The only thing that would make a difference is upgrades moving east. Once the junior airtran guys can hold central time zone and east, they will start to take the upgrade. With that being said, it's not a huge number of guys. This is the first huge wave up upgrades we have had since the etops lock and I think instead of seeing the traditional 10 percent bypass rate, we are going to see it slightly elevated.

People bypass for all different reasons. Choosing to bypass and choosing to Lance are the only two real choices you get at SWA. So in six months or so when my class is upgrading, I can choose to spend the holidays in Oakland on reserve, or I can spend it at home killing it in premium FO trips. Seems like a no brainer to me, but to those who covet the captain seat and all that comes with it or who fear a recession and it's consequences, it may seem like a worthwhile trade.

Besides, I just got home from vacation and I have vacations scheduled in August, October, and December. Can't do that on weekend Oakland reserve either.

 

I'm not a bypasser *yet* but I expect to be 55-57 yrs old when I could theoretically upgrade if I took the first available seat. Also, if things go well I'd like to retire prior to age 65. If we get even a halfway decent contract I think I can do that on the FO payscale. Every day I delay retirement after age 59 I'll be chanting 5 and 20 and staring at the clock... Not gonna phone it in and make my co-workers do my work for me, but I sure as heck won't be looking for opportunities to "take one for the team." SWA management and training scheduling used up my entire second career's worth of give-a-crap in under 4 years. I'm working for $, not high-fives.

 

This exactly. I’m 55 and can’t hold it. I’ll bypass until I can hold what I like, which will be reserve in base and I may hold out for senior reserve or a line if I can wait. Which I can.

5th and 20th and watching the clock. No current plans to go to 65.

 

As a senior, bypassing 12-yr (or more) FO flying mostly premium trips, you can make as much or more than a 12-yr (or more) CA who isn’t that senior without flying many, or possibly any, additional days. And you have a better schedule comprised mostly of turns, 2-days, and 3-days (if you desire). A juniorish, bottom half CA will probably be stuck with at least one 4-day per month and almost definitely, mostly 3-days. That all assumes the CA isn’t really able to get much or any premium. Tournament playing cartel members are a different matter.

 

This is a big reason why people bypass. I don't think a lot of folks get this. If there is at least a moderate amount of premium flying available, you can make captain money with your senior FO schedule and vacation.

The premium train we have been on for the last year or so is bound to end once we hire ourselves out of it or the economy tanks. One or the other is definitely going to happen.

 

Yep. The stock and crypto markets have already crashed. Housing is beginning to show signs of wobbling. Car market beginning to weaken. War in Ukraine. China threatening over Taiwan. Rampant inflation due largely to all the covid stimulus. Just like in the mid-2000’s with the housing market except now it’s multiple markets (housing, cars, food, gas, etc), at some point most people simply can’t keep paying the prices being asked.

 

Rumor had it "hiring team" is telling prospective/current new hires their upgrade will be 5-6 years. Truth to this? And if so how exactly are they getting to this data?

 

Not surprising. They always put a positive spin on things. They are undoubtedly predicating that on their most ambitious plans coming to fruition.

Upgrade is at 8.5 years and trending down right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see 6 years in a massive growth situation. That being said, every time they have predicted massive growth in the last 8 years that I have been here, there has been some unpredicted event that has crushed any hope of that happening.

 

I never heard anything like this from recruiters or anywhere in the interview process.

 

i’m 37 and I’m already at the 20th club. SWA management needs to send themselves Lead with Luv. Maybe they’ll learn something from it.

I don’t even take the advance…that just means I don’t owe them anything if I decide to walk off the plane one day and FedEx them my iPad and ID back.