Totally agree. Didn't realize we had hired 2700 pilots. Thats fantastic! I guess I should have known that since someone recently told me that we are fast approaching a point where half the pilot list was hired post merger.

 

The Category summary for 18-03 shows that we currently have 2251 pilots on the list that are junior to the junior most pilot included on the ISL. So, 2251 (+ however many were in the December new hire class) new hires since the merger.

Obviously , quite a large number of furlough returns during that timeframe as well. On the ISL, 1570 pilots were listed as Furloughed. On my visit to TK last week I was shown a chart that shows that number is now at 225 remaining, so that translates into almost 1250 pilots that have returned from furlough since the merger was announced.

As far as retirements go, on the ISL there were about 1550 pilots that have turned (or will turn) 65 by the end of this month.

So that nets out to just under 2000 pilots of growth. Prob a couple of hundred early/medical retirements, so call it about 1700ish of net growth since the merger was announced.

The problem is that most of the "growth" in flying recently has not required new pilots, as the company was able to use the benefit of increased efficiency they gained by getting rid of the 747. While all of the flights the whale did are still being flown, from a Manpower perspective, they are being covered dramatically more efficiently. I was one of those 747 guys and at this time two years ago they had only 1 flight a day for the entire ORD domicile, even though in Aug of that year we had 4. So, the ORD aspect of the 747 closing alone was prob like hiring 150 pilots. Prob a similar benefit (though maybe a little less) from the SFO side as well. Obviously the training associated with that and the PI flying days is causing massive issues, but it will be an extreme benefit to the company when it is completed.

Not sure we have the airplanes coming fast enough for immediate growth anyway, but the training issues alone have translated into an inability to grow even if we wanted to. We Probably have the widebodies coming for some growth (4 more 787-9s and 3 more 777-300s by next summer), but I don't think we do on the narrowbody side, since nothing has seem to come from the rumors of the used airbus aircraft that were so prevalent 3-4 months ago. I never heard anything about what happened with those airplanes, but the rumors coupled with the "time to start growing" Manpower Update, sure supported the idea of increased hiring, but that sure hasn't materialized.

Going forward, with the aircraft we are set to receive, especially beginning over the winter of 2018-19, we better be hiring at an impressive rate starting this Fall or we are going to have airplanes sitting around with no pilots by the summer of 2019.

 

I will bet you are correct

 

SFO 787 is the outlier for sure. Lots of W trips to Dulles and LAX artificially inflate SFO line values. Look at narrowbody line values all pretty low even in the large domiciles.

 

From a thread last month-
Rumor: UA looking to add 60 RJs

Take note, we have NOT hired 2700.

Again, it's pretty easy. Take a look at who was on the bottom of the ISL award-
Yost, number 12155
For Jan 2018.. he shows up as 10208 (out on Mil Leave.. stay safe!)
ATK, is the bottom pilot - 12496.

Difference of 2288. Throw in the fact that some of those 2288 were hired under the Continental side post merger but not part of the ISL.

No matter which way you look at it, our pilot group has actually only expanded by less than 400 pilots since the ISL/Merger.
Better than shrinking or staying the same.. but not crazy growth.

I'll stick with my bet!
Motch

 

I think the fact that we really have to debate/argue the point is telling. I get that some on here just have to be right/more right than the other guy. I just think its certainly not the kind of "growth" we should be cheering about.

 

Ok looks like the “growth” crowd is starting to see we are not growing the pilot group but becoming more efficient through attrition, that I agree with.

True growth, IMHO, is growth in ASM’s. ASM’s generate block hours, block hours generate pilot positions. Looking at the last 10-Q we grew mainline ASM’s about 4% year to date, mostly domestic. Not horrible but definitely not in line with the kool aid offered this year by our fearless leaders. If we were growing the pilot group by 4% we should have seen the seniority list grow by 500 pilots, but we didn’t.

I think we are going to have to wait until 2019 to see kool aid level of growth. Lots of narrowbody deliveries and increasing retirements. Let’s just hope the company doesn’t park older narrow-bodies, again.

And whoever said almost half the pilots are about to be post merger hires, PUT DOWN THE PITCHER OF KOOL AID!

via Imgflip Meme Generator

 

You just proved my point. 2288 pilots hired post-merger. Meaning post-merger. PLUS all the U-hires AND the returning furloughees.

I get your point. You are saying that we had 12,500 or whatever pilots on the SLI list, but that included HUNDREDS of pilots on COLAs and furloughed from both legacies. It also included pilots who HAD ALREADY RETIRED. So, in effect, we really only had about 11,000 ACTIVE pilots when the merger happened in 2010. So “POST MERGER” we have grown EASILY by 1,500 pilots net plus we’ve replaced all the retirees.

I think its funny that we made a point during our SLI to say those pilots weren’t active, and that should drive their placement, now we reference their placement on the list (as inactive pilots) somehow providing we haven’t grown.

 

End of the day, our Seniority List is only up by less than 400 pilots after 5+ years.
We can all throw as many numbers out there that we want, but 12155 at SLI and 12511(ish) today don't lie.

Yes, there were 1400+ UAL pilots out on Furlough (vol and Invol).. but some of those had actually been (re)hired at CAL. Then there were a couple of hundred pilots out on LTD and Mil Leaves.

BUT.. again, at the end of the day we have not grown this pilot group significantly since the merger.
I hope we hire more than we retire/lose next year. With those extra aircraft that are scheduled to come online in the Spring/Summer timeframe, we should. But we will know more in 12 months!

Motch

PS) Since you mentioned I proved your point about the 2288 post merger newhires..
Maybe we should find out exactly how many pilots retired in the same time.. to include deaths, firing and resigns.
I'll (again) bet-
About 2000ish, give or take a hundred.

 

Everyone has there own view. Let me, again, offer my counter point just for fun.


The ISL was not real. It represented nothing other than a legal accounting used to merge the seniority list. It was filled with pilots that weren't working and even some who were never returning. The fact that the list had almost 2000 pilots who were not really there distorts the figures immensely if one only looks at that as the barometer for growth.



The list of ACTIVE pilots is up over 1500 from 2012. Are we growing like "gang busters". . . no of course not, but 15% in 5 years is nothing to sneeze at.


Plus since 2010 we have gone from 710 planes to 744 planes at the end of this year, and next year we will hit 773 with the deliveries we know about. Meanwhile our fleet was 16% WB (115/710) in 2010 and at the end of 2018 it will be 19% WB (146/773) . Ask your friends at Delta how their percentage is working for WBs with the highest pay. (The numbers are only counting WBs that have top pay.)


Really if yuse guys r unhappy today, you're gonna need some serious 'ludes to keep working when times r bad