Han Solo

I'm a line pilot and I don't have any friends in management, so this is just my personal perspective. Until the results of the ongoing AE are published I don't think the company even knows when hiring and training will resume. Delta bulked up ATL when they consolidated most of the MD88s there but now it's time to pay the piper and there are significantly more surpluses than vacancies in the base. If management opts to go through with all 125 MD88 captain and 110(?) FO displacements, you're looking at 235 training events (minus any M88 captains who go back to M88 FO) plus any secondaries that result from whomever they might displace. If they follow through with this, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't have any new classes until next year. I think management sent information to those with a CJO that they'd resume training in the fall. Somewhere there is a discontinuity. If there are mass displacements then there's no training capacity for new hires. For there to be enough surplus capacity to train new hires in the fall, management probably can't displace all the ATL pilots it has claimed it will. Again, this is just a line pilot reading the tea leaves.

sailingfun

If they don’t hire in the fall they will need to restructure aircraft deliveries or park airframes and tell marketing they can’t fly the business plan. 250 displacements is not the big deal some are claiming. A much smaller training department handled massive displacements and retirements in the early 2000 era. Hiring will be driven by the block hour plan for next summer not by training.
Far more important will be the price of jet fuel in determing hiring. Jet fuel will directly drive marketing’s block hour plan.

GogglesPisano

“Network.” Network Planning plans and runs the airline.

“Marketing” simply advertises and sells tickets.

Peoloto

I think they will have to fire up new hire classes again as soon as this ae closes. Have any of you looked at how many people have AE bids in for the C10 B spots in both bases? Interesting....but not surprising.

Funk

So, what is it you foresee?


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Peoloto

I think they won't have enough people bid for them as fos and they will need to fill them with new hires ASAP. JMO

Han Solo

250 displacements? You’re killing me. Did you forget about the 300+ MSP88 pilots as well? Then throw in the secondary displacements. Let’s put that in perspective, a big month of new hires is 100/month to train. We’ve got the equivalent of over 5 months of “new hire” training stacked up before anybody even bids on an open position. Can the training department handle it? We'll see.

Good point on the CS100 though, might need a class or two to staff the FO side of that fella.

TED74

No way. Too many people stuck on the 88, grasping for any hope of breaking their seat lock asap.

sailingfun

I was speaking of the ATL displacements. Even counting all the displacements it’s not that bad. A bad displacement bid is when there is no upward movement. With upward movement a displacement has about the same effect as a AE. The 88b positions over the course of the year will likely create few secondary displacements.
Everyone is again forgetting that block hours drive pilot jobs and hiring. If flight ops says they can’t meet the business plan heads will roll. I have never seen that happen. This is a 1 year bid. They will manage it just fine.
As far as the CS100 keep in mind you can be assigned unfilled positions. Again however this could only happen if the block hour plan is reduced. They don’t have to hire to staff it.

“Prior to transferring unassigned pilots, the Company will proffer transfer opportunities to such pilots in seniority order. Assignments that remain unfilled after such proffers will be filled in inverse seniority order.”

Things have been so good here for so long most don’t even know the above can and has happened.

FL370esq

I'm not so sure your comment properly reflects how 22.E.11 works.

First off, you need to be an unassigned pilot. By definition (22.A.23), an "unassigned pilot" is "a pilot in excess of PWA staffing requirements who is
assigned to an aircraft type and base but does not currently hold a status."

"Status" is defined (22.A.21) as "a pilot’s rank as Captain or First Officer."

In order to become an "unassigned pilot," there would have to be displacements to the point that the most junior pilots are pushed out of the most junior position (B717FO) and they now have nowhere to go but they also cannot be furloughed. Any pilot assigned to a base and seat (i.e., ATLM88B) is, by definition, not an unassigned pilot. Therefore the provisions of 22.E.11 would not apply. If not enough pilots bid the CSeries FO spots, it will take either new hires to staff that category or a whole lot more displacements through shrinking manning to push current seniority list pilots into it. However, it becomes a bit more interesting in the sense that the CSeries is above the B717 in the Order of Positions so, you would, in effect, be forcing pilots upsteam via a Mandatory Displacement to fill those vacancies. I just don't see it happening in the near future.