The 787s were ordered to replace 767s, older 777s (around 50) and 330s. No way in the world are they growing the widebody fleet by 30%+- in the next few years. They don’t know where to fly the 787s we already have on property.

 

One of the most pi$$ed off pilot groups (a320 cappy in particular) was UAL circa 2012 so trying to say UAL ALPA has a far superior working relationship with Mgmt is a very recent observation in terms of a 20 yr career.

 

Congratulations on having this decision to make! I wish you well wherever you end up. Nothing to add to the conversation otherwise.

 

To piggyback off the OP, what about a guy who is scheduled to flow to AA in about two years (Fall 2021)? Would it be worth pursuing UA (to either get there the same time as AA or at most a year earlier), or stick it out and flow?

This assumes a long term preference for the Southwest/West Coast and international flying; retirement in 2048.

 

Absolutely worth pursuing UA. When you do the math, financially it makes sense to leave for UA, or DAL, even up to the day you flow.

 

The key assumption with my post is that he follows 82Spukrams numbers.


Originally Posted by 82spukram View Post
So some easy numbers

At UAL approximate timelines:

LAX: NBFO... newhire or first BiD <probably on reserve>
756 FO: about 6 months <Not much movement off the top of the 756 list so stagnant category and probably on reserve for a couple of years>
787FO: 5 years (that’s an assumption that might not hold true) <probably on reserve for years>

You get the idea - if you chase career progression at the fastest pace possible at UAL you will be on reserve most of the next 10 years of his career until our huge retirement wave hits. Reserve living in base isn’t bad....if OP wants to commute then god bless him and go find a good crash pad.

 

Quality of life suicide can be accomplished at any airline. United doesn't have a lock on this career choice.

For those who think they can foresee their career path let me tell you about a time way back when.

 

I posted approximate timelines for LAX because the OP asked for that type of info.

If I was this guy and LAX is my plan I would bid 737 FO or 756 Fo because he should be a line holder around 11-18months. Although I am currently on the 320 I would not recommend 320 FO because it’s a small base. I would hold off on bidding WBFO for almost 10 years so I could be a line holder with a descent schedule. If I had 18 years to work here I would fly WBFO for ~3 years then bid 737 CA to finish out where I would be around 70% at that time I upgraded. I would attempt to not find myself in a position of being forced on reserve just for QOL. However the OP didn’t ask my opinion he just asked when he would be able to hold certain seats (if I read his post correctly).

Good Luck and I hope to see you here at UAL but the retirement numbers are just amazing over the next 5 years at AAL. IF the economy doesn’t melt down, or another war, or a flu outbreak doesn’t happen then Either choice is good. If anything major happens in the world it’s hard to say what OP’s career or any of our careers will be like. The current picture looks like in 10 years your relative seniority will be about the same at all three legacy just very fast movement due to retirements at aAL or DAL over the next five years vs steady retirements at UAL with potential growth and then in 5 years we have a large wave of retirements.


BTW to OP you asked about SFO: currently the timelines are about the same (within 6 months) because we had a big bid in December of 2018. We had a lot of movement so just holding a seat timeframes are pretty close to the same however before that bid if I remember correctly SFO was about 2 years quicker to hold a position and the progression to line holder was significantly quicker in SFO which I think is “normal” for long run.

 

Also to the OP if you pm your email address or phone number I will send you a “seniority graph” that will help you see timelines for seats and seniority ranges (hold the position, line holder, 50%, top 25%).

 

Just curious, how big is your LAX 320 base? How many CA/FO?