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The MRJ90 and E175-E2 are done


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The MRJ90 and E175-E2 are done

Old 12-08-2016 | 08:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Mesabah
There won't be any truck drivers in 10 years, no regional pilots in 15 years, and no mainline pilots in 20 years. I'm being generous too, it's probably much sooner.
LOL! Yeah ok.

So the machines are taking over, etc. Whatever. That tech has been around for generations and practically viable for decades. But no where near realistic on a cost basis. Humans are simply way cheaper. Especially for flying. Worst case we'll see a reduction on long haul crews. Although it would be pretty funny to see them sign off on a 2 pilot ultra long haul knowing that if something happens the pilot in deep REM sleep will have to spring to life and come help save the day bwahahahah!

Not worried about it in the slightest.
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Old 12-08-2016 | 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Mesabah

It's not about saving the cost of the pilot, that's nothing, it's about being able to get up to 50% more utilization out of the aircraft, increasing billions in revenue.
How does that effect utilization in the slightest?

Turn times have nothing to do with pilots. If anything, we'll see more and more back side of the clock flying and perhaps more stringent regulations on sleep etc. Sucks for the hero who bid back side stuff so they can run businesses and paint their houses during the day but oh well.
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Old 12-08-2016 | 08:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
Only point I have to make is nobody should ever think that any current situation is going to stay as is, because things have, and will always change. Jump down my throat all you want about it, but reality can be very unpleasant at times.
And yet you think the trend vector for regional airlines will always continue towards larger AC. Yes things change, and this is one of them. That trend is rapidly slowing and coming to a stop, and you're far from alone in not being able to accept it.

Now, if your broader point is to always be vigilant and not take things for granted, then of course I agree.
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Old 12-08-2016 | 08:37 AM
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Originally Posted by stringandrudder
What will dictate this shift is the change in generation. Baby boomers (and older) would definitely not be "OK," with this. Millennials? It would happen tomorrow if it were possible.
I disagree completely. I know just as many millennials who are uncomfortable with self-driving cars as I do baby-boomers. It is going to take quite a bit of testing and certification to get the first fully pilotless aircraft. I estimate it to be in the next 40-50 years. Airlines aren't going to park brand new 787s in 15 years and completely repurchase an incredibly more expensive airplane just because it would save them a few dollars per ticket.
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Old 12-08-2016 | 08:44 AM
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Originally Posted by gloopy
How does that effect utilization in the slightest?

Turn times have nothing to do with pilots. If anything, we'll see more and more back side of the clock flying and perhaps more stringent regulations on sleep etc. Sucks for the hero who bid back side stuff so they can run businesses and paint their houses during the day but oh well.
Exactly this. Pilots aren't salary. If you get more utilization, you don't save money. Increasing utilization allows you to get more revenue. Labor is a fixed cost (for the most part) in that equation.

Plus, many mainline aircraft already fly 24/7. The reason they don't isn't because of the pilots. It's because they can't sell enough tickets to fill up an airplane.
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Old 12-08-2016 | 08:58 AM
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Originally Posted by CBreezy
I disagree completely. I know just as many millennials who are uncomfortable with self-driving cars as I do baby-boomers. It is going to take quite a bit of testing and certification to get the first fully pilotless aircraft. I estimate it to be in the next 40-50 years. Airlines aren't going to park brand new 787s in 15 years and completely repurchase an incredibly more expensive airplane just because it would save them a few dollars per ticket.
What could go wrong with a self driving car!

. An entry level pilot will incur a 24-month category freeze. 24 Exception two: A pilot who is in the last 12 months of such category freeze may be 25 awarded an AE or VD to another base for which qualification training is required if he is 26 unable to be awarded an AE or VD to such base in his current position in a given posting. 27 In such event, the balance of his existing category freeze will be added to the category 28 freeze resultin
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Old 12-08-2016 | 09:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
I never once said anything about larger aircraft. YOU are the one saying that.
Oh really now?

My entire point is that the 76 seat limit (along with current weights) is far more likely to hold than to be relieved. You pointed to the metro-CR9 trend as "historical" proof that regionals will continue to be granted ever increasing sized RJ's.

I've said its possible that there could be additional 76's granted for a larger corresponding reduction in seats and block hours in the 50-70 range. But even that was smacked down recently. Could it happen in the future? Maybe. But even that is a far cry from 77+ sized ones, and would require the regional sector to shrink even more, even if it did happen.
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Old 12-08-2016 | 10:42 AM
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
So your saying all the current aircraft will be retired in the next 20 years and all the aircraft on order and new types scheduled to be built shortly will be canceled with a all new fleet of completely new airframes built and completed in 20 years. Correct?
No, not at all, these systems would be added on to current aircraft.
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Old 12-08-2016 | 10:47 AM
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Originally Posted by gloopy
LOL! Yeah ok.

So the machines are taking over, etc. Whatever. That tech has been around for generations and practically viable for decades. But no where near realistic on a cost basis. Humans are simply way cheaper. Especially for flying. Worst case we'll see a reduction on long haul crews. Although it would be pretty funny to see them sign off on a 2 pilot ultra long haul knowing that if something happens the pilot in deep REM sleep will have to spring to life and come help save the day bwahahahah!

Not worried about it in the slightest.
Machine learning does not require Cat III ILS systems, it uses synthetic machine vision to shoot visual approaches in all weather conditions. All that expensive equipment you talk about is actually eliminated, and replaced with much less expensive equipment.

The entire machine learning team at Boeing thinks this can be done within 5 years. Elon Musk thinks it's sooner.
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Old 12-08-2016 | 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
Yes really now. I am curious, how long you been flying mainline with Delta?
Probably not as log as you've been working for SKYW.
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