I can see how some would be very inclined to believe the company wouldn't try to weasel out of a contract provision. Never underestimate how low they would go. The union has assured us the company has indicated it will honor that provision of the CBA.

 

theres a point where they can no longer pay back 20+ billion even running a perfect airline. That means bankruptcy. When you are bankrupt you must get people to buy off on a business plan. Good luck with that.....I wouldn’t say that Airline history is littered by incredible shrinking airlines......it may be litter with their picked over sun bleached bones. Which is what I’m getting at.

 

Great to see others get it too...
This 'announcement' was PURELY done for 2 reasons.
1) Politics... to scare Washington into CA2.
B) Union Busting... to scare the pilot group into concessions.

We have NEVER stated retirements of any aircraft. NEVER.
Some how, this '30%' reduction that was touted back in April has morphed into 3900 pilots needing to furloughed?!
Then we have 2250 WARN notifications and an Early Out & Furlough Mitigation plan that now turns out that NO Early Outs will mitigate furloughs as the ''2250" already took into consideration those who are retiring within the next year or so?!
And what good is a Furlough Mitigation if those 2250 are not the real numbers?

While I get that there may be a need for Management to put pressure on Washington for some sort of relief, I also realize how convenient it is for management to basically threaten EVERY Post Merger New Hire.. talk about dividing a pilot group.

IF we are in a state where we have to furlough up to a third of our pilots.. then not only is United Airlines screwed, our ENTIRE industry if ****ed and our country is probably in the toilet.

Stay Strong, Hang in There
and those still flying-
FS, FP & FtC
Motch

PS) Mako (MWR Officer-) needs to post a pic whenever he comments! Asking for a friend~

 

Exactly. Where are the WARN notices? At this point it cost them nothing to send out the additional 1650. Not saying they won’t be sent out but it’s the first step.

 

I think they're suggesting the deeper cuts are planned for 2021, so they can't send them yet. Would assume it would be tied to getting more senior instructors and LCAs qualified first. Not sure how much of this is fully legit based on revenue realities, how much is posturing for concessions, and how much is posturing for CARES II or whatever it's going to be called.

A whole lot can change between now and then and they're referencing late 2021 vaccine availability as a key factor. This seems pessimistic (but maybe also pragmatic) and it's far easier to shift towards fewer furloughs if things get rosy, while also keeping the psychological high ground in any negotiations with the union.

 

i spoke with my rep about that resolution. He said it was poorly worded and would have tied the hands of the MEC when negotiating with the company. My guess is it was a grandstanding ploy by a few people who for some reason don’t like Capt Insler. I have communicated my desire for no concessions multiple times and always have been assured that the majority of the MEC feels the same way.

 

If we furlough 3900 pilots + retirements +medical outs the airline is bankrupt and we will never be competitive again. We have too many fixed costs. Whats the next great idea?

 

Thank you. The contract specifies 120 days maximum for furlough notification so of course WARN notices haven't gone out yet. And frankly, if revenue doesn't recover fairly quickly, downsizing of pilots will go much deeper than 3900.

7-A Notice and Assignment
7-A-1 Any reduction in Pilot personnel shall be in the reverse order of system seniority. When
it becomes necessary to furlough pilots covered by this Agreement, at least thirty (30) days,
but not more than 120 days, notice of such furlough shall be given all pilots affected;
provided, however, that when there is no work because of an Act of God, labor dispute, or
other circumstances over which the Company has no control, pilots covered by this
Agreement may be furloughed without advance notice. Such pilots furloughed shall be offered
recall in seniority order.

 

You keep throwing around 20+ billion in debt as if the man in the black dress will allow that debt to stay on the books. He won't. You don't understand the bankruptcy process.

A lot of that's collateralized debt which will allow United to hand over the (impaired) assets to extinguish the debt.
Other debt will get converted to equity. Sure, there will be some debt upon emergence from BK, but it will be much less than 20 billion.

 

Then plan on chapter 7 for every airline then, because revenue's running less than 15% of 2019 numbers for most airlines. All of these airline managements aren't making up just how bad things are - it's real. And every airline will have to shrink massively if revenues don't improve soon.
I do not understand how people can read the financial numbers which aren't being faked, yet think that management is overplaying how bad things are. No, they're understating just how bad things are and chances are there will be some airlines that don't make it to the other side of this.