Accelerated retirements? What do you mean? So early retirements back then meant ~58, now it means ~63.
I’m just surprised we still haven’t reached the total number of pilots from back then.. I really thought we were at 3,000+ at this point.

 

Back then almost no one retired ahead of schedule now per union we have 50% more retirements every yr. Last yr alone over 100 retired vs 50ish

 

Age 65 went into affect Dec 13, 2007. The economy went south in early 2008. At UPS this was catastrophic for pilots. The over 65 engineers (prior Captains went back to the front left). They then stayed to 65 to recapture income as many of these folks stayed as SO's beyond 65. The economy, elimination of three seat aircraft and sudden surge of over 60 back to left seat stopped hiring in 2007. These conditions stagnated the line till 2015 so the pilot group numbers diminished. Now, as good as OCV is, many choose 12 month OCV even if staying beyond 60. Retirement age used to be 60, and nearly all went to 60. then very close to 65, now its dropping. UPS didn't anticipate the permanent OCV option prior to 65. Hiring was not enough to cover business growth and attrition higher than planned.
In next few years UPS will catch up if they choose. Don't know if they will. But the new domicile will limit the ability to train new hires to some extent.

 

From the 3 January 19 monthly seniority list to the updated seniority list on 14 August 19, I moved up 81 numbers.

ST's seniority list from November 2018 showed just 32 mandatory retirements in 2019.

"We're short crews due to OCV, airframe growth, block hour growth, training constraints and early retirements...so let's optimize schedules and manipulate biddable vacation weeks to obtain more productivity, which in turn causes more early retirements."

 

Just think of what appears to be right, logical, and UPS will do the opposite.

 

So for a new hire today, any educated guesses as to how many years on property before they could hold a junior Captain line?

 

4-6 yrs in the next 2

 

Isn’t that a 7ish year jump to the junior? Not saying that’s wrong, but looking at the APC posted retirements, what’s driving that shift?

 

UPS didn't hire for 7 years.

 

We're old, tired and coming up on flush retirement plans.