It’s United- they’ll hire until the Friday before they furlough.

 

Strawberry is a moron troll. Please don’t engage.

 

Bottom 4K of the list should have their back up plan ready. Apps in at CFA?

 

I hope this is sarcasm…..

you are saying the equivalent an entire airline is going to shutdown? We didn’t even furlough durringCOVID and don’t permanently park a single airplane.

please tell me which fleets he parked to equal 4000? Oil is $100 a barrel was there 4 years ago too and a few years before that. The strait is temporarily shut down.

right now it’s been 3 weeks and politics around the world alare being played. No one has felt the full economic impact yet. Once that is felt the entire world will open the strait.

do you really think the entire Middle East is just going to foergo the billions and trillions of dollars they bring in from oil? Do you really think the rest of the world is just going to accept that the Middle East oil is gone?

the answer is no it’s all political posturing from world powers. The affects may last into the summer but the strait will be open by summer….probably by the end of the month.

 

Based on what evidence? What some CEO did 3 or 4 CEOs ago? Kirby has said he doesn't want to furlough because he won’t be able to take advantage of gaining market share while other airlines shrink.

The only pilot furloughs at United in the last 45 years were 9/11 and GFC and under Jim Goodwin and Glenn Tilton, two of the worst CEOs United has had in the last 100 years.. Almost every major passenger airline was furloughing during those times.

 

Did none of you see the last class that started this week? Over 75 pilots. But I guess we hire up until we furlough, even when we are losing 500 pilots a year to retirements.

GET YOUR HOUSE IN ORDER

 

didn’t all go to SFO 737?

 

What you say above is all technically correct? However, we both know how lucky we were.

First, if it wasn’t for Cares 1, 2 & 3 (US government literally saving our A$$). Things would’ve been much different. Many airlines, including us could’ve have filed bankruptcy and or shut down & completely liquidated.

Does that mean the industry would’ve been doomed? Absolutely not, it would’ve restarted back again with reincarnated and or new airlines. With new seniority lists and/or new contracts. Etc.

The timing of how Covid ultimately turned out for us (pilots) was pure luck and quite remarkable. It could’ve easily been much longer and much worse for all of us employees - most specifically pilots. You don’t remember Kirby literally crying on an employee town hall? I’m not saying I believe it was 100% real tears, maybe 50% an act 50% him really feeling some genuine emotions for the employees.

I’m not debating how bad or NOT bad it’s gonna get now. But your statement above is completely disingenuous and completely inaccurate in total context. We were extremely lucky how we came out of Covid. It could’ve easily been 1000 times worse for us pilots.

Yoy may or may not know this. Kirby is a gambler. He can’t walk into any Vegas casino because he’s been banned as a card counter for decades. He gambled and it paid off. It could’ve easily turned out much worse for us with the pathway he took.

 

^^^This^^^ Covid was a completely uncharted territory in this industry. Luckily it worked out. I realize that it was the first really bit industry “Uhoh” for a lot of the younger pilots, but they need to realize that how things went during Covid can’t be relied on for future events.

That said, the reference of a 4000 pilot furlough IF (big if) things were to take a really bad turn with current events would equate to approximately 20% of the current seniority list. That’s not a completely outlandish percentage. For reference, what percentage (not number) of pilots were furloughed as a result of 9/11?

The big advantage that furlough zone pilots have now is upcoming retirements. Furloughing at an airline as big as any of the current legacies is a very costly event for the company. Pilots would need to be furloughed for a substantial amount of time before it would be financially beneficial to the airline. Luckily, there will be over 1000 pilots retiring over the next two years… Over 3000 over the next five. That might be enough to fend off, or at least greatly mitigate, any damage to the bottom of the seniority list.

 

Kirby is smart, aggressive, and sitting on piles of money. If the oil stays high it's not just the airlines who are hurt, it's the full economy. What that means and how it's impacted with retirements is too difficult for my crystal ball. I'm just happy I'm at ~70% system seniority.

It's a good test to find out if Kirby's statements on furloughing is as laughable as Doug Parker's famous "I don't think we're ever going to lose money again."

Specialized equipment and tooling can't be rebuilt with imported slave labor.