Envoy to get 100% flow to AA.
06-17-2015, 01:53 PM
#41
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Originally Posted by RyanP
How many other regionals have as many pilots per month going to a "LEGACY" carrier as Eagle does (with our Flow + limited outside Legacy attrition)??
Answer = 0
We are putting more pilots at Legacy carriers than anyone else right now. Vast majority being AA.
You can't argue with that. It's a fact.
Answer = 0
We are putting more pilots at Legacy carriers than anyone else right now. Vast majority being AA.
You can't argue with that. It's a fact.
So far, those components don't exist and THAT is FACT. Like your fellow sales associate said, "the world changes" and thus what happens "right now" may not be able to happen in the future. 6 years is a LIFETIME in this business in regards to changing worlds and equating what is happening at Envoy right now to the remainder of the arbitrational awarded "824" pilots is NO GUARANTEE of ANYTHING for those subject to a simple contractual agreement like the Protected Pilots Agreement (PPA) months or years down the road. Mix that in conjunction that Envoy will be morphing drastically into a different feed provider due to significant contraction and you can't even guarantee Envoy will exist in 6 years in present form, let alone smoothly flowing a new-hire of today.
06-17-2015, 01:53 PM
#42
Pilot
Joined APC: May 2015
Posts: 149
Originally Posted by eaglefly
30/month ?
It's FAR less then that. The FACTS are that regardless of the present sales letters and song-and-dance routines of a handful of snake-oil hucksters here, Envoy WILL shrink. Wilsons own numbers demonstrate that in the very letter that included his projections. AAG has made ZERO additional long-term commitments to Envoy's fleet renewal since the 40 E-175's and Envoy is bringing in a fraction of the pilots needed to support a steady, long-term flow that will benefit any pilot hired today or later.
The foundations of all these projections and claims simply isn't there and until they are, it's all smoke and mirrors by a handful who themselves are the ones with ulterior motives and hidden agendas.
It's FAR less then that. The FACTS are that regardless of the present sales letters and song-and-dance routines of a handful of snake-oil hucksters here, Envoy WILL shrink. Wilsons own numbers demonstrate that in the very letter that included his projections. AAG has made ZERO additional long-term commitments to Envoy's fleet renewal since the 40 E-175's and Envoy is bringing in a fraction of the pilots needed to support a steady, long-term flow that will benefit any pilot hired today or later.
The foundations of all these projections and claims simply isn't there and until they are, it's all smoke and mirrors by a handful who themselves are the ones with ulterior motives and hidden agendas.
06-17-2015, 02:03 PM
#43
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,137
Originally Posted by LeadFoot
That's another thing that I'm trying to understand. The non-wholly owned airlines combined do more flying for American Airlines than PSA, Piedmont, and Envoy. With the projections of retirements through 2025, AAG would not just have to hire from the three WO's. Am I right in saying that they may have to hire from elsewhere as well? And not everyone from the regionals wants to go to AAG; in fact many would go to United, Delta, UPS, FedEx, JB, etc...
You're the CEO of an airline in need of pilots over the next decade. Which regional airlines are you going to attempt to drain of their pilots? Yours or someone elses?
06-17-2015, 02:10 PM
#44
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Originally Posted by LeadFoot
That's another thing that I'm trying to understand. The non-wholly owned airlines combined do more flying for American Airlines than PSA, Piedmont, and Envoy. With the projections of retirements through 2025, AAG would not just have to hire from the three WO's. Am I right in saying that they may have to hire from elsewhere as well? And not everyone from the regionals wants to go to AAG; in fact many would go to United, Delta, UPS, FedEx, JB, etc...
Another aspect to consider is what those who are NOT AA wholly-owned regionals do and that's cover market share for AA that the wholly-owneds cannot. If they disappear, who flies that feed ? Someone has to and the fact is, that the WO's don't now and won't in the future have those pilots. I think it's obvious all that is occurring now is the next phase of the contraction of the regionals and that's "consolidation". First, they will continue to kick the can by trying to do more with less and shuffling their critical commodity (pilots) around a bit. Once that tack is exhausted, the next phase means carrier consolidation, but ultimately the regional industry will shrink to perhaps half its former size, but with a majority of 64-76 aircraft. If and when that becomes threatened, then actual consolidation within the mainline carrier itself is likely the final solution with the entry level position a Group 1 type job at the mainline flying the smaller jets.
