If you always expect a furlough and have your ducks in a row before hand then you have nothing to worry about. Hindsight is always 20/20 but I think the bigger question would be, what if United never furloughed and I stayed at XYZ LCC because I was too scared? I’ve seen way too many people who got too comfortable in their current spot and stayed at a doomed airline because of various temporary reasons.

One guy I flew with at XJT said he couldn’t leave for Continental because he couldn’t take the pay cut for one year or go without insurance for 6 months. Where is XJT now? While a LCC is different animal than a regional, the odds of United going bankrupt and shuttering doors is slim compared to a place like Spirit or other LCC.

Again, if you prepare for the worst when times are good then the rough times, when they do come, aren’t so bad.

 

I was recently flying with a former COEX pilot and he showed me a picture of the new hire classes in the FOU.

”Hey, I know that guy. He had the chance to flow over in the 90s with me. Said he couldn’t take the pay cut. He’d be a 777 CA if he flowed over back then.”

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Over the course of my career, I've known a few people like this. When they say it's about the money, it's not about the money. There is almost universally something else going on.

 

Everyone who thinks a recession will not affect a major airline right now because of the forecast growth should go read the FedEx forums. They are parking planes, closing bases, displacements…

 

Recessions come and go. They typically last about 18 months. Kirby spent billions in bio fuel research, electric helicopters, boom jet initiatives, a flight academy, excessive executive pay, and over 8 billion in stock buybacks over the last several years. Not a peep about recession concerns. Now it’s time to pay the pilots the market rate already set by Delta, and suddenly he lost his checkbook. Recession!! blah blah. Same crap from every CEO. FUPM.

 

Some experts would say that we are already in a recession and really just looking for the soft landing at the end of it.

 

The cargo sector is getting hit a lot harder this time around unfortunately. Couple that with Amazon’s plan to fly their own boxes…..

 

That ignores the fact that Fedex been planing on parking their older planes, streamlining fleets and bases makes sense, and that there’s more air cargo competition than ever before. Kinda reminds me of when folks panicked because fedex did their annual hiring and training freeze for the holidays. Context is everything.

 

‘On top of that, Cargo is coming back to earth after the big Covid cargo boom that was unsustainable long term….. That’s context as well…

 

Fair, we all knew cargo would come back to earth after COVID. But we also know the post-COVID revenge travel will be in the same category. So now replace the word cargo with air travel, and the word COVID with post-COVID…

I don’t know about you, but I’ve got my recession savings ready to go.