Haven't you heard, there's new science in monetary policy....debt doesn't matter, printing more money doesn't matter. Free everything for everyone......let the grandkids figure it out.

 

I have a feeling those advocating for sub inflation pay rates are close to retirement. This strategy doesn't work for those with decades to go. Not to mention, one entity is an ongoing business who just passes on the inflation by way of increased ticket prices.

I still contend, to expect less than inflation is a fools errand. Pilots my be susceptible to being hoodwinked but not after the Tumi TA fiasco.

JMHO

 

I can’t say how much of a pay raise legacy pilots deserve, but I do have to say it’s getting ridiculous reading the numerous posts lately in all the threads from legacy pilots complaining about how much the regional pilots are getting paid and how the legacy pay raises have to somehow be compared to that.

Here’s an accurate pay comparison: At PSA, 1st year FOs make $60/hour. First year Captains make $97.50/hour. I’m a 4th year Captain at PSA making $107.50/hour (just $16 more than 1st year AA FO). These are the new rates, too. Not quite as rosy as most have painted on these forums. It is true that we are getting a 50% Premium until August ‘24. That’s how 1st year FOs are making $90/hour and I’m making $161/hour (3rd year AA FO pay). These temporary inflated wages aren’t in place because that’s what the company thinks we’re worth, or what they think we deserve. These temporary inflated wages are in place to keep us from running for the exits, to keep us from bailing to any of the other non-regional airlines that are on an unprecedented hiring binge. These rates are temporary and unsustainably high. To base your own pay increases on these regional rates seems unrealistic.

Someone mentioned 5th year+ captains making $215/hour and LCAs making $430/hour. This is true, but with one very important distinction. These rates only apply to those pilots who want to flow to American, but have not yet been selected to flow. In other words, the pilots who are making these amazing wages actually want to leave the company that is paying them these amazing wages. Someone mentioned these LCAs making more than widebody captains. How many widebody Captains out there making $350+/hour want to leave their company? The reality is those regional LCAs you point out that are making more than widebody Captains actually want to become narrow body FOs making $90/hour. And that’s something that seems to be lost in all these comparisons. Yeah, the money is good at the regionals right now, but we’d much rather be in the right seat of a legacy airplane despite the pay. And the pay won’t last. Come August ‘24 if I decide not to flow my pay as a 7th year captain goes back to $117.50/hour. That’s 7th year. How much do your 2nd year FOs make?

You say even with a 20% raise junior legacy captains ($250*20=$300/hour) would make less than regional captains (at best $215/hour at premium pay)? In your words that’s flawed thinking. I mean, I suppose you could if you spent your free time in FLICA strategizing and hustling to drop, swap and pick up premium and fly 90 hours to credit 120, while the legacy pilot spends their free time at the golf course, couldn’t care less about FLICA and credits 75. So you’re comparing apples to oranges. But if you’re a hustling type of pilot at the regionals, that’s probably the type of pilot you’ll be at the legacies…but making $100 more an hour. And again remember that $215/hour captain would rather be at the legacy no matter the pay cut. If not, they’re only gonna make $120/hour, give or take, and at that wage no amount of premium opentime hustling will get them anywhere near that junior legacy captain pay (even without the 20% pay raise you proposed).

 

Wages are usually not tied to inflation. 1979 inflation was 13.3% and avg wages only increased 8.7%. If everyone suddenly got raises that matched inflation we would magically see…more inflation. The only way to slow the price/wage spiral of inflation will be when all employers slow wage growth and people stop buying stuff. During the pandemic we saw “free money” and “free credit” and little to no productivity and supply. Credit is now tightening but people are borrowing against their massively inflated home prices and still spending tons in a relatively tight supply market with high energy prices. Everything is more expensive and will continue to go up as long as people keep buying it. We are not in economic “good times” and our society does not seem to reward financially responsible behavior…buckle up folks.

 

I’m not negotiating for everyone. I’m negotiating among a group of about 14,000 airline pilots. Our impact on the national rate of inflation will be nominal at best, and is nowhere near my primary concern. And yes, I do expect our wages to exceed inflation on DOS.

 

I really hope the pilot group is smart enough to know that even if it takes another year to come to a deal our leverage is only increasing and worth the waiting for a contract with gains that will affect the rest of every United pilot’s career and the industry as a whole.

 

Anything less than 20% is in fact a pay cut. We should all be talking about 30% DOS. That would in actuality be a real pay raise, and a modest one at that.

 

If this pilot group bites off on a shiny pay raise and fringe window dressings then we’ll continue to be the laughing stock of the industry.

 

It's even north of 40% to yield contract 2000 rates adjusted for inflation. In other news the difference between A380 and 777 captain pay is 41% right now. So, aside from demanding that the ALPA president be paid fairly, we have some catching up to do that doesn't even account for the pilot shortage. Haven't we become accustomed to prices doubling and tripling in a shortage? Indeed, the regional rates have doubled over the past few years, with the recent round accounting for 60% to 100% of that. This tracks closely with widespread goods scarcities.

Brethren, 40% is a baseline that merely almost restores contract 2000 pay. Considering the current shortage, the sky is the limit of course but to keep things based in reality we can look to the regionals. The raise should be nothing short of 40% to 70% over the next three years. Something like 40% straight away plus 10% plus 10% would satisfactorily cover section 3 for 36 months.

 

We’ll know where we stand pretty soon. If the polling data and emails to our representatives show that the majority want shiny new rates and window dressings, then that’s what they’ll negotiate. If the data shows that we’re willing to wait for a potentially superior deal, then that’s the path we follow. My money is on the majority agreeing that TA1 was a joke, but they’d rather have shiny rates and fringe than to wait for recalls, a new negotiating committee, and the time it would take to start over. My bet is still that we get TA1 without the concessions and new rates. A comfortable majority of the pilot group will have something that they’d vote for and Kirby gets his training department fully staffed for the expansion.