Turbosina

Honestly none of us know. I don't think MT and CC know, either. So if anyone tells you that they do know, they're pulling stuff out of thin air.

When I got hired they wanted me to take the Brasilia because "we need a lot of Brasilia pilots." A year later they got rid of every single Brasilia. Fortunately I'd declined the Bro and had gone straight to the CRJ.

Also, when I got hired, SLC was impossible to hold as an FO (as in, many years to even make it onto reserve in SLC.) Now they're sending newhires to SLC.

Houston was a giant base, now it's barely clinging to existence.

PDX CRJ was a small base but super senior. Now it doesn't exist.

MSP was our most junior base, with lots and lots of movement. Now MSP appears to be stagnating and DTW (new base) is most junior on the CRJ.

I could go on and on. There is absolutely no way for anyone to tell you which fleet and which base will grow, and which will shrink, because it changes month-to-month.

The only 2 things constant in this industry are:

1) Change. Don't come to an airline or choose an airframe because of a particular base (ask all the SkyWest guys who used to be based in SBP, SMF, SAN, PDX CRJ, IAH, etc etc.) Bases, airframes, and flying contracts come and go.

2) Seniority is everything. I deferred my class date by a few months for various reasons. That difference of a few months means a 10% difference in seniority in my base and on my fleet, which can mean the difference between being on reserve and holding a line. When times turn bad (as they certainly will, it's only a question of when), a difference of one seniority number can mean the difference between having a job and being on the street.

ncsean

Totally this. I thought about delaying a few months because I had a bonus due at the 135 company I was working for...Then my dad asked me "What is 3-4 months worth when you upgrade? What's it worth at the end of your career if you're lucky enough to make it to a major?" Point taken and I took the first class I had the hours for. 10/10 would do again.

MajHam

Thanks to you all again ...that last bit was sobering.

I've been deferring my class date for a couple months now, legitimate reasons, but nonetheless, no more.

How about this: Is it possible the CRJ could atrophy (like the Brasília) within the next 2 years?

(not trying to start anything, just wondering if it's conceivable)

Turbosina

Sure, it's possible. If we have another 9/11, or if Drumpf starts a trade war or basically continues to run his mouth on Twitter, we could see fuel prices skyrocket again. If that happens, more 50-seaters will get parked. But that will be the least of our worries.

If fuel prices stay where they are, and we don't have another 9/11, the 50-seaters may stay for quite some time. They operate a lot (actually, possibly all, I'm not sure) of Skywest's at-risk flying, and that has been very profitable flying.

Again, though, it really doesn't matter. What matters is your seniority number. Worst case, you take the CRJ, and a year from now Skywest parks that airplane. If we park all CRJs a year from now, you'll be furloughed along with plenty of guys, but your choice of airframe will make no difference. You could take the 175 and you'd still get furloughed. (If we park all CRJs, that implies a dramatic reduction in flying, similar to what's happening at ExpressJet.)

Even if, say, SKW does a more gradual transition of all flying to the 175, all that matters is your seniority number. You'd have to go back to training in order to transition to the 175, but so what?

Seniority is everything. It really is.

Is offline

You really think they are gonna park all the 200's in a year? That is where they make the most profit, and it will be around for years. The price of oil will go back up but that will hardly be Trumps fault, but whatever it takes to get you to sleep at night.

Turbosina

Not without an unusual event. But ask the guys who got hired at mainline between, say, '98 and '01 how their careers worked out for them. Events like 9/11 or another Mideast oil embargo will park 50-seaters in an instant.

Point is, nobody can predict what will happen in this industry. Given the frequency with which the majors shift their FFD flying around, anyone who comes to a regional for a particular aircraft or base and assumes that they'll be able to stay in that aircraft or base for an extended period of time...is likely going to be unpleasantly surprised.

chitolin

So, rumor has it we will pick some 175 flying from AA. .. discuss


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N1234

It is my understanding that there will be lots of AA flying ... In ORD but also PHX and LAX. But all CRJ as far as I can tell...

gazoo34

This is not 2001 and there wasn't 1200 retirements per year...they will not retire the 200s and as much as I hate to say it Skywest will be around and they will continue to buy regional contracts. I hate the regionals but until young pilots realize they are worth more and the lives they protect are worth more than minimum wage regionals will be part of aviation.

WaterRooster

Just that.... Rumor. All the 175s that are coming online are spoken for by United. So unless we have a handful that are not on our books yet, its all CRJ flying