Ultimately, most present regional pilots will find themselves at a particular legacy through various phases of consolidation and then acquisition. Running after the first carrot in the process in the long-run like the Envoy/Piedmont flows is a pre-mature knee-jerk reaction at this juncture. I think as the next 18 months goes on, a better picture will emerge and chasing quick upgrades or projected flows now is unadvisable, but hey........that's simply my opinion.
06-17-2015, 02:15 PM
#45
Pilot
Joined APC: May 2015
Posts: 149
Originally Posted by FirstClass
My advice to you is to listen to eaglefly's very rational advice. To me, the puzzle is so simple, they are not going to destroy their own feed by draining their own wholly owned airlines of all their pilots. The flow works in AA's best interest right now because they need to shrink Envoy to 45 airplanes (today's number which can change). Once they are shrunk to whatever size they deem appropriate, thats the end of the flow.
You're the CEO of an airline in need of pilots over the next decade. Which regional airlines are you going to attempt to drain of their pilots? Yours or someone elses?
You're the CEO of an airline in need of pilots over the next decade. Which regional airlines are you going to attempt to drain of their pilots? Yours or someone elses?
There will be thousands of retirements out there in the next few years and Envoy will not be the only one supplying American or others with the necessary pilots.
06-17-2015, 02:16 PM
#46
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 439
Originally Posted by Skyvector
Have you applied to United and Delta? How has that worked out for you so far? You claim Jr CAs are moving to better places....where? Spirit? JetBlue? That may be better than the Regionals...but it's not mainline. And even then, it's difficult to get on with those airlines.
There are 10,000+ pilots applying to the 3 majors left in the United States. Many of those 10,000+ are already working for an LCC, have more PIC time than most Regional pilots have Total Time...and an Airbus type rating to boot.
You think that you and every other wide eyed Regional pilot will some how magically skip ahead of all of them? How? Because you "really, really want the job!"?
We can be cynical about the flow until we turn blue in the face. And that is fine. Flow was never a tool of any kind in the past. The old AA back in the 90s and early 2000s didn't care about flow nor did they want it. They used it as a way to protect their pilots from furlough (letter 3) and it was never intended to actually flow any significant amount of pilots from Eagle.
That was then. This is now. To quote the infamous Scott Kirby: The world has changed. AA still prefers military pilots but they don't have an aversion to Regional pilots the way they did back in the 90s. The new AA (ex-US Airways) understands what a flow can mean for them going forward. And they have gone "all in" so to speak with Envoy and to a lesser extend Piedmont. Only because Piedmont is smaller.
You guys who keep dismissing the flow based on how it worked or didn't work 20 years ago are committing a huge fallacy. The worse thing a professional can do in any industry is be stuck in the past and not adapt to the changing environment around them.
Case and point: Still thinking that the majors will come barrel rolling through your bedroom wall when you hit the magical "1,000 hours of PIC time!".... it doesn't work that way. It never has and even less so today. Living with that in your head will only mean you are at the back of the line as your peers flow up to mainline with no interview.
Take it or leave it. People can listen to trolls like eaglefly who have ulterior motives or they can be smart about what Regional they choose to fly for. Choosing any Regional because of quickie upgrade times is a very bad move. Going to work for Mesa or Republic is a very bad move.
There are 10,000+ pilots applying to the 3 majors left in the United States. Many of those 10,000+ are already working for an LCC, have more PIC time than most Regional pilots have Total Time...and an Airbus type rating to boot.
You think that you and every other wide eyed Regional pilot will some how magically skip ahead of all of them? How? Because you "really, really want the job!"?
We can be cynical about the flow until we turn blue in the face. And that is fine. Flow was never a tool of any kind in the past. The old AA back in the 90s and early 2000s didn't care about flow nor did they want it. They used it as a way to protect their pilots from furlough (letter 3) and it was never intended to actually flow any significant amount of pilots from Eagle.
That was then. This is now. To quote the infamous Scott Kirby: The world has changed. AA still prefers military pilots but they don't have an aversion to Regional pilots the way they did back in the 90s. The new AA (ex-US Airways) understands what a flow can mean for them going forward. And they have gone "all in" so to speak with Envoy and to a lesser extend Piedmont. Only because Piedmont is smaller.
You guys who keep dismissing the flow based on how it worked or didn't work 20 years ago are committing a huge fallacy. The worse thing a professional can do in any industry is be stuck in the past and not adapt to the changing environment around them.
