Originally Posted by Turbosina

Yes. This exactly. (I'm one of them lol). To be more specific, if you look at the latest vacancy award, look closely at the distribution of the seniority numbers of people bidding for NBCA. Look at how many people in the 14K number range had their bids in. It's clear that the percentage of people who are bidding for NBCA, within that seniority range, is quite high -- in other words there are fewer people deciding to delay upgrade, than you would normally expect. Almost everyone in that range is bidding for the left seat.

To see this, compare the current distribution of NBCA bidders in the 26-07 bid to, say, the distribution of bidders from the last bid we had in 2024 before the new contract fully took effect. In some cases in the current bid, I'm seeing numbers that are literally sequential (like 14,536 and 14,537 -- not the exact numbers but I'm using that to illustrate a point).

To put it another way: UPA23 alleviated the two biggest obstacles to most people who were considering upgrading into a junior base: commuting and reserve rules. By providing positive space commuting for a solid year to first time captains (or a paid move), it made it soooo much easier to upgrade. Also, with the tremendous improvement to reserve, it made it much easier for people to tolerate life as a junior reserve CA.

So I think that's what we're seeing now. There's a lot less holding people back from upgrading, and with all the former CAs we hired, a lot more people who would like to get back to the left seat ASAP. That's why I think traditional estimates of future upgrade times are too optimistic. I hope I'm wrong though!

Originally Posted by kangs

I don’t think the idea that almost all prior OAL captains want to upgrade ASAP is quite that clear though, because there is something to be said about the better QOL of WBFO. In fact I’ve heard that a lot of the street captains from 2 years ago want to go that route when their seat lock is up

A better determination of all of this will be to see how junior WBFO/NBCA goes by the end of the year

Originally Posted by Turbosina

Yes. This exactly. (I'm one of them lol). To be more specific, if you look at the latest vacancy award, look closely at the distribution of the seniority numbers of people bidding for NBCA. Look at how many people in the 14K number range had their bids in. It's clear that the percentage of people who are bidding for NBCA, within that seniority range, is quite high -- in other words there are fewer people deciding to delay upgrade, than you would normally expect. Almost everyone in that range is bidding for the left seat.

To see this, compare the current distribution of NBCA bidders in the 26-07 bid to, say, the distribution of bidders from the last bid we had in 2024 before the new contract fully took effect. In some cases in the current bid, I'm seeing numbers that are literally sequential (like 14,536 and 14,537 -- not the exact numbers but I'm using that to illustrate a point).

To put it another way: UPA23 alleviated the two biggest obstacles to most people who were considering upgrading into a junior base: commuting and reserve rules. By providing positive space commuting for a solid year to first time captains (or a paid move), it made it soooo much easier to upgrade. Also, with the tremendous improvement to reserve, it made it much easier for people to tolerate life as a junior reserve CA.

So I think that's what we're seeing now. There's a lot less holding people back from upgrading, and with all the former CAs we hired, a lot more people who would like to get back to the left seat ASAP. That's why I think traditional estimates of future upgrade times are too optimistic. I hope I'm wrong though!

Originally Posted by St Exupery

This is a good analysis. I think the context of the past four years adds to your argument. The rapid seniority growth in the past 4 years has essentially put any pre-covid hire into whichever seat they want to be in(except WBCA). Those on the WB (assuming the flying suits them) are unlikely to go back to NB CA and will probably hold out until they can hold the left seat. A few of those WB FOs will take a CA seat in MCO or CLE or another base when they can, or their seniority gets them the NB schedule they desire. But typically a senior WBFO will be taking a QoL downgrade for a small monthly pay upgrade.
Then you have the post COVID hires that are either military or previous 121. I think the previous 121 CAs will take the earliest upgrade they can get to recoup a couple years of losses from leaving another carrier. The military typically chase the best QoL after dealing with military flying requirements for the past 12-14 years.

All of that to say, I agree that from now on, you will see time to hold NBCA slowly increasing. It will mostly be filled with seniority numbers of 14k and greater. The rate of deliveries will be the biggest factor in how long it takes to hold NBCA. Retirements won’t be nearly as big a factor. That will only affect top end seniority progression. Like those able to hold Caribbean turns from EWR or island flying on the west coast. Just my two cents which are worth what you paid for it.

Originally Posted by KnightNight

Lots of people in th lower end leave widebody because seniority in the seat stagnates. What I see happening currently is junior WB people are going narrowbody captain because of this but then they are generally replaced by more senior people

Originally Posted by Swakid8

‘Talk about stagnation, NBCA is hella stagnant unless you are in DEN/ORD…. I barely moved up. Looks like moving up 3 spots after this vacancy…. I am not complaining, I am in the seat and base I desire.

Originally Posted by KnightNight

Tail always wags a bit but doesn’t move much. Most movement I see is 50-80%, most ppl 30 or even 40% from the top hardly leave unless it’s to WBCA

Originally Posted by FriendlyPilot

I noticed the same thing. It was something like almost half the NBCA awards were 13,000+ seniority. I think that continues since we have been hiring pilots from airlines like Spirit etc where they were Captains there and probably want/need to get back to that payscale.

I think what surprised me the most was seeing 4-5 year seniority pilots getting EWR 756 CA. There is a lot of flying on that fleet and to be less than 5 years on the property flying left seat in a 767 is still something those of us hired in the 90s are bewildered that its still happening. Especially since 767-400 is WB pay.

Originally Posted by FriendlyPilot

I noticed the same thing. It was something like almost half the NBCA awards were 13,000+ seniority. I think that continues since we have been hiring pilots from airlines like Spirit etc where they were Captains there and probably want/need to get back to that payscale.

I think what surprised me the most was seeing 4-5 year seniority pilots getting EWR 756 CA. There is a lot of flying on that fleet and to be less than 5 years on the property flying left seat in a 767 is still something those of us hired in the 90s are bewildered that its still happening. Especially since 767-400 is WB pay.

Originally Posted by AF OneWire

The only time a 4 to 5 year Captain is going to see the -400 is a sim at TK. They are going to be flying 100% 10pm unaugmented departures to the UK or 757 domestic. For about 10 years. Every time they get close to the good flying senior guys are going to bid in above them.