Attrition
09-16-2021, 04:09 AM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Position: Yes Ma'am, No Ma'am
Posts: 233
Originally Posted by phly
I always assumed those with no 121 pic would be kind of stuck at the first place they go.
You shouldn’t assume….. the 121 time is very valuable but it’s not the only route to the big time. There are plenty of 135/91K folks getting hired at the big 3 and purple/brown.
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09-16-2021, 05:01 AM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Position: Yes Ma'am, No Ma'am
Posts: 233
Originally Posted by phly
I always assumed those with no 121 pic would be kind of stuck at the first place they go.
As far as NK, anyone that wants a big3 job can get it…. 320 type and a degree = take your pick
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09-16-2021, 05:48 AM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Position: Left. Cool plane
Posts: 128
Originally Posted by Team Boeing
Do you think this looming pilot shortage will have any impact on Spirit? Are many pilots waiting for a call from the Big 3 or Cargo?
I don't mean to be a voice of negativity, however I have been in this industry over 20 years.
Kit Darby and countless industry forecasting organizations alike, have been touting a pilot shortage for over 25 years.
There is and will never be an actual shortage of pilots willing to work for Major and Legacy carriers. The data they present is inherent to "some" validity in actual age demographics and attrition but hinges on several mathematical fallacies driven by speculation. There will be aggressive periods of hiring and growth but all the forecasting models assumes a par-for-par replacement of individuals and aircraft and is combined with additional growth; which is extremely difficult to forecast. This is very dynamic and unpredictable industry that primarily is supported by leisure and discretionary travel. Economic downturns, pandemics, technology changes, consolidations, operational strategy shifts and various other factors constantly change the demand for pilots and aircraft.
The key in this industry is to have a bit of luck combined with persistence. Generally speaking, chasing upgrades, domiciles, or pay packages is risky. If your fortunate enough to land at an employer of choice, staying the course is one of the best predictors of future stability.
There is however reduced enrollment in pilot training programs as well as entry level regional airlines who are forced to reduce hiring preferences in order to meet demand. We had experienced this at my carrier over the last 2 years when we were forced to lower hiring standards to fill demand. We never however had any shortage of individuals arriving for class or completing training.
From what I have experienced there will always be opportunities, but opportunities for all and anyone will not follow the sales and marketing practices of forecasting entities that sell aircraft, training programs or in some cases hopeful pyramid schemes.
Last edited by Skycap876; 09-16-2021 at 06:05 AM.
09-16-2021, 07:40 AM
#27
It's 5 o'clock somewhere
Joined APC: Oct 2020
Posts: 1,852
Originally Posted by GrumpyCaptain
I’m just so confused how someone wearing a members only jacket to work one day becomes a double breasted gold button and hat wearer soon after…
09-16-2021, 09:21 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2019
Posts: 986
Originally Posted by Skycap876
I don't mean to be a voice of negativity, however I have been in this industry over 20 years.
Kit Darby and countless industry forecasting organizations alike, have been touting a pilot shortage for over 25 years.
There is and will never be an actual shortage of pilots willing to work for Major and Legacy carriers. The data they present is inherent to "some" validity in actual age demographics and attrition but hinges on several mathematical fallacies driven by speculation. There will be aggressive periods of hiring and growth but all the forecasting models assumes a par-for-par replacement of individuals and aircraft and is combined with additional growth; which is extremely difficult to forecast. This is very dynamic and unpredictable industry that primarily is supported by leisure and discretionary travel. Economic downturns, pandemics, technology changes, consolidations, operational strategy shifts and various other factors constantly change the demand for pilots and aircraft.
The key in this industry is to have a bit of luck combined with persistence. Generally speaking, chasing upgrades, domiciles, or pay packages is risky. If your fortunate enough to land at an employer of choice, staying the course is one of the best predictors of future stability.
There is however reduced enrollment in pilot training programs as well as entry level regional airlines who are forced to reduce hiring preferences in order to meet demand. We had experienced this at my carrier over the last 2 years when we were forced to lower hiring standards to fill demand. We never however had any shortage of individuals arriving for class or completing training.
From what I have experienced there will always be opportunities, but opportunities for all and anyone will not follow the sales and marketing practices of forecasting entities that sell aircraft, training programs or in some cases hopeful pyramid schemes.
Kit Darby and countless industry forecasting organizations alike, have been touting a pilot shortage for over 25 years.
There is and will never be an actual shortage of pilots willing to work for Major and Legacy carriers. The data they present is inherent to "some" validity in actual age demographics and attrition but hinges on several mathematical fallacies driven by speculation. There will be aggressive periods of hiring and growth but all the forecasting models assumes a par-for-par replacement of individuals and aircraft and is combined with additional growth; which is extremely difficult to forecast. This is very dynamic and unpredictable industry that primarily is supported by leisure and discretionary travel. Economic downturns, pandemics, technology changes, consolidations, operational strategy shifts and various other factors constantly change the demand for pilots and aircraft.
The key in this industry is to have a bit of luck combined with persistence. Generally speaking, chasing upgrades, domiciles, or pay packages is risky. If your fortunate enough to land at an employer of choice, staying the course is one of the best predictors of future stability.
There is however reduced enrollment in pilot training programs as well as entry level regional airlines who are forced to reduce hiring preferences in order to meet demand. We had experienced this at my carrier over the last 2 years when we were forced to lower hiring standards to fill demand. We never however had any shortage of individuals arriving for class or completing training.
From what I have experienced there will always be opportunities, but opportunities for all and anyone will not follow the sales and marketing practices of forecasting entities that sell aircraft, training programs or in some cases hopeful pyramid schemes.
09-16-2021, 10:34 AM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2014
Posts: 261
Originally Posted by Margaritaville
Just like the guys who flew an RJ one week, then the next week started class at mainline and were saying "scope the bastards out"!
In 1965, the RJ pilot of 2010 would have been hired onto a DC-9 at TWA, Ozark, Southern etc. He would have spent a career at a mainline organization
In 1995, that was sent to a permanent B scale intended to subsidize mainline pilots and the mainline company. That person might have spent an entire career there.
The RJ guys screaming for scope know by personal unpleasant experience what the two tier career invented by Delta to help their squadron buddies did.
09-16-2021, 10:36 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2014
Posts: 261
Originally Posted by MCDUmanipulator
so no pilot shortage is why AAG is throwing 180k at its regional pilots to keep them in their pipeline vs just hiring elsewhere?
What is your next question?
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