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Old 05-06-2018 | 03:52 AM
  #3971  
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They could have an infinite number of planes in order and it wouldn’t change the upgrade times.

You guys need to get real. Not trying to rain on your parade but just some basic math 101 would help you a little.

We’ve got 2154 pilots. Most junior Captain award is 1180. This means you have 974 pilots available to upgrade before you.

We are upgrading averaging 12 a month. You’ll have to wait 81 months to get the award.

Unless the upgrades stabilized at 16 or 25 month year around you are not going to see 3-4 year UG no matter the airplane order.
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Old 05-06-2018 | 05:00 AM
  #3972  
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6-7 years seems seems considerably less than lifetime FO, no?
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Old 05-06-2018 | 05:02 AM
  #3973  
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Originally Posted by Av viii
They could have an infinite number of planes in order and it wouldn’t change the upgrade times.

You guys need to get real. Not trying to rain on your parade but just some basic math 101 would help you a little.

We’ve got 2154 pilots. Most junior Captain award is 1180. This means you have 974 pilots available to upgrade before you.

We are upgrading averaging 12 a month. You’ll have to wait 81 months to get the award.

Unless the upgrades stabilized at 16 or 25 month year around you are not going to see 3-4 year UG no matter the airplane order.
Right because no airline ever upgraded more than 12 a month......

If planes come quicker they HAVE to upgrade more than 12


Is this your first airline?
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Old 05-06-2018 | 06:20 AM
  #3974  
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Originally Posted by elmetal
Right because no airline ever upgraded more than 12 a month......

If planes come quicker they HAVE to upgrade more than 12


Is this your first airline?
Relax jr. They don’t ever have to do squat. They could announce 1000 planes coming 5 a year and they’d keep upgrades at average 12 mo. Yes, they can add space then I’d say they could even quadruple upgrades to 50 month.

No. It’s my 4th airline. Been doing this for almost 25 years.

Unless they build or rent more space and sims and hire more LCA, DE you can hang your hat on the fact that we are near training capacity.

Case in point, when they were cranking out new hires in the fall the time to IOE was very long. Lots of guys sitting for weeks. The training didn’t have room to absorb it.
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Old 05-06-2018 | 06:23 AM
  #3975  
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Originally Posted by FNGFO
6-7 years seems seems considerably less than lifetime FO, no?
Yep. And it’s better for those guys with the pay bump. Heck, if I hear guys made $200k in the right seat I’ll go back.
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Old 05-06-2018 | 06:36 AM
  #3976  
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Originally Posted by Av viii
Yep. And it’s better for those guys with the pay bump. Heck, if I hear guys made $200k in the right seat I’ll go back.
I don’t think $150k is out of the realm of possibility with a modicum of hussle.

I think a further large aircraft order will necessitate expanding training activities. 177 tails requires almost 2500 pilots, and at some point it puts a business adverse governor on operations. 15% growth at that number means 375 pilots trained a year and growing.

We’ll see what’s afoot with orders, mergers, acquisitions and whatnot.
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Old 05-06-2018 | 09:09 AM
  #3977  
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Originally Posted by Av viii
Relax jr. They don’t ever have to do squat. They could announce 1000 planes coming 5 a year and they’d keep upgrades at average 12 mo. Yes, they can add space then I’d say they could even quadruple upgrades to 50 month.

No. It’s my 4th airline. Been doing this for almost 25 years.

Unless they build or rent more space and sims and hire more LCA, DE you can hang your hat on the fact that we are near training capacity.

Case in point, when they were cranking out new hires in the fall the time to IOE was very long. Lots of guys sitting for weeks. The training didn’t have room to absorb it.

Relax, Sr. After 25 years you should be able to understand the concept that as an airline grows, so do their training departments. Do you really think they would have an 'infinite' number of airplanes on order and not build or rent more space and sims and hire more LCA, DE?
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Old 05-06-2018 | 09:32 AM
  #3978  
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Originally Posted by FNGFO
I don’t think $150k is out of the realm of possibility with a modicum of hussle.

I think a further large aircraft order will necessitate expanding training activities. 177 tails requires almost 2500 pilots, and at some point it puts a business adverse governor on operations. 15% growth at that number means 375 pilots trained a year and growing.

We’ll see what’s afoot with orders, mergers, acquisitions and whatnot.
No transition conflict. PBS. Staffing model is reduced.
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Old 05-06-2018 | 10:30 AM
  #3979  
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Originally Posted by Qotsaautopilot
No transition conflict. PBS. Staffing model is reduced.
Straight 72 hour guarantee and not spending all your per diem every day on beer gets you to $125k. A modicum of huddle without conflict gets you above that.

177x14 is 2478. I took PBS into account.
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Old 05-06-2018 | 11:47 AM
  #3980  
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72 hours at 5 year pay I meant to say.
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