Poor Mike; everyone was at his kids birthday, even the APA camera crew, except for Mike.

 

Wow, I totally forgot about that video. How depressing. I was at a WO before coming to Spirit and it was awful. I’m still very mindful to not have the “better than my regional” mentality moving forward here though.

 

You were saying in 10 years 50% will be years 1-3. But then acknowledge that 15% growth won't hold forever. So in all likelihood in 10 years well under 50% will be in the first three pay years. That's all.

And was too bad that FO was former CPZ as well

 

No, I said that IF they could sustain the growth rate of 15% per year, the bottom half of the seniority list would be three years or under. That’s just simple math. Fifth or sixth grade compound interest stuff. Something even a poser like you - someone not even old enough to HAVE an ATP - ought to be able to figure out.

 

That's what you said. Making it sound like it could certainly happen, hence the Kool-Aid comment. As for your fifth or sixth grade level attack, you can do better. While you're Waaaay off base on some of your claims, you're on point on some, so I know you can do better than that. Try again, take a mulligan

 

What part of AS LONG AS does your 22 year old poser brain not understand? And OF COURSE it could happen. The ULCC is gradually becoming the fastest growing model worldwide. But I said from the beginning that such growth can’t go on forever and it can’t. But ten years is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility - unlikely perhaps, but certainly possible. And in the interim, a younger pilot group with most people relatively low in longevity will save the company on payroll relative to pilot groups with less growth and more longevity, which is the point you apparently missed - along with the ability to do fifth or sixth grade math.

 

Sorry, but math not good....
In order to have half of the seniority list below you, the company needs to double in size, not grow 50%, so it takes 5 years at 15%.

 

I must have missed this story.

 

Swing and a miss Kool-Aid, but keep doubling down on your falsehoods in hopes of being right.

 

The issue isn’t half of the seniority list below you, it’s half of the seniority list on three years or less longevity for pay purposes. It was an illustration on why rapidly expanding airlines have lower payroll costs even if the pay rates were the same. The discussion was about median longevity of the pilot group as a whole, NOT seniority. For rapidly growing organizations median longevity will always be less than for slowly growing organizations, assuming equal (or very small) attrition rates. And among pilot groups at major airlines, voluntary attrition rates are fairly low, and after 4-5 years almost non-existent.

But yes, it would be 50% of the lagging three year number. That is, if 15% hiring occurred for the next three years, the increase would be 50% of today’s number of pilots, not the total pilots in the group after three years. Viewed from 3 years in the future, the bottom half would all be under six years longevity.