Prior to the first displacement UAL had about 13,500 pilots on the seniority list BUT 11,438 "active" pilots staffed in categories. The difference between the total list and active list is due to PIs, management pilots, LTD, LOA, and pilots that retired since the previous annual seniority list update.

When I divide the post-merger hires by the active pilots I get exactly 34%.

If you guys are wondering why cadet used active it’s because the MEC chair said that’s the number to use In the P2P brief on 6/11. If you use the most recent displacement bid 20-08D 30% is 3498.3 pilots. My guess is 3500 letters go out but I would not be surprised if everyone hired post merger gets a letter (that would include myself).

Correct.

Historically, if one was a manpower director trying to re-size the airline to fly exactly a 70% schedule in the summer of '21, one would also reduce furloughs by the number of expected retirements in the interim.

Typically, it does not make sense to furlough pilots seasonally due to both furlough pay and the necessity of recalling (and training) pilots in time to fly the schedule.

Make your own assumptions if we are in a typical situation.

No reason to speculate on how many... actual # will be out tomorrow or next day....

That’s true-hopefully they only need to hire 1or 2. I only posted the 10th most junior guy as a frame of reference. Every couple PIs they need to hire cuts pretty deep into the list.

Go back and re-download the seniority list. Everyone moved up one number, i.e. the junior pilot is now 13,047... Have no idea why it changed today.

Wow. They literally updated it late this afternoon.

So much for static numbers, huh?

I'm at 3502 from the bottom, does that mean I can start sleeping again?

Nope. I’m 3600 from the bottom. If I don’t get furloughed this month that just means I have a job until November 1st.....and so on until they start recalling.

except you’re MTSU. So yes, you can. You’re story is BS. You know it. Truth be told, you probably sprinkled a couple elements of truth with a bunch of BS, just to rationalize your own prejudices. I can make up stories to slam CAL if I wanted anecdotal stories to post online to try to show how righteous I am, but that would be asinine. Kinda like your story.