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Old 12-06-2016 | 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
SKW doesn't have to go out and start its own operation, because they have so much market share tied up in multiple partnerships. SKW has not got where they are by making stupid decisions, and they are not going to start now. It is obvious that SKW is a huge thorn in your side, and you cannot stand it. You hate the fact that your DL has so much invested in the partnership. You don't think that SKW management back in the day didn't see the writing on the wall that having all your eggs in one basket was not a smart business model? When DL pitched a fit over SKW code sharing with UAL, who ended up winning that little tiff? Sorry dude, but you will need to face the music that SKW has a LOT of pull with your company, as well as others. You know damn well the whole scope clause thing will morph and change in the years to come, because it always does. Anyone who thinks otherwise is either blissfully ignorant, or not educating themselves.

Good luck!
I don't mind the SKYW partnership at all. They are a good regional jet provider for sure. As long as they can keep their perf numbers up and stay within the hard limits of the DL and UAL agreements (to include pilot scope), great!

BTW DL didn't have a problem with SKYW flying for UAL as long as they could hold up their end of the PWA compliant CPA's. Up until now SKYW has run a good operation and have been able to do so. I'll give them credit for that all day long and have no issue with them as long as they stay within the constraints of what we permit them to do, which they will.

You sound more like a SKYW manager than a pilot, but either way that's cool. DL has dealt with managers with loftier ambitions than yours in the past (CMR, ACA, etc) and will do so again when necessary. Sorry to inform you that you will not be getting larger RJ's though. It simply will not be permitted. You will have to remain within the limits set by your existing CPA's and unionized pilot PWA's.

The size, weight and seat count is simply not going up for you. Sorry. The only thing that may happen is some kind of trade for more 76's in exchange for fewer 50's or 70's on a net seat/BH loss basis. We'll see what the next round of mainline PWA's does WRT that, but even that small carrot isn't looking good. But even if you do get that, you'll have to shrink to get it.
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Old 12-06-2016 | 10:10 AM
  #132  
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
As far as management, pilot, janitor, lav dumper goes, lets just say I have no horse in the SKW and DL race. None of it impacts me either way. Both could vanish and it doesn't change my situation at all....

Yes, DL did have a problem with the UAL code share deal so you are dead wrong about that. That caused a massive shift on how the business model changed between majors and regionals. There is a reason those regionals like Comair and ACA no longer exist, and SKW is in the position it is. There is another reason why regionals that once puddled around in 19 seat Metro's are flying 76 seat jets in these partnerships, and that is because it is a give and take between pilot groups and management. I don't need to remind you how this happened, or how it will continue to happen in the future, because no matter what you say...you know. You guys folded like a shirt when it came to bigger equipment than the 50 seat RJs, and you will fold again. Mark my words, it will happen.
If it was going to happen it would have happened in this round of negotiations. This was when it was critical to launch the new airframes. Embraer has already acknowledged that nothing is going to change and put of the new version of the E175.
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Old 12-06-2016 | 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
As far as management, pilot, janitor, lav dumper goes, lets just say I have no horse in the SKW and DL race. None of it impacts me either way. Both could vanish and it doesn't change my situation at all....

Yes, DL did have a problem with the UAL code share deal so you are dead wrong about that. That caused a massive shift on how the business model changed between majors and regionals. There is a reason those regionals like Comair and ACA no longer exist, and SKW is in the position it is. There is another reason why regionals that once puddled around in 19 seat Metro's are flying 76 seat jets in these partnerships, and that is because it is a give and take between pilot groups and management. I don't need to remind you how this happened, or how it will continue to happen in the future, because no matter what you say...you know. You guys folded like a shirt when it came to bigger equipment than the 50 seat RJs, and you will fold again. Mark my words, it will happen.


Mark my words: you will never get your scope jets. Sorry bro. I know you think all trends continue forever. If that were true, then SKYW will become the new airline world order and fly every plane for every airline in existence. All trends continue, right? Every time you takeoff, you are accelerating at a rapid rate and will go super sonic in a matter of minutes! Oh wait, there's reality. The same reality that will prevent SKYW from becoming what you want it to become.

So you're either a very senior/lifer pilot or a manager at SKYW. That's cool. I assure you your counterparts at CMR, ACA and other places had ambitions every bit as lofty as yours. So far we are several contracts deep into the "hold the line" mentality on your upper end. IMO the only relief you'll see is if you shrink to fly fewer RJ's already in your allowed range at the expense of more on the lower end. IOW you will have to shrink to get even that.

SKYW was hardly a revolutionary with their UAL deal. Other regionals operated for more than one partner. I know you think JA is the dominant genius of the industry; many thought the same about CMR and ACA managers as well. But I agree that he is smart. Smart enough to know that his ambitions stop here, and he's better off taking his guaranteed profits and staying in his place.
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Old 12-06-2016 | 11:32 AM
  #134  
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
If the majors want the regionals flying these aircraft because passengers demand it, then you can be assured somehow someway they will make it happen.
Not going to happen. I hope you didn't get a bunch of stock options based on that.
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Old 12-06-2016 | 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
You just keep telling yourself that.
And you keep pretending SKYW is the little engine that could, always growing, always flying bigger planes, to infinity and beyond!
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Old 12-06-2016 | 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
There is no need to pretend, and hardly little engine that could. Man, that thorn is deeep in your side. I love it.
Why would SKYW being forever limited to current seat and weight limits to fly DL and UAL code as determined by the pilot groups who own their codes bother me? You are limited, unless we chose to permit you otherwise. Spoiler alert: we will not permit you otherwise. The koolaid must be hella strong in SGU.
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Old 12-06-2016 | 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
I do not agree, as the industry is in a upswing and doing just fine. But once the peak has been hit, and things decline (as they always do) that is when you see those types of change. Mitsubishi, Bombardier and Embraer jumped the gun way too soon with these types of designs, and now they will be responsible to figure out a way to make it work. If the majors want the regionals flying these aircraft because passengers demand it, then you can be assured somehow someway they will make it happen.
Yet they didn't find that way.
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Old 12-06-2016 | 01:34 PM
  #138  
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
LOL, like I told you before SKW could go away completely and would not impact me one bit. If that isn't hint enough for you, you can continue doing what ever speculating you want. For all you know, I could work for Delta. You ever considered that?
No.

You're clearly a SKYW fanboy, which, in and of itself, I have no problem with. Like I said, they are a quality regional operator and run a fairly good show. I give them credit for that. Every place has lifers, and the "lost decade" has put more in that position than otherwise would have happened. So I get that.

But the fact remains that they will not be permitted to operate larger equipment outside of a massive scope sale or an IndyAir style, all in gamble. The scope sale isn't going to happen. Your ride to the stars stops with the 76 seaters at current weights. Its possible to get more, but only as a result of horse trading for a greater reduction at the lower end, or perhaps a new deal with AS/VX or even picking up some flying currently done by other regionals.

You will not be getting larger equipment from DL. That ship has sailed. If you find another way, it puts your entire DCI partnership at risk, which is why your friend JA won't do it. SKYW grew a lot because they got their pilots to "deal them an ace" when they needed it the most. But don't expect any cards under the table from DALPA. You won't be getting any.
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Old 12-06-2016 | 01:43 PM
  #139  
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
I won't be getting any? There is nothing DALPA can give or grant me, no horse in the race fella. I am going to screenshot these conversations so later on, when things don't go the way you say they will, I can let you enjoy them again!!!
OK I'll play along. You're just an unvested, free thinking neutral observer who happens to think SKYW will take over the world and end up flying mainline sized planes on behalf of mainline airlines.

That still doesn't explain why you want it to happen so badly.

So, in your unvested, neutral observer fashion, how big of a plane do you think SKYW will fly for DL/UA in 5, 10, 20 years?

This should be interesting.
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Old 12-06-2016 | 01:55 PM
  #140  
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
Could be that I want it to happen so badly, or the fact it bends you into a tight knot even thinking about such a thing? SKW could go back and fly Metros for all I care. Have no idea how big of planes regionals will be flying in that time period, and don't care. You ever stepped back and looked as to why you are the only one really responding to what I am saying?
Everyone else has too much butter on their hands from the popcorn.
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