This. And we need Europe to open and governors to lift quarantines. I think people want to travel, but they don’t want to travel to quarantine. A vaccine will help this, even if just psychologically.

 

I think this will happen sooner than later and we will start to see bookings go up again. In the meantime we need these governors to stop with the quarantine nonsense. There’s already information out there indicating the virus is starting to either drop or level off amongst the southern states.
A theory I have read stated that the initial outbreak states were infected first like the northeast , California, and Washington because of direct flights from China and or Europe to a certain degree. These states eventually developed herd immunity, that’s why we aren’t seeing it spike despite riots and such there. Now the southern states which weren’t initially affected are going through the same process. So herd immunity will come soon there as well. Hopefully!
then our cases will be down enough and you will see international travel pick up as well.
maybe I’m being too optimistic? Time will tell, but in the mean time I’m not hanging all my hopes on a vaccine that may or may not happen in the same timeframe.

 

Also my point. If we shrink to 50% we aren't going to be a legacie business model anymore. People are saying that we are going to shrink by 3900 pilots and then discounting how much that will change our product. Multiple people are bloviating about "this will be my third furlough" without understanding how a furlough that deep will basically bankrupt and reshape United. I honestly dont think they will furlough that deep because of how challenging changing their entire business model will be.

 

Aquaticus,

I hope the number is far less than 3,900, but United has operated below that size not too long ago. United can and has operated profitably at a much smaller size.

Please look at the 3 quotes directly from the ISL award statements and consider the results of United's last downsizing efforts.


CONTINENTAL AND UNITED AIR LINES PRE-MERGER SITUATION
United made a conscious business decision to shrink in order to make money, shrinking its fleet size dramatically from 2000 to October 1, 2010. United had approximately 610 aircraft in operation in 2000 and only 359 in 2010, a reduction of over 40%.

On October 1, 2010, United had 7,699 pilots, of which 6,254 (81%) were active and 1,445 (19%) were furloughed. Of the active pilots, 2,575 were captains and 3,679 were first officers.

[During this time] UAL recovered swiftly, however, and earned about a billion and a half dollars from 1Q2009 to 3Q2010.


I hope we are not on the same path once again, but the company has done this before.

SP

 

What were UALs debt numbers back then? Anyone can shrink as long as debt obligations aren’t too high, but when you are owned by what you owe, you lack control.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

FWIW, at the time of the merger both UAL and CAL had virtually no unencumbered assets. (i.e. lots of debt) We've seen, and survived, this show before.

But yes, the creditors call the shots. In fact, there was so much overlap of creditors and investors that it was one of many reasons for the UAL/CAL merger in the first place instead of a different combination.

 

I believe the WARN notice will be the worst case scenario. That has to be done right now, if I'm not mistaken. The furloughs are not a given until someone gets notified.

In any event, my cynical side says all this "cost cutting" will lead to handsome management bonus payouts. The excuse will be, "We're contractually obligated to pay the bonus! What are we supposed to do?"

 

We could start by digging our heels in. Deep.

 

I'm quoting myself to emphasize this point.
If the company wants any concessions from the pilots, they'll need to discuss it with the man in the black dress.

 

Pardon? You really need to read up on the BK process because you don't understand it very well.

You think that going through the Chap 11 process is amazing? For whom? It sucks for everyone including management. And especially creditors and line employees.

And if there isn't a legitimate case for Chap 11, the man in the black dress will throw it out and not allow the company to file.

Chap 11 is a long sucko process and let's hope that no airline has to go through it. However, before United gets to that point, there will be others who will have already filed, including from my estimation at least one ULCC and one LCC. So if anyone thinks that ULCCs/LCCs are doing OK, they really need to pull up each airline's Q2 (lack of) earnings. They're all as bad as United. Some quite a bit worse.