About 15 months ago we thought we were going to be getting 183 new planes in 2024
About 4.5 months ago we thought we were going to be getting 110ish new planes in 2024
As of this week we think we are going to get 61 planes in 2024

So, it depends on how bad Boeing (and to a lesser extent Airbus) continue to fall short of their delivery schedule. 787s are supposed to start coming again in the Fall (Origianlly the Spring) and new Widebodies always creates a great deal of movement. So, hopefully we will see Boeing get their act together by then on both the WB and NB side, but at this point we just don't know.

Now that is the near term problem that makes the next 12ish months difficult to predict. On the good news front we still have a crap ton of aircraft on order (it is just going to take longer to get them) and 500+ retirements per year. With those two things you should still see massive hiring numbers for many years to come. 2500 a year again? maybe not, but massive by normal metrics.

Finally, world events can turn things around quickly for both the better and the worse. Russia - Ukraine continues to be a problem or expands, things look worse. Russia-Ukraine dies down/ends and we can overfly Russia again, things look better. China invades Taiwan...... Middle East......... you get the idea.

We will get a much better idea of the rest of 2024 in late May early June when we see the classes start back up in July (or not) Right now everything they are saying is classes will start up again in July and happen every week (except some Holidays) through the end of the year. Once that happens and we see what the size of those classes are, then we will get a real idea of what the total will be for the year.

 

Did anyone attend the information session on Friday for CJO holders, or does anyone got the cliff notes of what all was put out?

Thanks

 

Did anyone attend the information session for CJO holders on Friday and have the cliff notes of what information the put out?

Thanks!

 

United meeting

• BI will resume in July, approved by management
• Prep for indoc: go to prep website (will be sent)
• July class emails out end of next week, start of May
• August dates will be emailed end of May, early June
• Those who interviewed the furthest back get priority, first in first out.
• They said the oldest CJO was “probably early December.
• Expect very “moderately sized” classes in July

 

If the oldest CJO is December; how large is this backlog? Has the airline been interviewing the entire time or did they throttle back once they cancelled classes this spring? On average, how may pilots do they interview and give CJO's to a month? I am sure there are a lot of pilots with a summer/fall availability date wondering if they will even get a class date this year?

 

No idea how big the backlog is, but I'm a late February CJO and was told by the recruiter not to expect anything this year most likely based on their current hiring projections and class sizes.

 

That is not at all what the word was at the CJO town hall. They seemed very unconcerned with anyone getting close to 12 months of waiting.

 

What was said at the townhall was:

They hired 2500 in 2022, 2400 last year, and this year they’re expecting 1000-2000 with moderately sized classes starting in July. Class date offers will be going out at the start of May. They’ve brought on 800 pilots so far this year up until the end of April. Preference will be given to those who have had a CJO and have been in the pool the longest.

 

FWIW: My recruiter said to expect a Late Fall/Early Winter class (not holding breath). I'm a 5/25 CJO.


Is anyone able to give insight on my FNG new hire CA questions below?

Will CA vacancies be available to bid for new hires?
Is there a lock period for awards? I vaugely remember hearing 12 months.
When can a new hire get an upgrade class, if awarded an FO position during indoc bid?
If a new hire is awarded a CA position, is he liable to be downgraded to FO if a more senior pilot bids for that CA position later?
Can the most junior CA lose a CA award and be downgraded? If so, how often will that happen, passuming no major economic events.

I'm very grateful to be in FO CJO pool. I'm not looking past anything. I just want to go to the indoc bid informed. Thanks!

 

Unsure on captain vacancies that far out, depends on deliveries and depends on how vacancies go. If there are unfilled CA slots in vacancy then company has 90 days to use those slots for new hires. Not liable to be downgraded unless displaced, if you’re a NH and awarded CA in class you can elect to give it up and hope someone bids it off you.

there were no unfilled captain slots on last vacancy however training is slow right now due to deliveries and it being summer flying time