yeah......the last 4 months throws statements like these out the window. If you are that certain you are in for a depressing 12 months. I was that certain 4 months ago and here we are, I’m eating crow and trying to figure out what to do next.

lets hope we all stay out of the courts and spend as little time as possible on the street with our uniforms collecting dust.

 

Sorry I just checked in to see how the early out and separation programs were working and saw the 3900 number. Bad news for all.
As to business models, I got furloughed in 2003 and ended up evaluating business models/strategic plans for a bank in SoCal looking for investment opportunity. I've been able to keep working there since the company is super military friendly and really good as to work from home. We focus on bio tech, construction and entertainment.I don't follow the airlines but the process is always the same...Redo the strategy, redo the business model, restructure, resize. People come last in the plan. The business model is set already. That's how every banker I've seen in 18 years works the decision process.

But rule number one for any company that needs money (like UAL) is to come up with a new business model. You never size the company and then come up with a strategy, you always set the strategy and then size the company. That tends to be a 18-36 month set in concrete period since the banks don't want management to stray from the plan they bought into. So in our case, the business model is already set. Once you figure out the business model, which would take me a while since I don't know about the airline industry, you'll get a good feel for what the future looks like.
As to bankruptcy don't get too wrapped up in burn rates. The banks have already carved out their chunk so if we hit a certain point (I'd guess $12-15B) the banks will get their cut before the bankruptcy hits because of repayment terms, at least that's the way I've seen it which is limited to other industries.

 

Doesn't the guys who have received WARN notices also need official 60 day furlough notices if the company plans on furlouging them?

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I think it's only 30 days. 90 for the guys hired prior to the January date in 2016.

 

we're now well into the 90 day range w/ the 3900 figure

 

I thin BQ said the extra possible furloughs would be in 2021.

 

my bad. Meant that if we hit 3900 they’ll need 90 days minimum notice vice only 30 days.

 

4,352 pilots roughly 35.5% of UAL have not done their call to action, that’s pretty embarrassing.

 

I believe that the WARN Act requires a minimum of 60 days, so the 30 day limitation is now 60 days because Federal Law.

 

Some states it’s 90 days