The MRJ90 and E175-E2 are done
12-07-2016, 08:29 AM
#151
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
Look back at past history. Same thing was said about the 50 and 70 seat aircraft. And, we see what happened with that. This is business 101, and contract agreements 101. Everything has a price, trust me.
12-07-2016, 08:42 AM
#152
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
Sure as of right now there is no reason, but you are in an industry where over night things can change. Delta was under BK protection not that long ago. It doesn't take much for the entire industry to take a nose dive, and things go into scramble mode. If anyone thinks this trend is going to last forever, they are nuts. Throw a pilot group into some sort of uncertainty, its amazing how all of the sudden past attitudes go out the window if they think they need to save their bacon.
Spoiler alert: it will not. Its been one heck of a ride for them, and they will maintain a place among low bidder ACMI lift providers in the 76 and under market. But that elevator has reached its top floor. Major pilot groups own their code and will not choose to sell more to facilitate what you want/predict to be SKYW's manifest destiny.
Since you have nothing vested in any of this supposedly, then that shouldn't bother you at all.
12-07-2016, 08:45 AM
#153
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Originally Posted by msprj2
Guess you don't live in NYC
Don't expect scope relief to come from NYC pilots trying to get a raise so they can afford to live there. Most commute and always will, and most of the locals know better than that anyway.
12-07-2016, 08:46 AM
#154
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
Look back at past history. Same thing was said about the 50 and 70 seat aircraft. And, we see what happened with that. This is business 101, and contract agreements 101. Everything has a price, trust me.
12-07-2016, 09:14 AM
#155
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Just so we are clear, what ARE you saying about scope?
Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
Never said such a thing about 100-1,000 seat planes at regionals. That is you spinning that little theory in that head of yours.
One thing is painfully obvious with you. You are trying like to hell to convince yourself of scope with all of your banter. Keep telling yourself over and over and it will become true. Inside is a part of you that knows what I am saying holds plenty of water. Keep barking otherwise, copy and paste the same old things over and over and golly it makes it true!
One thing is painfully obvious with you. You are trying like to hell to convince yourself of scope with all of your banter. Keep telling yourself over and over and it will become true. Inside is a part of you that knows what I am saying holds plenty of water. Keep barking otherwise, copy and paste the same old things over and over and golly it makes it true!
12-07-2016, 09:20 AM
#156
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
Never said such a thing about 100-1,000 seat planes at regionals. That is you spinning that little theory in that head of yours.
So that means you think the absolute max for them is somewhere between 77 and 99 seats.
Of course there's that pesky "proof of the pudding" trend vector. remember, metros to RJ9's means always larger, right? But anyway...
Why do you think they will never exceed the 77-99 seat range, yet can't be held to the 50-76 seat range?
You also point to the historical trends, yet ignore the recent trends of multiple successive recent contracts slamming the door on plane size relief, as well as the historical pushing back against 100ish seat bach jets and 84 seat RJ9's trends that were the case in the past at every major airline but no longer are.
So the very trends you tout are, if anything, illustrating the opposite of the ever growing manifest destiny you're predicting.
And the 70s and 76s grew when there was nothing projected at mainlines under 150ish (except tiny fleets of 73-7's and 319's and even they were pushing 130). Now we have large and growing fleets in the 110 seat range, with more orders about to be placed. That will make it even harder to get this past the unionized pilot groups who own their codes. I just don't see them falling for it, in good times or in bad.
12-07-2016, 10:55 AM
#157
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Mike and CCB
If anything now would be the best time for management to make a run at scope erosion. The pendulum has swung in the right direction for the industry. Legacies are making money hand over fist. Compensation is returning to 2000esque levels. They're hiring by the hundreds or thousands, which brings a (maybe false) sense of security to the junior guys. The seniority lists is saturated with very (longevity wise) senior guys at almost every level. We know said senior pilots will be retiring in droves in the coming years, so this would be the time for them to sellout the incoming guys on their last working contract.
Yet it has not happened. Managements one attempt, DAL TA15, failed. If anything the trend on outsourcing has reversed. Pilots are greedy. The rj experiment was voluntarily brought under the tent, but let's not forget it was exponentially amplified through bankruptcies and the associated duress. The majority of the incoming generation of legacy pilots suffered through the lost decade and rj experience. I doubt they'll quickly forget the consequences of selling job security for a few shekels during the next downturn.
