Take anything you hear here on APC about any airline and subtract the suck x3 and that’s probably what it’s actually like at whatever company.

 

I would further hazard a guess that reasonably active APC posters comprise a small percentage of any given airline. I would say a ~2% to 5% slice of the pilot group. The other 95% or so are less critically inclined than APC posters. They have better things to do than post on APC. (spend time on hobbies or spend countless hours on the computer massaging their schedule, etc.) Or they just might fly their line, deal with the deck of cards dealt them, and enjoy whatever there is to be enjoyed.

 

Front cover of the alpa magazine, I'm impressed and surprised.

 

Yeah, I’m impressed and surprised that I actually opened it up and read a few pages. Normally I just throw the “ALPA SAVES THE WORLD” rag right in the trash with the rest of the junk mail.

 

[sarcasm]Thanks for your thoughtful response and answering my questions...[/sarcasm]

I gather that you'd like to have seen higer training pay and higher first year FO pay along with profit sharing in this contract. And, because those things weren't included you expect people to jump ship just as they get close to being able to upgrade.

My upgrade statement was based on current status. At legacies, 12-15 year upgrades are currently the norm, but those times will come down in the next few years. I'd still love to see your calculations that put legacy upgrades at 2-5 years (excluding the RJs being flown by mainline carriers, like the E-Jets and soon to be C-Series). If you were on property at AA today, you'd move about 1/3rd of the way up the list in the next 6 years based on mandatory retirements. The most junior (least desireable) bases would be in reach for NB CA upgrade at that point, but the most senior bases require being more than 50% of the way up the list to hold NB CA.

 

Just curious, what percentage do you base your upgrade predictions on?

 

AA has 737 captains who were hired in 2008. By next year it could easily be down to 2013.

 

I don't have my numbers with me, but I think they were based on being 7000 from the bottom at AA, which is around the 45th percentile in a group of close to 15,000 pilots. The junior NB bases can be had at ~5000 from the bottom (33rd percentile)while the most junior NB CA at the most senior base is 8000-9000 from the bottom (IIRC). 45th percentile seems like a reasonable metric considering some more senior FOs will not upgrade, instead choosing to remain FOs for the associated QOL. Again, that doesn't count the E195 since it is going away (allegedly) and when it does those 2-year CAs will get displaced back to the right seat. Also, they'll have the MD-80 displacements that pull the other Group 2+ seniority up.

As the retirements peak the upgrade times come back up. A 2023 AA new hire would be back at 10+ years to upgrade given only mandatory retirement attrition and my 45th percentile metric. The real question is if the 33rd percentile CA upgrade at junior bases will be the norm or a rarity.

This also doesn't take any additional growth into consideration. At this point the AA hiring goals barely account for the mandatory retirements, much less additional pilots for growth.

As a AA WO regional guy I haven't worked these numbers for DL, UAL, or SWA yet since I'm years away from being competitive for OTS hiring (at least in my mind).

Even if AA's WOs and other regionals come out with an off-cycle $20/hr raise across the board, we're not going to see 2nd year Spirit FO pay, even in the left seat.

I guess my question for anyone on the inside at any of the "majors" is: Do you have additional input regarding upgrade times in the coming retirement wave and are adjustments to upgrade time predicated on additional growth beyond retirement attrition (like it seems Spirit's current upgrades are)?

 

So some big hiring gaps exist. I hadn't taken those into consideration. Most of my calculations for AA are based on seniority numbers, not DOH and only look to the future based on attrition from mandatory retirement.

I don't have the data to do an analysis for Spirit, but the retirements aren't looming there like they are at the legacies.

 

Yea there are big hiring gaps. But there are also former US pilots hired in 13 who are senior to 01 twa hires. So that’s a big part of it as well.