3900 (if not more)
07-31-2020 | 02:23 PM
#101
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Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
i spoke with my rep about that resolution. He said it was poorly worded and would have tied the hands of the MEC when negotiating with the company. My guess is it was a grandstanding ploy by a few people who for some reason don’t like Capt Insler. I have communicated my desire for no concessions multiple times and always have been assured that the majority of the MEC feels the same way.
I think most of us learned from whiteturd's missteps post-911 when he desperately tried to save the pension, all for naught. He gave away unlimited 70 seaters (you know, the ones 'we'll never see on the ramp') and pushed through massive pay cuts and work rule changes and the pension still got turned over to the PBGC. So screw concessions and if another MC tried to pull a whiteturd, a lot of us would be pushing for a recall.
07-31-2020 | 02:42 PM
#102
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Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 872
Likes: 34
Then plan on chapter 7 for every airline then, because revenue's running less than 15% of 2019 numbers for most airlines. All of these airline managements aren't making up just how bad things are - it's real. And every airline will have to shrink massively if revenues don't improve soon.
I do not understand how people can read the financial numbers which aren't being faked, yet think that management is overplaying how bad things are. No, they're understating just how bad things are and chances are there will be some airlines that don't make it to the other side of this.
I do not understand how people can read the financial numbers which aren't being faked, yet think that management is overplaying how bad things are. No, they're understating just how bad things are and chances are there will be some airlines that don't make it to the other side of this.
07-31-2020 | 02:55 PM
#103
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Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
My point was that there is no "other side of this" if we furlough 3900+ pilots. The costs, the debt, our inefficient bloat... we won't survive. No one is saying they are making this up but we aren't going to magically be 50% the size and show spirit who is boss. Our one year lease at Willis tower will pay for their headquarters for a decade. They are a fierce competitor who has had 20%+ profit margins while we were sub 12%. They specialize in moving the unwashed masses who book 3 days prior and they do it really efficiently. We need to somehow survive this without killing our ability to compete.
It's bad, mkay.
07-31-2020 | 03:17 PM
#105
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Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 671
Likes: 8
From: CRJ FO
I think they're suggesting the deeper cuts are planned for 2021, so they can't send them yet. Would assume it would be tied to getting more senior instructors and LCAs qualified first. Not sure how much of this is fully legit based on revenue realities, how much is posturing for concessions, and how much is posturing for CARES II or whatever it's going to be called.
A whole lot can change between now and then and they're referencing late 2021 vaccine availability as a key factor. This seems pessimistic (but maybe also pragmatic) and it's far easier to shift towards fewer furloughs if things get rosy, while also keeping the psychological high ground in any negotiations with the union.
A whole lot can change between now and then and they're referencing late 2021 vaccine availability as a key factor. This seems pessimistic (but maybe also pragmatic) and it's far easier to shift towards fewer furloughs if things get rosy, while also keeping the psychological high ground in any negotiations with the union.
07-31-2020 | 03:20 PM
#106
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Joined: May 2012
Posts: 683
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From: Happy
I think that (U)LCC’s will come out of this. People will fly but watch their bottom line. Business travel will return slowly but not in the same form, amounts or shape. International will come back very slowly but will come back. United will come out of this I think but it will be important to find a way to make it work domestically and grow from there to something new ish. Just my thinking.
07-31-2020 | 04:18 PM
#107
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Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 280
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Prior to seven months ago, there was a huge pilot shortage. That translated to exceptional pay rates & work rules. Obviously now, there is almost no demand for our services. That will change, and the company knows this. The question is, will we as professionals with skills that cannot be easily “manufactured” quickly devalue our worth due to fear, or force the company to make difficult decisions that could easily backfire in a recovery?
I know what my time is worth. I have no interest in making management’s job easier. It’s just business.
I know what my time is worth. I have no interest in making management’s job easier. It’s just business.
07-31-2020 | 04:59 PM
#108
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Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,112
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From: SFO Guppy CA
My point was that there is no "other side of this" if we furlough 3900+ pilots. The costs, the debt, our inefficient bloat... we won't survive. No one is saying they are making this up but we aren't going to magically be 50% the size and show spirit who is boss. Our one year lease at Willis tower will pay for their headquarters for a decade. They are a fierce competitor who has had 20%+ profit margins while we were sub 12%. They specialize in moving the unwashed masses who book 3 days prior and they do it really efficiently. We need to somehow survive this without killing our ability to compete.
You are comparing apples to oranges!!! ANY ULCC cannot compare to any of the Legacies. Our business model is completely different than theirs. They do no real international flying. The Legacies do. They have a different customer base than the Legacies do. Our product is completely different than theirs, and that includes SWA. I’m not saying we’re better, I’m just saying that we’re much different.
07-31-2020 | 08:27 PM
#110
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 3,599
Likes: 205
From: 787
You keep throwing around 20+ billion in debt as if the man in the black dress will allow that debt to stay on the books. He won't. You don't understand the bankruptcy process.
A lot of that's collateralized debt which will allow United to hand over the (impaired) assets to extinguish the debt.
Other debt will get converted to equity. Sure, there will be some debt upon emergence from BK, but it will be much less than 20 billion.
A lot of that's collateralized debt which will allow United to hand over the (impaired) assets to extinguish the debt.
Other debt will get converted to equity. Sure, there will be some debt upon emergence from BK, but it will be much less than 20 billion.
