something something business model something accountants blah blah taxes something frequency blah blah seasonal revenue something incentives route structure something something

Doing anything operationally to "attract pilots" in this industry is ludicrous. There's a reason first year pay rates usually aren't even negotiated, and the periods of pilot "shortages" are never very long. Certainly not long enough to justify the whole process of opening a base and adjusting the entire route structure and business model. Don't make the mistake of thinking any major or legacy airline (or air line) execs are staying awake at night worrying about how to attract more pilots. We're not some precious metal they have to dig for in the exact right spot to get. First year pay and a less adversarial application and interview process is far more likely to attract more applicants than opening a whole base just to try to deal with what history shows is very likely to be a very short-lived pilot shortage.

 

yeah i just watched that video of how they're going to kick DEN in the nuts some more.

 

I just don't get it. Even the graphic they flash on screen shows DEN with the most flights per day of any SWA domicile, but they continue to cut DEN staffing and then go into panic mode when there is no one to cover the inevitable DEN disruptions.

 

I’ve been DEN based for a decade almost and am looking at a forced commute in the Spring. QOL is worse now than when I upgraded almost 3 yrs ago. DEN people are ****ed and not many willing to help this place out anymore. They could easily staff red eye flights out of the west coast bases but would rather screw with our QOL for no reason instead. 5/20…

 

I am a commuter, but I just left DEN after spending a good long while hanging there. In the end, it wasn't worth it for me to keep hanging on and watching my seniority and QOL erode. I was looking at spending another winter there vs heading somewhere warmer with fewer disruptions affecting commuting and hotels that aren't 20 miles away, but my end plan was to hang out because the original network planning video had the big drawdown ending after the summer. Then they went minus double digits again and it was like getting kicked in the gut. I could have left earlier and enjoyed much better seniority for vacation bidding as well. Hopefully me leaving saved someone from being displaced.

I think it's shameful how the company would rather upend peoples lives for months to years in order to shift manning around domiciles for seasonal and short term network adjustments. It's another example of the platitudes vs actions that our "culture" is all about. It almost feels like network planning is just throwing things at the wall and then seeing what works. There haven't really been any macro adjustments outside of redeye flying. Now they are clearly playing "I have a secret"' with the next forecast. 300 people completely unaccounted for means that they are either completely full of crap or another base is going to be opened. The difference with this one vs BNA is that there is basically no hiring going on to absorb the blow. There is going to be a giant wave of further displacements.

 

If you look at DEN, they are just moving aircraft that would have normally terminated in DEN, to moving airplanes to the out stations on the overnights. Hence why they will have overnights in HDN and MTJ. That creates less RON’s that causes a need for less pilots in domicile. The percentage of reserves will still be the same. Obviously less bodies but that’s crew plannings call. Basically they are creating a bank of flights(just like other airlines do) of connecting itineraries into that morning bank. It will drive hopefully incremental load factor and hopefully better yields. In the big scheme of things, that’s all that matters in the puzzle palace. DEN will still have more flights than any other domicile in the system. They cut 11 flights a day on average but will have 263 flights a day. It could be worse. Look in ATL. They cut the flights by almost half. Not pretty there.

What I got out of the update was we are hiring. That’s a good thing. It means some future vacancies will be filled by new hires and not displacements. Red eyes are definitely causing the need to add additional pilots for sure plus the red eye RAP’s should be coming soon also. They are creating a lot more connectivity then in years past for the spring schedule. It will interesting to see if it helps them get this place back on its financial footing. The table is set for 2026. All these initiatives they put into place that started this last spring will be fully implemented by March. Wallstreet and the BOD will be watching.

 

Just remember something. This place has been burning cash every quarter. Even when you take dividends and stock buybacks out. SWA is a barely profitable company to date. That has to change. I do agree it sucks for the guys getting booted out of base but eating a cost like that is not in the cards. They just can’t play that game anymore. When they fired 1700 employees a few months ago, that bandaid came off. If the math works, they will displace crew members if necessary. If or when they open up a new base it will trigger a host of provisions within the CBA that guys can fully take advantage if they choose to move. Since MS hinted that will try to minimize displacements, it probably means which station has the most RON’s and how many crew members are living there. Just as BNA did in the first couple of waves of staffing the base. Which will hopefully help with the least amount of displacements.

 

You’ve got 30+ airplanes (47 next March) that aren’t overnighting anymore anywhere because they’re doing redeyes. Staffing by RON doesn’t work when planes are moving 24 hrs a day. If the flights out of a base aren’t changing (like it did with ATL) then manning should be stable. The red eye legs originate out west. There’s no reason to kick 500 people out of their base and grow BWI when you can keep manning stable…they only want the redeye leg at the end of a trip because it’s easier to not give you 15 hrs off in the middle of the pairing…plenty of late night flights out of BWI and MCO to get you back into the system. Having a trip block 10 and pay 20 isn’t efficient.

Nobody at HQ cares what I think though. I emailed after the Oct vacancy showed -12 and questioned why the July video which showed no more displacements for the fall. They said, “things change and keep watching our videos for the latest”. I almost emailed back, “you mean the videos that will change in a month depending where your dart lands?” I get this place has to overhaul how they do business to avoid ending up like Spirit…it just tastes like bile in your throat after puking when the next email you get is the C Suite telling you how much they appreciate you and love their employees.

 

So... they don't need to worry about desirable bases going forward, but not placating the bottom FEW that are getting displaced or their seniority watered down is shameful? Ok.

 

Tell us your reasoning that it can't make sense for the company at the same time it is desirable to the seniority list. Use Austin or San Diego vs MCI or STL. Then tell us why United did it with Orlando and Tampa. Maybe look at their hiring numbers in the next few years vs what it looked like when all these companies were forced to scrape the bottom of the barrel for scraps.