Ok. Won't matter anyway. The only thing that is going to save you is Hard 8 going out of business in the next two years.

 

How many upgrades planned in 2022 alone again and how many aircraft deliveries?

In any case, if Hard 8's goes out of business or is unavailable for any reason, I propose we change venue to a Brazilian steakhouse with appropriate alcohol.

 

1050 according the newly minted CKA I’m sitting next to right now.

 

if a check airman says it, it MUST be true. The only source more reliable than them is the wives page on Facebook.

 

Oh yeah buddy, you better start working out that left arm... don't want to pull something running that tiller...

You're a 106 number right?

 

He literally just got back from a month in DAL and that’s what every exec told his class and matches what was published by Bob or Alan or whoever wrote the memo. Will find out if they can find enough people to make it work….

 

or find enough instructors

 

We will see won’t we. You seen the price of fuel? Second largest expense in business. Other carriers are already claiming 4Q not looking good due to fuel prices. If people cannot get food and basic necessities, what makes you think they are going go and buy $400 airline ticket?

 

Ah someone without a firm grasp of the market economy. I present to you the boogie man of earlier 2021. Lumber…due to the rush of demand and tariffs put in by the previous administration the prices skyrocketed, heard all these stories of lumber going to be the new inflation hedge, guess what? Lumber has TANKED, just about back down to 2018 levels. Not bad considering housing starts are nearing record highs. Consumers adjusted and the market adjusted. If we can get the tariffs removed it will drop even more.

Gas prices will be the same thing. People are feeling free of the virus, they are traveling. 18 months ago oil spot prices went negative. Now it’s screaming back, it will adjust that I guarantee.

World isn’t falling apart, demand is way up and supply was cut back in 2020 to adjust for the market, it will adjust again.

Supply and demand, the beautiful part of the free market!

Lastly you obviously didn’t actually listen to the earnings call. Sure oil prices are rising and denting profitability BUT United has already said they are exceeding 2019 demand over the holidays, proving that inflation so far is not an issue.

 

I’m not doubting that management said that. What I’m doubting is it’s even possible. They have supply side constraints right now in Dallas. They cannot produce enough pilots from the supply pipeline to keep up with the demand they need. If you look at putting through 1K upgrades and 1K new hires and requalifications along with 9K recurrence. (Rough numbers) that’s roughly what 116K work days through training a year company wide. Or around 300 a day if run at 365 days or 13 an hour. Possible but based on historical data I doubt it. If they pull it off someone deserves a bonus, if they fail someone deserves to be fired.

BTW the “work day” is a widget, it has absolutely no quantification other than for comparison purposes over time.