Airline Pilot Central Forums

Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)
-   Air Wisconsin (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/air-wisconsin/)
-   -   50 Seat Viability (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/air-wisconsin/128834-50-seat-viability.html)

Av8rPHX 04-07-2020 01:25 PM


Originally Posted by BRayW (Post 3026335)
They canít break the contract without going to court.

Sure they can. Google ďforce majeureĒ


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SuperFlier 04-07-2020 02:09 PM


Originally Posted by Av8rPHX (Post 3026369)
Sure they can. Google ďforce majeureĒ


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Theyíd still have to go to court. I agree they could make a good argument, but force majeure has to be accompanied by some other aspect, like UAL being unable to make payments. So far they have cash on hand, the bailout and an unknown future. A court would apply bankruptcy-like standards that would require a clear cut hardship in payment. Not saying itís not possible, but a court would decide.

Itsajob 04-07-2020 02:33 PM


Originally Posted by BRayW (Post 3026335)
Agreed. This is what Iíve been thinking. In a tough economy with low margins and no cash on hand I donít see any way that they could pay for expensive new airplanes more economically than running the aircraft that we have.
Secondly, as our management has said, we still have a strong and extendable contract with United for several years yet. They canít break the contract without going to court.

l really donít think that Kirby was saying that 50 seat flying will be a thing of the past by this weekend, but by the end of the recovery. If United files chapter 11, then all bets are off, but outside of that Iíd say that they have to honor a contract. Couldnít they use the 50 seat fleet during the recovery and then refuse to renew or extend the various contracts as they came due? You canít get rid of 300 airplanes in the UAX system overnight, but using them during the recovery until their contracts expire could be their plan.

GA2Jets 04-07-2020 02:54 PM


Originally Posted by Itsajob (Post 3026449)
l really donít think that Kirby was saying that 50 seat flying will be a thing of the past by this weekend, but by the end of the recovery. If United files chapter 11, then all bets are off, but outside of that Iíd say that they have to honor a contract. Couldnít they use the 50 seat fleet during the recovery and then refuse to renew or extend the various contracts as they came due? You canít get rid of 300 airplanes in the UAX system overnight, but using them during the recovery until their contracts expire could be their plan.

I agree. He was basically like, I think when this is all said and done 50 seat flying will almost all be gone. And fair enough. Of course when is this all said and done? God only knows.

In some sense he could be saying, when we are out of this, I'd like to not have 50 seat flying if I can.

Or he could be saying nothing. Isn't knowing nothing so fun?? 🙃🙃🙃

RAHkid94 04-07-2020 02:59 PM

You guys are starting to sound like the Compass board 6 months ago, grasping at any possible positive interpretation of a pretty black and white statement.

itsmytime 04-07-2020 03:02 PM


Originally Posted by RAHkid94 (Post 3026490)
You guys are starting to sound like the Compass board 6 months ago.


true that. Itís really quite funny.

Itsajob 04-07-2020 03:07 PM


Originally Posted by GA2Jets (Post 3026481)
I agree. He was basically like, I think when this is all said and done 50 seat flying will almost all be gone. And fair enough. Of course when is this all said and done? God only knows.

In some sense he could be saying, when we are out of this, I'd like to not have 50 seat flying if I can.

Or he could be saying nothing. Isn't knowing nothing so fun?? 🙃🙃🙃

I do wonder how some of those contracts read. If United makes a deal with a regional to cover a certain amount of flying, what happens when that flying goes away like it has now? What happens if the need to furlough comes up and flying is reduced for an extended period of time? What happens if the market no longer supports some of the routes? Can United decide to retire any aircraft that they own regardless if it is a 145 or a 777? Itís going to be an interesting year or two, with a bunch of suck thrown into the mix.

GA2Jets 04-07-2020 03:09 PM


Originally Posted by RAHkid94 (Post 3026490)
You guys are starting to sound like the Compass board 6 months ago, grasping at any possible positive interpretation of a pretty black and white statement.

What is black and white about what he said? Please do tell bc we would all love to know your insight into the obvious comment. The whole town hall was filled with "anything could happen" rhetoric, good and bad both. So please, tell us the obvious future would you?

RAHkid94 04-07-2020 03:20 PM


Originally Posted by GA2Jets (Post 3026500)
What is black and white about what he said? Please do tell bc we would all love to know your insight into the obvious comment. The whole town hall was filled with "anything could happen" rhetoric, good and bad both. So please, tell us the obvious future would you?

Itís painfully obvious he doesnít view 50 seat jets existing after the recovery. Does that mean there wonít be any 50 seat flying? Not necessarily, but thatís a pretty damn strong signal that they are looking to axe them. There are currently 3 regionals flying exclusively 50 seat jets for United, 2 of them are owned by United. Which one do you think is going to get cut when they reduce the 50 seat flying?

Remember, this isnít some analyst or middle manager making a ďguessĒ, this is the guy who ultimately makes the decision.

To put it into pilot terms, you have two alternates, and youíre discussing what youíll do if you donít make it in on your approach. Alternate one is barely above minimums and is further away. Alternate two is well above minimums and closer. The PIC says ďMy best guess is that weíll go to alternate two, I donít see a scenario where we go to alternate one, but weíll verify what the weather is after the go aroundĒ.

is it possible that you end up at alternate one? Sure. But the messaging is pretty clear that youíre going to alternate two unless something unforeseen happens. The PIC has a pretty good idea where theyíre going.

GA2Jets 04-07-2020 03:23 PM


Originally Posted by RAHkid94 (Post 3026508)
Itís painfully obvious he doesnít view 50 seat jets existing after the recovery. Does that mean there wonít be any 50 seat flying? Not necessarily, but thatís a pretty damn strong signal that they are looking to axe them. There are currently 3 regionals flying exclusively 50 seat jets for United, 2 of them are owned by United. Which one do you think is going to get cut when they reduce the 50 seat flying?

The only honest answer to that question is I don't know and neither do you. I bet SK doesn't even know but heck I could be wrong. Look. Life is nuanced. It is not definitely anything, it is not obvious anything. It is bad, for sure. It is dangerous for us and I wouldn't be surprised if we lose the company. But spare me the "it's obvious" talk.


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 04:08 PM.


User Alert System provided by Advanced User Tagging v3.3.0 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2021 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Website Copyright ©2000 - 2017 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands