LOL I know right?

Yes some people still think all past trends will continue forever. All signs point to the RJ elevator ride stopping on the 76th floor though. Oh well, it was one heck of a run.

 

There won't be any truck drivers in 10 years, no regional pilots in 15 years, and no mainline pilots in 20 years. I'm being generous too, it's probably much sooner.

 

The current solution is to reduce regional flying and transfer it to the mainline. So far the airline that has taken the lead in that process seems to feel it's working great. So good in fact that they jumped in with both feet making a major and expensive aircraft purchase to continue that process for the next 4 years.
That is certainly great news for regional pilots! Not sure why you're not celebrating it. Seems strange.

 

While I don't disagree in your statement, I think your timeline is ambitious. I think the first thing to go will be truck drivers, most likely in the next 15-20 years. It just takes way too long to purchase that kind of technology especially when current technology is already paid for.

The next fully automated career field will be taxis and the like. It will probably take 20-30 years to get rid of all taxi cabs. I think cargo pilots will be the first aviation career to be automated. I don't think that'll happen in the next 25 years. It'll take at least that long to create the infrastructure and regulations to allow for it to happen. As for passenger traffic? I think we will start seeing single pilot technology in major airline cockpits at the end of my career. People are fine if their box goes down in the middle of Nebraska. I am still surprised at how many people still say that they would NEVER own a self-driving car. Until they are comfortable with that, they will never be okay without a pilot. Getting rid of pilot labor doesn't save THAT much.

 

Pilots will be eliminated in less than 20 years, this is absolutely assured. The next level of automation will require a technician to monitor the aircraft. Flying is soon to be a maintenance function, no longer a pilot one. There won't be drones, there just won't be pilots.

It's not about saving the cost of the pilot, that's nothing, it's about being able to get up to 50% more utilization out of the aircraft, increasing billions in revenue.

 

What will dictate this shift is the change in generation. Baby boomers (and older) would definitely not be "OK," with this. Millennials? It would happen tomorrow if it were possible.

 

So your saying all the current aircraft will be retired in the next 20 years and all the aircraft on order and new types scheduled to be built shortly will be canceled with a all new fleet of completely new airframes built and completed in 20 years. Correct?

 

That's certainly how it reads.

 

If we granted more RJ relief, that would exacerbate the stuff flying off the fan. Lessons have been learned, and applied to multiple contracts at multiple airlines. The ACMI low bidders have peaked. Other than fighting amongst themselves for what we choose to allow, their only options are to go it alone or comply. Almost all will comply, and those that go it alone, well, good luck I guess. But there won't be super jumbo RJ's coming your way. That ship has sailed, and with every month that goes by hundreds of anti-RJ pilots further stack the demographics and those few senior pilots who live up to the stereotype of not caring as long as they get a couple percent more for a few years sail off into the sunset (most aren't like that though).

 

Obviously you have no clue how long a change like that would would be implemented by the FAA. We will have 2 pilot airliners for at least another 50 years. Also, what happens when systems malfunction? Who or what is going to fix the problem? What about hackers? While the technology is right around the corner, the infrastructure and implementation is decades away.