I was in a briefing back in April where SD and JG both spoke and they individually stated they were expecting retirements to range 20-35% above age 65 alone.

The question is: How much profit?

At $75 a barrel it’s about $2B less.
At $100 a barrel?

Well I was looking at the next 12 months so our numbers are essentially the same.

If oil goes to 100 I am sure they will still make a profit. They will do it however by limiting block hours to drive yields up.

Don’t you think the U.S oil/fracking industry will help keep oil below $100 though. I was reading about the new realities of oil prices a year or so ago. It costs Saudi Arabia around $15 to pull a barrel of oil out of the ground and it costs the US frackers about $60-65. The theory was that when oil prices exceeded $65 a barrel, all the US rigs would spool up again and bring more oil to market and reduce the severity of price shocks. I’m not too worried about $100 oil, except for a possible short term move, based on geopolitical fear.

At the moment there is a bottleneck in distribution for oil coming from fracking regions. For example, there are not enough pipelines coming from the Permian Basin in Texas to take all that is or could be produced.

Also, the US said they would impose sanctions on anyone taking Iranian oil. That’s about 5M barrels a day.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/08/inve...sin/index.html

Plus there has been underinvestment in production oveall.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sh-over-growth

Oil companies are not investing money in exploration because of how low prices have been recently. Last year oil companies found the least amount of new oil in over 70 years.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/03/25/the-oil-market-problem-no-one-is-talking-aboutyet.aspx

We haven’t even seen the beginnings of Trump’s sanctions on Iran and what that can do to oil price. Inflation is starting to rear its head as well. My money is we hit $100 oil by this time next year.

I see very few people flying the line retiring or even cutting back on block hours prior to mandatory retirement age. In fact, most guys tell me flying every week is like a vacation for them to get out of the house, and they love it.

I think a large part of that number is from people who lose their medical prior to 65.

There is no chance of oil going to $100 GSZG/Jerry said we would be riding high with oil below $30 a barrel. Are you saying he is wrong?

A quick google search shows the US is now number two in oil production in the world passing Saudi Arabia in 2018 Q1. According to a couple sources on the inter webs advance in fracking technology make it profitable at around $45 an As for future prices I have no idea where they will head. Projects call for $70ish for this year and next