It is supply and demand, and as we are reminded on occasion, the best piece of safety equipment an airline or an airliner can have is a well trained and experienced pilot.
My main concern long term is that majors won't have access to well trained and experienced pilots. What we don't want to see is major airline pilots learning the business with somewhere around 2000 hours and 1500 of that in GA aircraft.
So what! if the stakeholders want well trained and professional pilots let them pay for it. Not the taxpayers!
#225
When an accountant makes an adding mistake, a 100 people aren't killed or maimed. How much subsidy does the military industrial complex get? The pharma, then energy? I am not saying the government should subsidize any of these, what I saying is pretending the the airline industry is or should be turned over to the "free market" is ludicrous. Having an industry that is heavily regulated in terms of safety and access, yet totally unregulated in terms of pay and conditions does not work. That is one reason they have the RLA, to attempt to balance this dichotomy, but it hasn't worked either. The public safety is more important than the bottom line--that's the bottom line.
#226
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 514
Likes: 0
From: Left seat of a Jet
When an accountant makes an adding mistake, a 100 people aren't killed or maimed. How much subsidy does the military industrial complex get? The pharma, then energy? I am not saying the government should subsidize any of these, what I saying is pretending the the airline industry is or should be turned over to the "free market" is ludicrous. Having an industry that is heavily regulated in terms of safety and access, yet totally unregulated in terms of pay and conditions does not work. That is one reason they have the RLA, to attempt to balance this dichotomy, but it hasn't worked either. The public safety is more important than the bottom line--that's the bottom line.
Free markets will cure all ills of this industry one way or another; we are really close to regulating and taxing this industry offshore or out of existence altogether. I have no problem allowing this industry to be re-regulated and looking like the early to mid 1970's.
#227
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 265
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From: Captain - Retired
I've always preached that seniority is the root of the pay issues with pilots. Pilots going through many jobs in their career and resetting their seniority each time.
Totally getting rid of seniority would create an interim period of chaos so that can't be done.
On the other hand I don't believe a national seniority system is the answer either because that would be logistically impossible.
The solution lies somewhere in the middle in that seniority rules should be flexible and relaxed based on circumstance. For example, it makes no sense for jet pilots to go back and forth between captain and co pilot from job to job...it's inefficient for safety and training costs.
It's also inefficient to allow pilots to jump back and forth between jets and bases all the time.
But a pilot who sticks around and is loyal to a company and a particular equipment should be rewarded with seniority.
That's how most businesses and careers work. There's no reason you can't have strong union contracts with relaxed seniority systems in place. In fact it would give the unions far better bargaining power and give the airlines far more hiring options.
It's free market and union negotiating side by side, under control benefiting everyone.
Totally getting rid of seniority would create an interim period of chaos so that can't be done.
On the other hand I don't believe a national seniority system is the answer either because that would be logistically impossible.
The solution lies somewhere in the middle in that seniority rules should be flexible and relaxed based on circumstance. For example, it makes no sense for jet pilots to go back and forth between captain and co pilot from job to job...it's inefficient for safety and training costs.
It's also inefficient to allow pilots to jump back and forth between jets and bases all the time.
But a pilot who sticks around and is loyal to a company and a particular equipment should be rewarded with seniority.
That's how most businesses and careers work. There's no reason you can't have strong union contracts with relaxed seniority systems in place. In fact it would give the unions far better bargaining power and give the airlines far more hiring options.
It's free market and union negotiating side by side, under control benefiting everyone.
#228
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 12,833
Likes: 172
From: window seat
I absolutely do NOT want government subsidies for flight schools. "Education" (if you can call it that in so many cases) is past the breaking point of sanity and sustainability as it is because of government subsidies. Uncle Sugar throwing more entitlement/fake stimulus money at the problem is the LAST thing we need.
I'm talking about large airlines, who have a vested interest in at least having a supply of pilots, investing in experience based flight schools. You apparently don't understand that they are going to invest in flight training one way or the other. Right now they are hell bent on idiotic euro style "ab initio" all glass 6 figure "chosen one" flight schools, when what we need is experience. Experience that can (and should) be done in cheaper round dial GA trainers. Instead these MBA idiots are focused only on reducing the minimums and increasing the cost of training with their all glass insanity and a bunch of extremely expensive sims. If anyone is carrying the airline lobby's water its you.
You just don't want to admit it because you mistakenly want to believe that high costs to entry will usher in an era of pre-deregulation Cadillac a month prosperity. It won't. It will exacerbate the current crisis and dramatically increase the likelihood that we will see more subsidies for flight schools, lower ATP mins and/or an MPL system, none of which will translate into higher pilot pay in the long run. The next step beyond that if, of course, cabotage. If we don't achieve a training infrastructure to meet demand, we will be at the mercy of anyone else that does and it won't be pretty.