If anything now would be the best time for management to make a run at scope erosion. The pendulum has swung in the right direction for the industry. Legacies are making money hand over fist. Compensation is returning to 2000esque levels. They're hiring by the hundreds or thousands, which brings a (maybe false) sense of security to the junior guys. The seniority lists is saturated with very (longevity wise) senior guys at almost every level. We know said senior pilots will be retiring in droves in the coming years, so this would be the time for them to sellout the incoming guys on their last working contract.
Yet it has not happened. Managements one attempt, DAL TA15, failed. If anything the trend on outsourcing has reversed. Pilots are greedy. The rj experiment was voluntarily brought under the tent, but let's not forget it was exponentially amplified through bankruptcies and the associated duress. The majority of the incoming generation of legacy pilots suffered through the lost decade and rj experience. I doubt they'll quickly forget the consequences of selling job security for a few shekels during the next downturn.
12-07-2016, 01:47 PM
#158
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Originally Posted by RJDio
Mike and CCB
If anything now would be the best time for management to make a run at scope erosion. The pendulum has swung in the right direction for the industry. Legacies are making money hand over fist. Compensation is returning to 2000esque levels. They're hiring by the hundreds or thousands, which brings a (maybe false) sense of security to the junior guys. The seniority lists is saturated with very (longevity wise) senior guys at almost every level. We know said senior pilots will be retiring in droves in the coming years, so this would be the time for them to sellout the incoming guys on their last working contract.
Yet it has not happened. Managements one attempt, DAL TA15, failed. If anything the trend on outsourcing has reversed. Pilots are greedy. The rj experiment was voluntarily brought under the tent, but let's not forget it was exponentially amplified through bankruptcies and the associated duress. The majority of the incoming generation of legacy pilots suffered through the lost decade and rj experience. I doubt they'll quickly forget the consequences of selling job security for a few shekels during the next downturn.
If anything now would be the best time for management to make a run at scope erosion. The pendulum has swung in the right direction for the industry. Legacies are making money hand over fist. Compensation is returning to 2000esque levels. They're hiring by the hundreds or thousands, which brings a (maybe false) sense of security to the junior guys. The seniority lists is saturated with very (longevity wise) senior guys at almost every level. We know said senior pilots will be retiring in droves in the coming years, so this would be the time for them to sellout the incoming guys on their last working contract.
Yet it has not happened. Managements one attempt, DAL TA15, failed. If anything the trend on outsourcing has reversed. Pilots are greedy. The rj experiment was voluntarily brought under the tent, but let's not forget it was exponentially amplified through bankruptcies and the associated duress. The majority of the incoming generation of legacy pilots suffered through the lost decade and rj experience. I doubt they'll quickly forget the consequences of selling job security for a few shekels during the next downturn.
If it comes to making a small increase plenty of MECs have thrown the JR guys under the bus, over and over, and will do so again.
Good luck
12-07-2016, 04:31 PM
#159
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Originally Posted by ClickClickBoom
If it comes to making a small increase plenty of MECs have thrown the JR guys under the bus, over and over, and will do so again.
If there was a time to get this done it was last year or maybe this year. Both got rejected incredibly hard at DL. One as part of the only (and resounding) TA rejection ever, and the other a groundswell rebellion that was nipped in the bud before it could even get put to paper in the redo.
Its never looked less likelier going forward than it does now. Yeah yeah I know, they'll offer us one trillion dollars for one additional seat and the trends will continue to infinity and beyond!
12-07-2016, 04:51 PM
#160
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Originally Posted by gloopy
Except we are multiple contracts by multiple airlines past the last time that happened. The DL MEC, which was already very well dug in against larger scope jets, just took an even more hawkish turn as well with recent elections.
If there was a time to get this done it was last year or maybe this year. Both got rejected incredibly hard at DL. One as part of the only (and resounding) TA rejection ever, and the other a groundswell rebellion that was nipped in the bud before it could even get put to paper in the redo.
Its never looked less likelier going forward than it does now. Yeah yeah I know, they'll offer us one trillion dollars for one additional seat and the trends will continue to infinity and beyond!
If there was a time to get this done it was last year or maybe this year. Both got rejected incredibly hard at DL. One as part of the only (and resounding) TA rejection ever, and the other a groundswell rebellion that was nipped in the bud before it could even get put to paper in the redo.
Its never looked less likelier going forward than it does now. Yeah yeah I know, they'll offer us one trillion dollars for one additional seat and the trends will continue to infinity and beyond!
