The MRJ90 and E175-E2 are done
#161
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Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,524
#162
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
There won't be any truck drivers in 10 years, no regional pilots in 15 years, and no mainline pilots in 20 years. I'm being generous too, it's probably much sooner.
#163
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,315
That is certainly great news for regional pilots! Not sure why you're not celebrating it. Seems strange.
#164
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Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,160
The next fully automated career field will be taxis and the like. It will probably take 20-30 years to get rid of all taxi cabs. I think cargo pilots will be the first aviation career to be automated. I don't think that'll happen in the next 25 years. It'll take at least that long to create the infrastructure and regulations to allow for it to happen. As for passenger traffic? I think we will start seeing single pilot technology in major airline cockpits at the end of my career. People are fine if their box goes down in the middle of Nebraska. I am still surprised at how many people still say that they would NEVER own a self-driving car. Until they are comfortable with that, they will never be okay without a pilot. Getting rid of pilot labor doesn't save THAT much.
#165
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
While I don't disagree in your statement, I think your timeline is ambitious. I think the first thing to go will be truck drivers, most likely in the next 15-20 years. It just takes way too long to purchase that kind of technology especially when current technology is already paid for.
The next fully automated career field will be taxis and the like. It will probably take 20-30 years to get rid of all taxi cabs. I think cargo pilots will be the first aviation career to be automated. I don't think that'll happen in the next 25 years. It'll take at least that long to create the infrastructure and regulations to allow for it to happen. As for passenger traffic? I think we will start seeing single pilot technology in major airline cockpits at the end of my career. People are fine if their box goes down in the middle of Nebraska. I am still surprised at how many people still say that they would NEVER own a self-driving car. Until they are comfortable with that, they will never be okay without a pilot. Getting rid of pilot labor doesn't save THAT much.
The next fully automated career field will be taxis and the like. It will probably take 20-30 years to get rid of all taxi cabs. I think cargo pilots will be the first aviation career to be automated. I don't think that'll happen in the next 25 years. It'll take at least that long to create the infrastructure and regulations to allow for it to happen. As for passenger traffic? I think we will start seeing single pilot technology in major airline cockpits at the end of my career. People are fine if their box goes down in the middle of Nebraska. I am still surprised at how many people still say that they would NEVER own a self-driving car. Until they are comfortable with that, they will never be okay without a pilot. Getting rid of pilot labor doesn't save THAT much.
It's not about saving the cost of the pilot, that's nothing, it's about being able to get up to 50% more utilization out of the aircraft, increasing billions in revenue.
#166
While I don't disagree in your statement, I think your timeline is ambitious. I think the first thing to go will be truck drivers, most likely in the next 15-20 years. It just takes way too long to purchase that kind of technology especially when current technology is already paid for.
The next fully automated career field will be taxis and the like. It will probably take 20-30 years to get rid of all taxi cabs. I think cargo pilots will be the first aviation career to be automated. I don't think that'll happen in the next 25 years. It'll take at least that long to create the infrastructure and regulations to allow for it to happen. As for passenger traffic? I think we will start seeing single pilot technology in major airline cockpits at the end of my career. People are fine if their box goes down in the middle of Nebraska. I am still surprised at how many people still say that they would NEVER own a self-driving car. Until they are comfortable with that, they will never be okay without a pilot. Getting rid of pilot labor doesn't save THAT much.
The next fully automated career field will be taxis and the like. It will probably take 20-30 years to get rid of all taxi cabs. I think cargo pilots will be the first aviation career to be automated. I don't think that'll happen in the next 25 years. It'll take at least that long to create the infrastructure and regulations to allow for it to happen. As for passenger traffic? I think we will start seeing single pilot technology in major airline cockpits at the end of my career. People are fine if their box goes down in the middle of Nebraska. I am still surprised at how many people still say that they would NEVER own a self-driving car. Until they are comfortable with that, they will never be okay without a pilot. Getting rid of pilot labor doesn't save THAT much.
What will dictate this shift is the change in generation. Baby boomers (and older) would definitely not be "OK," with this. Millennials? It would happen tomorrow if it were possible.
#167
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,315
Pilots will be eliminated in less than 20 years, this is absolutely assured. The next level of automation will require a technician to monitor the aircraft. Flying is soon to be a maintenance function, no longer a pilot one. There won't be drones, there just won't be pilots.
It's not about saving the cost of the pilot, that's nothing, it's about being able to get up to 50% more utilization out of the aircraft, increasing billions in revenue.
It's not about saving the cost of the pilot, that's nothing, it's about being able to get up to 50% more utilization out of the aircraft, increasing billions in revenue.
#168
That's certainly how it reads.
#169
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Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,524
If we granted more RJ relief, that would exacerbate the stuff flying off the fan. Lessons have been learned, and applied to multiple contracts at multiple airlines. The ACMI low bidders have peaked. Other than fighting amongst themselves for what we choose to allow, their only options are to go it alone or comply. Almost all will comply, and those that go it alone, well, good luck I guess. But there won't be super jumbo RJ's coming your way. That ship has sailed, and with every month that goes by hundreds of anti-RJ pilots further stack the demographics and those few senior pilots who live up to the stereotype of not caring as long as they get a couple percent more for a few years sail off into the sunset (most aren't like that though).
#170
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Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 2,487
Pilots will be eliminated in less than 20 years, this is absolutely assured. The next level of automation will require a technician to monitor the aircraft. Flying is soon to be a maintenance function, no longer a pilot one. There won't be drones, there just won't be pilots.
It's not about saving the cost of the pilot, that's nothing, it's about being able to get up to 50% more utilization out of the aircraft, increasing billions in revenue.
It's not about saving the cost of the pilot, that's nothing, it's about being able to get up to 50% more utilization out of the aircraft, increasing billions in revenue.