I'd like to see another, much stronger, General Aviation Revitalization Act passed, which would help fuel GA in general and flight training in particular not with subsidies, but with tort reform at the manufacturing and instructing levels. I want to see much stronger protections against the scum filth concept of cabotage. And we need to have a winning stratedgy to fight the dual subsidized foreign enemy airlines on all fronts.
It may be comforting to you to sit back, do nothing and think that the insane cost creep for education in general and pilot training in particular will automatically make it rain money for pilots and that's all we have to do for great success. That will not work.
You can disagree all you want, but please cease and desist with your baseless accusations that I'm pro-RAA. That organization is full of no talent hack scum bags and I'm loving the self imposed crisis they are in the midst of. I am against their attempts to lower minimums and get some MPL style ststem in this country. And I want to see a large chunk of their business taken away from them with improved mainline scope clauses, and those that try to go IndyAir II I want to see buried by the competition. You will find fewer people more against the RAA than me anywhere.
By the way its you that want to apparently do away with unions and seniority lists, which is one of the most anti-labor shill points of view in airline history. You will never, and I mean ever, get to slide on over to a legacy mainline one single number above the most junior pilot on property before you were hired. Ever. You want that, go to China. Have fun. You will never get that here.
#229
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 265
Likes: 0
From: Captain - Retired
How is pointing out that this is rediculous smack of "RAA" propaganda? And if I was so pro-RAA as you are lamely attempting to claim, why do I love to see the real time demise of the ACMI regional sector? Why do I want further (significant) scope restrictions on regional airlines? Why do I love to see the costs and pay at regionals go up as much as possile?
I absolutely do NOT want government subsidies for flight schools. "Education" (if you can call it that in so many cases) is past the breaking point of sanity and sustainability as it is because of government subsidies. Uncle Sugar throwing more entitlement/fake stimulus money at the problem is the LAST thing we need.
I'm talking about large airlines, who have a vested interest in at least having a supply of pilots, investing in experience based flight schools. You apparently don't understand that they are going to invest in flight training one way or the other.
And....this is no way benefits the airline piloting profession.
Right now they are hell bent on idiotic euro style "ab initio" all glass 6 figure "chosen one" flight schools, when what we need is experience. Experience that can (and should) be done in cheaper round dial GA trainers. Instead these MBA idiots are focused only on reducing the minimums and increasing the cost of training with their all glass insanity and a bunch of extremely expensive sims. If anyone is carrying the airline lobby's water its you.
As airline pilots, we shouldn't be concerned about helping the regionals find more cheap labor which seems to be all you talk about.
You just don't want to admit it because you mistakenly want to believe that high costs to entry will usher in an era of pre-deregulation Cadillac a month prosperity. It won't. It will exacerbate the current crisis and dramatically increase the likelihood that we will see more subsidies for flight schools, lower ATP mins and/or an MPL system, none of which will translate into higher pilot pay in the long run. The next step beyond that if, of course, cabotage. If we don't achieve a training infrastructure to meet demand, we will be at the mercy of anyone else that does and it won't be pretty.
I'd like to see another, much stronger, General Aviation Revitalization Act passed, which would help fuel GA in general and flight training in particular not with subsidies, but with tort reform at the manufacturing and instructing levels. I want to see much stronger protections against the scum filth concept of cabotage. And we need to have a winning stratedgy to fight the dual subsidized foreign enemy airlines on all fronts.
It may be comforting to you to sit back, do nothing and think that the insane cost creep for education in general and pilot training in particular will automatically make it rain money for pilots and that's all we have to do for great success. That will not work.
You can disagree all you want, but please cease and desist with your baseless accusations that I'm pro-RAA. That organization is full of no talent hack scum bags and I'm loving the self imposed crisis they are in the midst of. I am against their attempts to lower minimums and get some MPL style ststem in this country. And I want to see a large chunk of their business taken away from them with improved mainline scope clauses, and those that try to go IndyAir II I want to see buried by the competition. You will find fewer people more against the RAA than me anywhere.
By the way its you that want to apparently do away with unions and seniority lists, which is one of the most anti-labor shill points of view in airline history. You will never, and I mean ever, get to slide on over to a legacy mainline one single number above the most junior pilot on property before you were hired. Ever. You want that, go to China. Have fun. You will never get that here.
A true advocate of regional airlines would fully embrace the seniority system knowing that it has made the business model possible. So defending the seniority system simply reinforces my belief that your agenda is pro RAA and pro large flight schools.
I have no need to advance over anyone's seniority. My agenda is more of a crusade to educate pilots and open their eyes rather than a personal need, but you already know that.
#230
I'm talking about large airlines, who have a vested interest in at least having a supply of pilots, investing in experience based flight schools. You apparently don't understand that they are going to invest in flight training one way or the other.
Is there anything to prevent the majors/legacies from taking a page out of Asia's book and doing this?
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