Furlough estimate
07-01-2020 | 09:53 AM
#981
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 188
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From: EWR 777 FO
I’m hearing a lot of rumors over the last day and a half of furlough letters to all post SLI pilots going out first of next week. Would be nice to know what is going on from an official source for a change. Anyone else hearing anything?
07-01-2020 | 10:13 AM
#982
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2013
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Good luck with being in a position to “snap back” if that’s the case. However, they could be clearing the way for the JB merger. 🤬
07-01-2020 | 10:17 AM
#983
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Joined: Oct 2010
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That said, here's some numbers using the new July 1 seniority list:
- First post merger hire: 9,154
- First pilot hired after January 23, 2016 : 10,727 (furloughs senior to this requires seat removal from UAX 76 seaters)
- Junior pilot on list: 13,048
Last edited by cadetdrivr; 07-01-2020 at 10:28 AM.
07-01-2020 | 10:45 AM
#984
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Joined: Mar 2006
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From: SFO Guppy CA
I personally have not heard that rumor from anybody I trust to have inside info. (Not saying it's true or false.)
That said, here's some numbers using the new July 1 seniority list:
That said, here's some numbers using the new July 1 seniority list:
- First post merger hire: 9,154
- First pilot hired after January 23, 2016 : 10,727 (furloughs senior to this requires seat removal from UAX 76 seaters)
- Junior pilot on list: 13,048
07-01-2020 | 10:54 AM
#985
Squawking 2000
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 737
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From: Skeptical
I think that they’re going to go right up to the January 23rd date with notices. Delta is sending out 2,558 this week. They have about 1500 pilots more than we do. If we send out notices to that date, it will be less overall but higher percentage than Delta. If we actually furlough 30%, we’ll lose market share.
That 30%, by the way, equates to 3,915 pilots.
07-01-2020 | 11:03 AM
#986
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Joined: Oct 2010
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I think that they’re going to go right up to the January 23rd date with notices. Delta is sending out 2,558 this week. They have about 1500 pilots more than we do. If we send out notices to that date, it will be less overall but higher percentage than Delta. If we actually furlough 30%, we’ll lose market share.
Of course, given the various limits for federal, state, and UPA advance notice requirements it unfortunately makes sense to notify more pilots than probably desired. It's easy for the company to cancel furloughs without penalty as they fine tune their staffing requirements.
But we are in uncharted territory and have no idea what demand will look like next year. Just because the official line is 30% does not mean it can't ultimately be cuts anywhere between 60% and 0%.
07-01-2020 | 11:34 AM
#988
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 69
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I posted this in another thread but is relevant here:
They have openings for both 320 and 73 instructors. Not sure how many 320 PIs they need but there are 4,364 pilots between our most junior pilot and the 10th most junior 320 PI. (Assuming I did my math right)
They have openings for both 320 and 73 instructors. Not sure how many 320 PIs they need but there are 4,364 pilots between our most junior pilot and the 10th most junior 320 PI. (Assuming I did my math right)
07-01-2020 | 11:40 AM
#989
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Joined: Jan 2008
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From: UAL Guppy CA
what is the significance of the 10th most junior PI? I see 4 in the bottom 2500 or so. Without knowing how many they are hiring it’s hard to speculate the significance no?
07-01-2020 | 12:00 PM
#990
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Joined: Nov 2018
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FWIW, if UAL furloughs all the way up to the post-merger cutoff it represents a cut representing about 34% of the pre-covid "active pilots" and also does not make an allowance for retirements between now and next summer or any mitigations.
Of course, given the various limits for federal, state, and UPA advance notice requirements it unfortunately makes sense to notify more pilots than probably desired. It's easy for the company to cancel furloughs without penalty as they fine tune their staffing requirements.
But we are in uncharted territory and have no idea what demand will look like next year. Just because the official line is 30% does not mean it can't ultimately be cuts anywhere between 60% and 0%.
Of course, given the various limits for federal, state, and UPA advance notice requirements it unfortunately makes sense to notify more pilots than probably desired. It's easy for the company to cancel furloughs without penalty as they fine tune their staffing requirements.
But we are in uncharted territory and have no idea what demand will look like next year. Just because the official line is 30% does not mean it can't ultimately be cuts anywhere between 60% and 0%.
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