​​​​A round robin like that would be an innovative way to meet the requirements and cut costs. It could be done in one FDP too.

So, some more very rough napkin math. Assuming a rough correlation of 4% market share to 4% grant entitlement, that's around $1 billion of grant money (25,000,000,000 * .04 = 1,000,000,000). I've seen numerous estimates on the flight hour cost of an A320, but generally in the $7000-$10,000 range. Assuming an average 2.5-hour block, and taking the middle of that operating cost range, we might be looking at ~$21,250 per flight (8,500 * 2.5). Suppose the company even had to double our current 56 flights per day to meet the government's requirements, that's an additional $1,190,000 per day (21,250 * 56), or $35,700,000 per month (1,190,000 * 30), or $214,200,000 for the six month period (35,700,000 * 6). Granted, this math is extremely crude, but ~1 Billion > ~250 Million.

Seems like they'd take the money?

 

I will also add this. If you look at May’s schedule (just look up random cities that we stop serving now) MSP, PDX, DEN and so on. You will see that (as of now) we will start those back up in about 4-5 weeks. So if we don’t get the exemption, all we are doing is starting those stations back up earlier to meet the requirements. I just do t see us doing 56 flights a day in May based on current May’s schedule.

 

Got it in my head that we were doing 56 a month. Early morning math error.

 

Well, the money can only allegedly be used for payroll. I guess they could plan to not spend whatever portion they don’t need for the six months and then use it for future payroll needs in a goofy numbers swap to make it look like it isn’t eventually used to cover operating expenses.

 

CLT would be good example of this being valid. The big boys aren’t about to dump their hubs. So it makes sense for airports like that. Or for ones that have 10 different airlines servicing them like Columbus.

Im sure everyone will put forth such arguments, and that the DOT will have to pick and choose a bit, but better to ask and win some than not and win none.

 

Right, and even though it's designated for payroll, you figure whatever they don't have to spend on wages can then go towards anything else.

 

Per hour cost is a little high I think. Our CASM ex fuel is 5.4 cents per seat mile. For a 2 1/2 hour trip which is about 1000 miles that’s $54 per seat. Times 182 seats on a 320 is $9828. That’s $3931 per hour. That’s all costs including Pilot salary, paying contractors, toilet paper at the GO, Bendo’s bonus, Ted’s guitar lessons, etc. Fuel cost is on top of that, but at a dollar a gallon it’s only about $4 more per seat. Which only reinforces your point that grant money will go along way for us.

 

Cheers, thanks for the better numbers.

 

Like I said in the other thread and was grilled for whatever reason, may schedules will have 1,2,3 4 days (maybe even 5) and will include a lot of cities we're not currently serving in April. so you're right to think that.

 

Alaska is doing exactly that. They are bringing their “milk runs” to the lower 48.

https://crankyflier.com/2020/04/09/a...-requirements/