Experts have been calling for recession since the market slipped into a bear market starting in Jan 2022. Remember the “changed definition” of the term “recession” last summer? It has been a very politically charged term now thrown around loosely. Reality is:
Consumer still spending
Record home equity
Consumer balance sheet is holding up
Real estate ex west coast housing heating up again
Possible new bull market began Oct 22
Inflation has peaked and even though is elevated will continue to drop
Unemployment at historical lows ex tech on west coast
Bank crisis from last month may have been contained

Will there be another black swan? Eventually. However, 2023 is looking a lot better than the “experts” have predicted. Like I said, the most predicted recession in recent memory might mean we end up climbing the wall of worry.

 

What EXACTLY did the Fed announce? What’s your reference?

 

With all due respect, you don’t know what you’re talking about. Ed Bastian’s job is not to be a cheerleader. He has to face shareholders every quarter, and if he spouted these types of things as hyperbole he would not have a job for long.

 

Disagree to a point. If he is too negative it can be a self fulfilling prophesy therefore there will always be a more optimistic tone.

 

We had a recession last year in 2022. The 1st and 2nd quarters were negative GDP growth. United hired like crazy. Travel is booming and even though the overall economy might contract, United is replacing 400 RJs with mainline planes and we need to hire for years still. Pilots being hired today will have 10,000 pilots junior to them in 4 years. This doesn’t even include the 100-200 787s on order, of which only about 40 are to replace 767s.

If any pilots leave for a LCC they should be automatically ineligible for rehire. A friend left United for FedEx and called last week to see if I though United would rehire him, even though he has given up 4,000 seniority numbers in the 18 months or so since he left.

 

didn’t the White House change the definition of a recession? What would one actually look like nowadays?

 

It can only happen during a Republican administration. I’m sure that’s in the secret definition.

 

First let me say that I don't know that what you've written isn't possibly true. However, I subscribe to 45 different financial newsletters and attend 2-3 financial conferences each year (the 45 newsletters are the ones that consistently beat their respective indexes and have made me money and focus on a variety of markets and countries, and are what's leftover from the others I've dropped). And I feel comfortable saying that your above list is very very optimistic, and is not consistent with most of the data sources I follow. While I like your optimism and hope you're correct, I personally think we're closer to a significant recession than not. Our politicians (of all stripes) and media have become polarized to extreme levels and believe that their 'agenda-driven ends justify their means', so much so that we live in a world where the very vocal minority have taken leave of all rational thought and facts...and think it's ok.

It's not. And while this isn't the place and I don't have a lot of time, here are a few very basic thoughts that could inform not just current conditions, but future trend as well:

"Consumer still spending" & Record home equity"

Yes, but with borrowed money From the FED, see https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc (and there are MANY more sources) "Household Debt Rises to $16.90 Trillion; Credit Cards Pass Pre-Pandemic High
Total household debt rose by $394 billion, or 2.4 percent, to $16.90 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Credit card balances increased by $61 billion to reach $986 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic high of $927 billion; mortgage balances rose to $11.92 trillion, auto loan balances to $1.55 trillion, and student loan balances to $1.60 trillion. The share of current debt transitioning into delinquency increased for nearly all debt types .

"Consumer balance sheet is holding up"
Again, see above. I'm not sure what you're definition of "holding up" is, but it's different than mine.

"Real estate ex west coast housing heating up again"
First of all, a R.E. market that is 'heating up' does not necessarily portend good outcomes. From a big picture perspective, a market that is heating up into increasing delinquency rates and record-high debt levels should invoke concern and caution.
https://www.mpamag.com/us/mortgage-i...a%20year%20ago.

"Possible new bull market began Oct 22"
Possible, but not likely. My most expensive 2 newsletters deal with 'Distressed Debt', and while I can't share their proprietary data, it pains a less-rosy future for stocks in the near-medium term. Here's a couple generic ideas though:
S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights expects the U.S. trailing-12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate to reach 4% by December 2023, from 1.7% in December 2022 (see chart 1). This base-case scenario is more than double the current default rate and just shy of the 4.1% long-term average.Feb 16, 2023 see https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/...term%20average.

https://www.yahoo.com/video/huge-num...ie%20companies.

"Inflation has peaked and even though is elevated will continue to drop"
I assume you're referring to the headline CPI numbers. First know that the CPI formula (under all administrations regardless of political party in power) has been changed 25 times since Reagan was President (and the Bureau of Labor Statistics which publishes it has recently indicated that they're currently considering changing it again). Each and every change has resulted in a LOWER reported result. Hmmm. Having said that, any inflation level above 1.5-2.0% is very hurtful to banks, consumer spending, and many industries. I believe this inflation story is far from over personally.

"Unemployment at historical lows ex tech on west coast"
I would add the word "reported" to the front of your statement...as again, the definitions have changed over the past 3 years. And while true, these numbers have no where to go but up.

"Bank crisis from last month may have been contained"
Emphasis on 'may'. There are differing opinions on this of course, but the old adage that "the FED will hike rates until something 'breaks' has proven true", and something (Banking) has broken. And the concept that it may have been contained ignores the extraordinary measures that have been taken so far to try to prevent further spreading, and the cost of those measure MUST be taken into account when deciding if things are truly contained. And the cost is extremely high and is being ignored by the press and the public...and judging from your statement, by you as well. https://mises.org/wire/no-financial-crisis-not-over

In summary, you may be right, but count me among those who aren't so sure. And we don't have the time to discuss the many issues potentially affecting this discussion, that you did not mention.

But, I truly hope you're right.

 

I think you misunderstood his/her question. He/she was asking if we think UA if would stop hiring and would it be risky to leave a LCC, not leave FOR a LCC.

 

Anybody who leaves on good terms and wants to come back should be eligible for rehire. Why should they not be? People make poor choices all the time, including poor career choices. With regard to FedEx specifically, the emperor finally appears to have no clothes. The image they have always had of perpetual growth, downturn immunity, and as a secure lifeboat for downtrodden legacy pax pilots to jump into is currently being shattered. If someone that went there realizes they made a bad move and wants to come back then hell yes, hire them. They can only be more experienced and grateful than when they left.