16-10V Final Posted
06-25-2016 | 01:55 PM
#41
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 481
Likes: 0
From: Airbus 320 Captain
You mean like the late 70's recession, the first gulf war and the recession that followed, 9/11, and the great financial crisis?
Nah, it is a new world Hoss. Haven't you heard? All the airline CEO's are clamoring that we are in a brave new world, with a stable industry.
Where did I put that bottle.......
Nah, it is a new world Hoss. Haven't you heard? All the airline CEO's are clamoring that we are in a brave new world, with a stable industry.
Where did I put that bottle.......
06-25-2016 | 01:58 PM
#42
Banned
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,629
Likes: 0
From: 756 Left Side
Motch
Just a quick breakdown. If (and it's a big IF) they add just 300 pilots per year over the next 3 summers (~12700,13000,13300) a 2013 hire (Sept 13 for me) and assuming 76% continues to hold Jr. Captain then Spring/Fall 18 you will see post merger pilots hold captain.
This assumes they are hiring at max capacity at this time and cannot hire enough pilots to cover deliveries. My guess is something will give. And it is more of a 2020 timeframe but it could just as easily be late 2017 if they actually follow through on the plan as it stands today for a post merger pilot to hold Jr captain.
We all know this business is fluid and the constant is change. I think anyone who is in my shoes (post merger hire) should be happy if we don't furlough over the next 3-5 years.
Just a quick breakdown. If (and it's a big IF) they add just 300 pilots per year over the next 3 summers (~12700,13000,13300) a 2013 hire (Sept 13 for me) and assuming 76% continues to hold Jr. Captain then Spring/Fall 18 you will see post merger pilots hold captain.
This assumes they are hiring at max capacity at this time and cannot hire enough pilots to cover deliveries. My guess is something will give. And it is more of a 2020 timeframe but it could just as easily be late 2017 if they actually follow through on the plan as it stands today for a post merger pilot to hold Jr captain.
We all know this business is fluid and the constant is change. I think anyone who is in my shoes (post merger hire) should be happy if we don't furlough over the next 3-5 years.
a 2013 Hire being able to get a Captain bid sometime in 2018.. all things staying the same.. I'll take that bet!
Unfortunately, I expect things will NOT stay the same. I expect we will see age 67 (+?!) and I also think we might slow down deliveries.
Last year I flew with a NewHire (half wing) and he was talking about 2 year upgrades! I told him how I was here 8 years and didn't expect to be a Captain in 2 years, and that I was also told the same thing as a New Hire (even though, we had 2 year Captains as CAL back in 07). But that isn't normal or reality. Better to plan on putting money away for a potential furlough because even if you have 1000 pilots behind you, you're not safe!
He's look was kinda sad.. but I think it's better to be straight with the Millennial Generation than to feed them $hit.
Always
Motch
Time to work.. got to get to Paris so I can watch Fussball tomorrow at the FanZone~
06-25-2016 | 03:16 PM
#43
Don't say Guppy
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,926
Likes: 0
From: Guppy driver
I forget lots of things these days.
We are living in interesting times in the industry, and UAL. We are taking deliveries of new airplanes, at a higher than expected rate, because the rest of the world is in a recession and they wanted to defer deliveries. We appear to be getting them for a smokin' deal. We also have lots of older aircraft that can be parked on schedule, or at an accelerated rate if circumstances dictated it.
Simultaneously, we are replacing RJ's with narrow bodies at the corporate level, and hiring too many pilots to staff the mainline.
Mainline COULD actually grow in the next downturn, but I would guess we would absorb some 70 seat RJ's at the mainline, and park 50 seaters faster. So instead of getting bumped to the street, maybe the more junior pilots will get bumped to RJ's, but at the mainline.
There will be change, and we get to participate.
We are living in interesting times in the industry, and UAL. We are taking deliveries of new airplanes, at a higher than expected rate, because the rest of the world is in a recession and they wanted to defer deliveries. We appear to be getting them for a smokin' deal. We also have lots of older aircraft that can be parked on schedule, or at an accelerated rate if circumstances dictated it.
Simultaneously, we are replacing RJ's with narrow bodies at the corporate level, and hiring too many pilots to staff the mainline.
Mainline COULD actually grow in the next downturn, but I would guess we would absorb some 70 seat RJ's at the mainline, and park 50 seaters faster. So instead of getting bumped to the street, maybe the more junior pilots will get bumped to RJ's, but at the mainline.
There will be change, and we get to participate.
06-27-2016 | 08:56 AM
#44
Thread Starter
Line Holder
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 1,200
Likes: 33
From: 777 CA
Anyone have any idea if it's a mistake on the Jr Man report and Cat summary that were just published? Shows a EWR 756CA going to SFO 787 CA seniority 7393! Something seems amiss. I know SFO is junior but......
06-27-2016 | 09:05 AM
#45
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 2,209
Likes: 6
From: 777
I checked this morning earlier, and it wasn't there, and not there now. They must have pulled it. Maybe a corrected version later today?
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