Quote:
Originally Posted by FAAGoldSealCFI
Do you think a newhire with zero 121 still has a chance at a quick upgrade?? Sorry I'm just trying to learn as I go here. I feel like I almost just made a mistake with republic.
No one knows. If I was a betting man, I would bet JO will get a little bit more flying. But, with a 1200 pilot seniority list currently, getting 1k hours and moving up to the top half in a short time (18-24 months?) is probably not going to happen for anyone hired in the last 6-12 months or in the future. But I think in that time there will be a lot of change in this industry. Things change so fast. Age 67 would grind things to a halt. Some regionals won't make it another 1-5 years. That will cause a shift in flying. Maybe RAH's options for jets goes elsewhere. Maybe oil prices will go back up and 50 seaters will resume finding a new home in the boneyard. Maybe they will stay down or depress further and extend the life of the 50 seater. Maybe 1500 rule gets changed. Maybe mainline pilots will sell more scope and we will start flying e195s/cs100/300s for current regional rates. God knows most of these regional pilots with SJS would fly them for peanuts. If SKW has to park a bunch of 200s, that will offset any new planes they get. They have a lot of lifers. Movement won't be fast there in most scenarios. As of now, with most airlines, quick upgrades have stopped. PSA says they'll still have a quick upgrade a year from now...we will see. In the last year Mesa closed CLT and went from 0 planes in DFW to the majority of their planes in DFW. PHX shrank by about 50%. SKW stopped their CRJ200 LAX flying and we stopped our CRJ900 LAX flying as CPZ brought 175s in to replace it. ENY shut several bases down. These are examples of the ever changing industry. The only certainty in the regionals (and all airlines) in the next 5 years is change. It won't look the same. The best you can do is make an educated gamble. If you want to play more conservative, go to a more respected regional that has better QOL so you can ride out industry waves (SKW). That said, plenty of good regionals have been bad choices for people (comair/eagle/xjt) with stagnation/shut downs. If there is a regional where you live, go there. TPIC time will be less important over these next 5 years as retirements pick up. Don't make many lateral moves and don't chase a mythical quick upgrade or rely on a flow that probably won't work as advertised. Way fewer people have flowed or upgraded when promised by recruiters than have been burned banking on those promises.
Thats a bunch of rambling about airlines you seem to be looking at. Your best bet is to just go to one and start flying. Only you can figure out if that airline suits your lifestyle needs. It'll take living through contractual issues, scheduling issues, getting harassed by crew tracking, furloughs, cancelations and associated loss of pay, reserve life, etc., to have a full understanding of what each airline has to offer with their version of the turd that is the regional airline contract. Each airline just polishes it a little differently (except Mesa, they (and our union) don't even try to polish it). I read up on all those things for the airlines I was considering and ended up picking the one I would live in base the fastest (Mesa/PHX).
09-16-2015
