Great thread. Add me to the pool under November 11-15.

 

Nope.

The company never plans on spending $$$ for no reason. If fact, in their desire to save $$$ two years ago they created their own staffing crisis today.

With ~150ish recent 737 CA bids those "extra" FOs will soon be paired into crews. We can already see the effect of this with an increase in block hours in EWR for June followed by another increase in July. While this also reflects the typical summer schedule, in this case the block hours are constrained by CA staffing.

 

That's what I heard as well. Hard to believe that the the limfac on growth for an airline this size is the failure to have the pilots distributed properly. Min staffing has always been the practice at LCAL then using 200% pay to surge through holidays, then weekends, and now entire quarters (Dec 23rd through April 20th was continuous 200% pay for pickups for one group). Looks like they stretched that too far and now we'll leave profits on the table during what should be the most profitable time of the year.

 

Now I see...yes the line construction value is based on credit pay.

 

OK...I think I got it? Please feel free to correct me, but I think this is the way I'am read what you folks are saying.

The old business model for 737 ran very low reserves. That model is not working any longer due to new UCH model, so there are massive growing pains to align 737s into new model.

UCH is anticipating Lots of Vacancies in the "senior" seats (WB CAs and FOs as well as NB CAs).

To prepare to the "Lots of Vacancies" they are banking FOs in the 737/320/76T EWR fleets to backfill the as the flow starts to move to the "senior" seats.

Most new hires will be going into the 737 fleet since the training capacity is larger than the other fleets (when not conducting CA upgrade training) and since UCH is accepting deliveries of 737s.

IF this is the basics..then I have a quesiton (probably need a crystal ball for this one though:

When will the flow upward start and/or catch up with the large bank of FOs in the 737/320/76T EWR fleets.

 

Simple answer, however fast guys retire, and then more people move up. Think of each retirement as a multi-step process. One guy goes off the top, another moves up to fill that seat, another moves up to fill that seat, another moves up to fill that seat, down to the last guy, etc. All at the mercy of training capacity and when guys retire. The age 65 guys are a known quantity, but you can't factor in the guys that leave early, or senior FO's that are happy where they are.

Case in point, flew with a captain the other day... GREAT dude. His plan is to stay in the 737 the rest of his career, which is another 15 years. He hated the long haul widebody stuff. He may retire early depending on how his wife's career does. Jumpseated on another flight, Guppy FO who was retiring next month. Never upgraded because he was perfectly happy where he was at. Lots of "wild cards" out there.

The movement will happen, but I have a feeling it will happen in surges. Ebb and flow. Trying to time it down to the month, or even within a quarter and you'll drive yourself crazy.

 

So the question I have then...

Say you were awarded the 76T as a new hire (knowing full well they are disappearing soon, with the 757s ultimately being replaced by 737-900s)

What would your likely career track entail? What's the time frame for the pull down of those planes and what happens when you lose your seat because the plane disappears? What bidding rights would you then have? Just curious, as it may be relevant sooner than later...

 

They are not disappearing. Only the LUAL 757-200s which are being replaced with 737-900 and MAX airplanes. All the 757 and 767s will be one fleet of over 100 airplanes, which is still a decent sized fleet.

 

You just have to wait 2 years and then you can bid something else that has a vacancy. I would expect by that time they overstaff/understaff in most positions will have evened out and there will regular small amounts of vacancies across the board.

8-D-1 Equipment Training Freeze

8-D-1-a When a Pilot enters training for a vacancy award, he may be ineligible to be awarded another vacancy for twenty-four (24) months if the number of training days (excluding days off) for the training he has entered is thirteen (13) days or greater, or for twelve (12) months if the training he has entered is less than thirteen (13) days. There shall be no restriction on his eligibility to be awarded another vacancy if training is not required.

8-D-1-b An Equipment training freeze shall also apply to a Pilot who requires training upon being hired as a Pilot or upon being recalled from furlough.

8-D-1-c An Equipment training freeze shall begin the first day a Pilot starts training, and shall apply to any vacancy bulletin whose closing date falls within the duration of the freeze.

8-D-1-d An Equipment training freeze shall not restrict a Pilot in a lower–numbered Equipment/pay band from being awarded a vacancy in a higher-numbered Equipment/pay band, pursuant to the bands described below:

1) 321/320/319FO, 737FO 2) 767/757FO 3) 747FO, 777FO, 787FO, 350FO 4) 321/320/319CA, 737CA 5) 767/757CA 6) 747CA, 777CA, 787CA, 350CA

8-D-1-e An Equipment training freeze shall not restrict a Pilot from bidding to a “new” Category (a Category shall be considered “new” for all vacancies with advertised effective dates within six (6) months of the advertised effective date of the first vacancies bid in that new Category).

 

Since most new hires can plan on the 737 or 76T, what does the training footprint/schedule look like for those two fleets? Is there an advantage for choosing one over the other?