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Macjet 03-10-2020 03:24 PM


Originally Posted by Slowhawk (Post 2993564)
Like every other news headline, people won’t remember this coronavirus by December. I swear if the news outlets didn’t broadcast/exaggerate it 24/7 for their ratings, we wouldn’t be facing this meltdown.

as far as the 2020 hiring, they planned for 64/month and so far they have hit or exceeded those numbers in every single month. April has 68 new hires scheduled. Subject to change at any time of course, but so far so good. I doubt it will stop but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they cut it in half for a short while.

I think as long as this virus doesn’t lead to another recession, we might make it out fine.

reserves are gonna be bored for a while though

20+ resignations in January alone. We're going to need to hire 68/month to outpace attrition.

Slowhawk 03-10-2020 03:59 PM


Originally Posted by Macjet (Post 2993775)
20+ resignations in January alone. We're going to need to hire 68/month to outpace attrition.

curious, where can we see those numbers?

DrSteveBrule 03-10-2020 04:17 PM

Today's SeekingAlpha write up on SAVE was equal parts encouraging and completely frightening. Check it out...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...sk-high-reward

elmetal 03-10-2020 04:49 PM

oil hasn't been 105 for over 5 years. have we just not been successful over the past 5 years somehow? seems far fetched.

FNGFO 03-10-2020 05:00 PM


Originally Posted by elmetal (Post 2993854)
oil hasn't been 105 for over 5 years. have we just not been successful over the past 5 years somehow? seems far fetched.

We’ve not been as successful as we could have been with oil at that price point. Or do you think BS like AA’s foolery with the E island, fare matching and gate limiting at DFW would go on if their fuel prices were 20-30% higher than they’ve been for the last half decade? Give them $100+ per barrel oil and the price differential becomes stark in a ULCC’s favor.

senecacaptain 03-10-2020 06:40 PM


Originally Posted by DrSteveBrule (Post 2993835)
Today's SeekingAlpha write up on SAVE was equal parts encouraging and completely frightening. Check it out...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...sk-high-reward

FYI, Seeking Alpha has a lot of amateur journalists/stock analysts writing for them. The article above does not even have an author real name attached to it.

senecacaptain 03-10-2020 06:44 PM

My buddy at Frontier says their flights are pretty darn full.

I think the ULCC/LCC model is more immune to this. It is hard to make money when you fly 777/787's to Asia and Europe, and those PAX board via DFW and ORD, fed by 737/A320s.

the Big-3 model depends on the business traveler for revenue. Corporate America, Federal Government, and others are cancelling meetings and conferences, and embracing web conferencing/etc.

ULCC/LCC are possibly better able to endure this storm.

My opinion

Meep 03-10-2020 08:01 PM


Originally Posted by DrSteveBrule (Post 2993835)
Today's SeekingAlpha write up on SAVE was equal parts encouraging and completely frightening. Check it out...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...sk-high-reward

If things get as bad as this article
says all airlines will be in the crapper, not just NK.

mainlineAF 03-10-2020 08:01 PM


Originally Posted by senecacaptain (Post 2993916)
My buddy at Frontier says their flights are pretty darn full.



I think the ULCC/LCC model is more immune to this. It is hard to make money when you fly 777/787's to Asia and Europe, and those PAX board via DFW and ORD, fed by 737/A320s.



the Big-3 model depends on the business traveler for revenue. Corporate America, Federal Government, and others are cancelling meetings and conferences, and embracing web conferencing/etc.



ULCC/LCC are possibly better able to endure this storm.



My opinion



The problem isn’t flight loads now. It’s the demand in the upcoming months that has fallen off a cliff. No airline will be immune.

FNGFO 03-10-2020 08:11 PM


Originally Posted by mainlineAF (Post 2993945)
The problem isn’t flight loads now. It’s the demand in the upcoming months that has fallen off a cliff. No airline will be immune.

Correct. Current flights are already sold and paid for. Upcoming demand, or lack thereof, is what is driving all the actions of the various management groups. NK is betting this passes quickly for the moment, but that’s hardly a given.


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