Sure they can. Google “force majeure”


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They’d still have to go to court. I agree they could make a good argument, but force majeure has to be accompanied by some other aspect, like UAL being unable to make payments. So far they have cash on hand, the bailout and an unknown future. A court would apply bankruptcy-like standards that would require a clear cut hardship in payment. Not saying it’s not possible, but a court would decide.

l really don’t think that Kirby was saying that 50 seat flying will be a thing of the past by this weekend, but by the end of the recovery. If United files chapter 11, then all bets are off, but outside of that I’d say that they have to honor a contract. Couldn’t they use the 50 seat fleet during the recovery and then refuse to renew or extend the various contracts as they came due? You can’t get rid of 300 airplanes in the UAX system overnight, but using them during the recovery until their contracts expire could be their plan.

I agree. He was basically like, I think when this is all said and done 50 seat flying will almost all be gone. And fair enough. Of course when is this all said and done? God only knows.

In some sense he could be saying, when we are out of this, I'd like to not have 50 seat flying if I can.

Or he could be saying nothing. Isn't knowing nothing so fun?? 🙃🙃🙃

You guys are starting to sound like the Compass board 6 months ago, grasping at any possible positive interpretation of a pretty black and white statement.

true that. It’s really quite funny.

I do wonder how some of those contracts read. If United makes a deal with a regional to cover a certain amount of flying, what happens when that flying goes away like it has now? What happens if the need to furlough comes up and flying is reduced for an extended period of time? What happens if the market no longer supports some of the routes? Can United decide to retire any aircraft that they own regardless if it is a 145 or a 777? It’s going to be an interesting year or two, with a bunch of suck thrown into the mix.

What is black and white about what he said? Please do tell bc we would all love to know your insight into the obvious comment. The whole town hall was filled with "anything could happen" rhetoric, good and bad both. So please, tell us the obvious future would you?

It’s painfully obvious he doesn’t view 50 seat jets existing after the recovery. Does that mean there won’t be any 50 seat flying? Not necessarily, but that’s a pretty damn strong signal that they are looking to axe them. There are currently 3 regionals flying exclusively 50 seat jets for United, 2 of them are owned by United. Which one do you think is going to get cut when they reduce the 50 seat flying?

Remember, this isn’t some analyst or middle manager making a “guess”, this is the guy who ultimately makes the decision.

To put it into pilot terms, you have two alternates, and you’re discussing what you’ll do if you don’t make it in on your approach. Alternate one is barely above minimums and is further away. Alternate two is well above minimums and closer. The PIC says “My best guess is that we’ll go to alternate two, I don’t see a scenario where we go to alternate one, but we’ll verify what the weather is after the go around”.

is it possible that you end up at alternate one? Sure. But the messaging is pretty clear that you’re going to alternate two unless something unforeseen happens. The PIC has a pretty good idea where they’re going.

The only honest answer to that question is I don't know and neither do you. I bet SK doesn't even know but heck I could be wrong. Look. Life is nuanced. It is not definitely anything, it is not obvious anything. It is bad, for sure. It is dangerous for us and I wouldn't be surprised if we lose the company. But spare me the "it's obvious" talk.