Motch
I agree it's anybody's guess. At this point I expect the furloughs to come flowing back. Unless you can't stand being junior or you will have s hell of a commute. Reality is no matter where a furlough is at this point, they will make more money coming back to a CA seat at United.

Our first post merger hire was either Oct or Nov of 2012. My bet is a post merger hire will hold CA by the end of 2017. Not a lot of 2012 hires.....less than 50 so a 2013 hire will have a shot in 2017.....well come back and see who called it

 

Motch

Just a quick breakdown. If (and it's a big IF) they add just 300 pilots per year over the next 3 summers (~12700,13000,13300) a 2013 hire (Sept 13 for me) and assuming 76% continues to hold Jr. Captain then Spring/Fall 18 you will see post merger pilots hold captain.


This assumes they are hiring at max capacity at this time and cannot hire enough pilots to cover deliveries. My guess is something will give. And it is more of a 2020 timeframe but it could just as easily be late 2017 if they actually follow through on the plan as it stands today for a post merger pilot to hold Jr captain.

We all know this business is fluid and the constant is change. I think anyone who is in my shoes (post merger hire) should be happy if we don't furlough over the next 3-5 years.

 

This ^^^ keep a very close eye on what's happening in Europe at the moment folks. We are never more than one major world event away from a furlough.

 

Don't disagree with you at all Hoss, hopefully this turns out to be a "tempest in a teacup"

 

You mean like the late 70's recession, the first gulf war and the recession that followed, 9/11, and the great financial crisis?

Nah, it is a new world Hoss. Haven't you heard? All the airline CEO's are clamoring that we are in a brave new world, with a stable industry.

Where did I put that bottle.......

 

65---SIXTY FIVE!! New 737-700's are on their way plus a handful of 319's. those are new captain jobs as UAL takes flying back from the 50 seat segment.

Many FOs who could've held captain recently are settling into new widebody a FO jobs. They probably won't be moving soon.

The bids to fill those guppies will be large. Large bids go Junior pretty quickly. I think a post merger hire will be flying captain before next summer.

Even this quick upgrade is slower than what delta has experienced with their MD-80 in New York.

 

An aircraft order has never been cancelled or delayed?

 

That's always a consideration but I'm mildly optimistic this time could be a little different.

The 50 seaters are coming up on end of leases as well as major MX---and that's not even counting those with airframes that are simply timed out. And that's not even considering the RJ pilot shortage. Pay them what they are worth and suddenly the RJ economics don't look as rosy.

Last week UAL held a big investor conference and publicly announced that the replacement of the RJs with mainline will both reduce costs and increase revenue and is the central piece of the business plan. Think about that second and reflect on everything pilots have been saying about RJs all along.

If the economy turns, the "airline" (mainline + UAX) could simply stop growing, or even shrink a bit, but the net result could still be an increase in mainline flying.

 

Those are goos points. Plus these are end of the line NGs that can not be deferred beyond the manufacturing line. Now could we park some planes and still take these, yes. What is more at risk is deferment of 350s and 787s. Which is more problematic as they require more staffing.

 

65 new aircraft would mean at least 780 pilots as growth.. of which (again.. assuming) 60% would/could be Captains. So, you are looking at 468 Captains. Great. But.. when are these aircraft scheduled to come?! Will they all be here end of 2017 and will we not park any Airbus/Guppies?!

It's great to "plan" on being a 2 or 4 year Captain. But I also think people should look at numbers and facts before any speculation. I'm an '07 hire with 900 pre New Hire Post SLI pilots behind me. Reality is, I'm (probably) still over two years from holding Captain on the smallest equipment out of EWR. If I can hold left seat on the guppy in SFO next year.. well, won't take it. But have to believe that there will be many of those 900 junior to me who will take it. Not to mention many who are senior who have bypassed or will be off a seat lock.

Nothing against those who are dreaming of holding Captain and have only been here 3 or 4 years.. but just understand, that there are pilots who have been here 9 years and still can't hold it. Just saying.

Always
Motch