Case and point: Still thinking that the majors will come barrel rolling through your bedroom wall when you hit the magical "1,000 hours of PIC time!".... it doesn't work that way. It never has and even less so today. Living with that in your head will only mean you are at the back of the line as your peers flow up to mainline with no interview.
Take it or leave it. People can listen to trolls like eaglefly who have ulterior motives or they can be smart about what Regional they choose to fly for. Choosing any Regional because of quickie upgrade times is a very bad move. Going to work for Mesa or Republic is a very bad move.
This is spot on. My personal opinion is that you're going to see envoy become the place to be in the very near future. Is it a perfect place now? No, far from it. After all, it's still a regional that is going through pains associated with the closing of bases, lost airplanes, and temporary stagnation. But if your goal is to fly for one of the big 3, then this is the best option with the best odds. As much as it pains some people on here to see, AAG has a huge investment in the future of envoy.
There are the obvious trolls who spew false numbers, absolute worse case scenarios, and outright lies because the failure of envoy is best for whatever position they may be in. Sad but true and it becomes a potential applicants' responsibility to sift through the BS when browsing this site for info.
06-17-2015, 02:20 PM
#47
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 439
Originally Posted by FirstClass
The flow works in AA's best interest right now because they need to shrink Envoy to 45 airplanes (today's number which can change). Once they are shrunk to whatever size they deem appropriate, thats the end of the flow.
You're the CEO of an airline in need of pilots over the next decade. Which regional airlines are you going to attempt to drain of their pilots? Yours or someone elses?
You're the CEO of an airline in need of pilots over the next decade. Which regional airlines are you going to attempt to drain of their pilots? Yours or someone elses?
"That's the end of the flow." What are you a 25 year old lawyer now? You clearly have no clue or have no problem spewing lies about our flow thru agreements or our flow through arbitrated awards.
06-17-2015, 02:26 PM
#48
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Originally Posted by FirstClass
My advice to you is to listen to eaglefly's very rational advice. To me, the puzzle is so simple, they are not going to destroy their own feed by draining their own wholly owned airlines of all their pilots. The flow works in AA's best interest right now because they need to shrink Envoy to 45 airplanes (today's number which can change). Once they are shrunk to whatever size they deem appropriate, thats the end of the flow.
You're the CEO of an airline in need of pilots over the next decade. Which regional airlines are you going to attempt to drain of their pilots? Yours or someone elses?
You're the CEO of an airline in need of pilots over the next decade. Which regional airlines are you going to attempt to drain of their pilots? Yours or someone elses?
If I were an entry-level prospective pilot, I'd make my choice of a regional as one based more on tangible factors then hypothetical ones and if I were already at a given regional (at least one that flies RJ's for a legacy), I'd stay put and let the industry evolve more to get a better handle of what is a good next move, if any.
06-17-2015, 02:30 PM
#49
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Originally Posted by sublime259
This is spot on. My personal opinion is that you're going to see envoy become the place to be in the very near future. Is it a perfect place now? No, far from it. After all, it's still a regional that is going through pains associated with the closing of bases, lost airplanes, and temporary stagnation. But if your goal is to fly for one of the big 3, then this is the best option with the best odds. As much as it pains some people on here to see, AAG has a huge investment in the future of envoy.
There are the obvious trolls who spew false numbers, absolute worse case scenarios, and outright lies because the failure of envoy is best for whatever position they may be in. Sad but true and it becomes a potential applicants' responsibility to sift through the BS when browsing this site for info.
There are the obvious trolls who spew false numbers, absolute worse case scenarios, and outright lies because the failure of envoy is best for whatever position they may be in. Sad but true and it becomes a potential applicants' responsibility to sift through the BS when browsing this site for info.
Once more unto the breach, dear friends...........
06-17-2015, 02:32 PM
#50
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Originally Posted by sublime259
Lies. Complete lies. I'm not sure where you came up with this 45 number? We have 40 orders for 175's, 90 options for 175's, and I believe 68 145's which are staying here.
"That's the end of the flow." What are you a 25 year old lawyer now? You clearly have no clue or have no problem spewing lies about our flow thru agreements or our flow through arbitrated awards.
"That's the end of the flow." What are you a 25 year old lawyer now? You clearly have no clue or have no problem spewing lies about our flow thru agreements or our flow through arbitrated awards.
I'm sorry.
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