Here’s a smoother chart. You can see the trend was down but has reversed. Looking at the shape of the weekly cycle you can see that things will be up for this last week of July. My question is how much of this weekly shape trend is business travel? Any? How will this all be impacted when school starts?

Just a guess, but when school starts, it will have some amount of negative impact on the numbers, but possibly not as bad of an impact as the starting of school would normally have given the increased amount of online/homeschooling occurring for this school year.

The degree to which schools are going to be open seems to be varying significantly. Here in CLT, (all of NC?) the schools will be entirely online after a couple of weeks of in-person orientation type class. Where as just south of the border I believe SC schools will be full-time in person.

We have decided, all things considered, to homeschool for the coming school year with our children.

If school starts.

For a lot of districts it’s no foregone conclusion...

I have a series of charts I publish for my pilot group; this is/was one of the questions that we've attempted to address. The table below shows 2019 data, compiled from .gov transportation data sources, of passenger counts for each month of 2019. Using April as a base month, I computed a coefficient by which to adjust the others months by. You can use this data in conjunction with the TSA data to help answer your question about what might happen when school starts etc.You'll notice that there is a definite drop in September, but I don't know that there is any data that separates leisure vs. business travel during that period. Lots of people have opinions and guesses, and without any data to support those positions, that's all they are.

Unfortunately we can’t directly apply your ratio to our April numbers as our April was just depressed by lockdown. However the delta in the last few months using your numbers is encouraging at least. It may be propped up with business travelers, however.

I also find the international percent interesting when considering our recovery. Roughly half the flying is feed for international and international. Looking at being 25 percent I think we can say roughly 25 percent of flying is domestic business.

I disagree. Doesn’t matter however since the April 2020 data point divided by 1.0 remains unchanged.

The coefficient isn’t really month specific; it could use any month as the base month. What it really does is allows a glimpse of how current numbers might be affected by monthly trends seen in a normal year.

Said another way, adjusted for seasonality the “flatness” seen right now would actually be a decline if we normalized data across the year.

7-26: 27.8%
7-27: 27.4%
7-28: 26.5%

also, travel searches for various cities, to include Las Vegas, and Orlando, have declined substantially compared to the # of searches a few months ago. These are likely "leisure" searches as most large companies have agreements/contracts and travel officers for corporate travel. LINK: https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends

That’s assuming a lot based upon a comparison of only one year (2019). Certainly Jan -Feb appear to be down months - down 12 and 17% from base month and the drop off from August to September appears real - but the fact that one year ago we witnessed a roughly 4% rise between Jun and July that we aren’t seeing now - it just seems a little soft calling it a decline when we don’t really know what the year to year variance is preCOVID. Could just be noise.

And of course this year’s ‘school start’ may be greatly different from most school starts...

All true. But data from the previous three years is pretty similar, and in any event it's a lot more rational than pure speculation based on nothingness. In the end, it's another data-backed way to help interpret current data that may or may not be useful. That's it.