Thank you! I keep saying that it is possible to have union contracts and union bargaining and all that without seniority lists.

The problem is that the unions seem hell bent on seniority and management loves it because their top pilots can't quit even when pay cuts are forced down their throats.

Pilots need to wake up and realize they are selling a service that the highest bidder will compete and pay for but only if they have to. Nobody loves union contracts and seniority lists more than management.

If you believe the seniority list protects you it's because you've been brainwashed.

 

There currently is a family doctor shortage, and to make up for it clinics are hiring Physician Assistants that are paid far less. It takes 8 years for a doctor and 2 for a PA, yet when a person goes to the clinic they pay the same to see either one.

 

Since December 2012 when the five year extension was up, is when the Pilot Shortage began. But that doesn't mean all of a sudden every airline will be calling immediately because of it. This shortage will be over a span of 7-10 years before the majors feel it but the regionals and other operators are already experiencing the beginning of it. Just at the majors(3) in 2015 they will be hiring close to 3500 pilots and if sustained over 5 years that's 17,500 pilots needed at the big three. How many regional pilots are out there? They will hire from other corporate and 135 operators as well thus a shuffle between the different type of flying jobs, which creates more opportunity for all. So I believe there will be a shortage at the majors but it will and is happening now at the regional level. In 3 years I doubt many regionals will survive unless their absorbed by the major.

If anything, there will be continuous hiring at the majors for the next 3 decades. Not a bad outlook from what we're used to.

 

Amen brother!

 

[mod note]

Nice discussion, but please avoid making "ad hominem" attacks. Some posts were removed.

 

The shortage is apparently clearly affecting UAL hiring in this class with 80% civilian hires. So much for "all military"

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ua...ml#post1819453

 

Delta own Pinnacle and they are putting money into it to keep the regional train going. Regional pay WILL go up to avoid any shortage at the majors. I think you'll see some partnerships with community colleges to get credit, just like MESA had. I think you will see more flows or "pathways" to a major career; but there will be catches in all those agreements. There is no way majors are going to give up the flexibility of outsourcing at a feeder, they'll pay more to keep it.

 

MPL pilots are in cockpits replacing airline pilots already under ICAO. They are quicker and cheaper to train, they are trained and certified for only one airline, locked into that airline so they can't move to a higher paying airline which would force airlines to pay what they are worth. Their training and experience don't count toward becoming an airline pilot, so they will forever be cheap seat fillers paid whatever airlines feel like paying. Airline management dream fulfilled. A stroke of a pen and they will be training for U.S. airlines, but that will only happen if we have a "crisis", right? And they'll only be used on long-haul, 3 & 4 pilot flights, right? Stroke of a pen and everything changes.

And when that happens, another pilot glut and FO stagnation.

 

While I don't want to totally discount that as a potential stratedgy by the MBA crowd, I don't ever see major contracts being modified to allow something like that. There may be some new hires going to ER's and occasionally larger right now, but not nearly enough to fill the "shortage" by hoping those categories stay junior, even if the regs change.

 

Sorry but that part made me chuckle.