flightmedic01

Yeah, I was one of them!

pilot64golfer

Great example. And why this is manpower negative for the company is that as soon as they make the schedules efficient for you, they make it harder for them to fill the flying with the available pilots. So the trip rig only benefits us. It either 1) pays us more for the same flying; or 2) forces higher staffing and more lines.

Both wins for us.

It kicks in Sept 2014.

pilot64golfer

Its not that simple.

Lets say the company predicts there will be vacancy bids from September to April for 300 pilot positions. Some will be Captains, some widebody FO.

Lets also say that they have a 777 Captain opening. A 767 Captain upgrades, so now they backfill, and a guppy Captain bids up to that seat. Then some guppy FO decides to bid up to Captain and all of a sudden there is a guppy FO position open.

So the company knows that these are the lowest positions and people will be leaving them to bid up, so they just fill them with new hires so that they have pilots to fly while these guys are going through training.

They don't plan on having 150 guys sitting around doing nothing.

NextPlease

Great thread. Add me to the pool under November 11-15.

cadetdrivr

Nope.

The company never plans on spending $$$ for no reason. If fact, in their desire to save $$$ two years ago they created their own staffing crisis today.

With ~150ish recent 737 CA bids those "extra" FOs will soon be paired into crews. We can already see the effect of this with an increase in block hours in EWR for June followed by another increase in July. While this also reflects the typical summer schedule, in this case the block hours are constrained by CA staffing.

APC225

That's what I heard as well. Hard to believe that the the limfac on growth for an airline this size is the failure to have the pilots distributed properly. Min staffing has always been the practice at LCAL then using 200% pay to surge through holidays, then weekends, and now entire quarters (Dec 23rd through April 20th was continuous 200% pay for pickups for one group). Looks like they stretched that too far and now we'll leave profits on the table during what should be the most profitable time of the year.

pilotgolfer

Now I see...yes the line construction value is based on credit pay.

MPAdriver

OK...I think I got it? Please feel free to correct me, but I think this is the way I'am read what you folks are saying.

The old business model for 737 ran very low reserves. That model is not working any longer due to new UCH model, so there are massive growing pains to align 737s into new model.

UCH is anticipating Lots of Vacancies in the "senior" seats (WB CAs and FOs as well as NB CAs).

To prepare to the "Lots of Vacancies" they are banking FOs in the 737/320/76T EWR fleets to backfill the as the flow starts to move to the "senior" seats.

Most new hires will be going into the 737 fleet since the training capacity is larger than the other fleets (when not conducting CA upgrade training) and since UCH is accepting deliveries of 737s.

IF this is the basics..then I have a quesiton (probably need a crystal ball for this one though:

When will the flow upward start and/or catch up with the large bank of FOs in the 737/320/76T EWR fleets.

Grumble

Simple answer, however fast guys retire, and then more people move up. Think of each retirement as a multi-step process. One guy goes off the top, another moves up to fill that seat, another moves up to fill that seat, another moves up to fill that seat, down to the last guy, etc. All at the mercy of training capacity and when guys retire. The age 65 guys are a known quantity, but you can't factor in the guys that leave early, or senior FO's that are happy where they are.

Case in point, flew with a captain the other day... GREAT dude. His plan is to stay in the 737 the rest of his career, which is another 15 years. He hated the long haul widebody stuff. He may retire early depending on how his wife's career does. Jumpseated on another flight, Guppy FO who was retiring next month. Never upgraded because he was perfectly happy where he was at. Lots of "wild cards" out there.

The movement will happen, but I have a feeling it will happen in surges. Ebb and flow. Trying to time it down to the month, or even within a quarter and you'll drive yourself crazy.

BaskingShark

So the question I have then...

Say you were awarded the 76T as a new hire (knowing full well they are disappearing soon, with the 757s ultimately being replaced by 737-900s)

What would your likely career track entail? What's the time frame for the pull down of those planes and what happens when you lose your seat because the plane disappears? What bidding rights would you then have? Just curious, as it may be relevant sooner than later...